Player Movement Montage

Jason Michael Barker

There have been more deals since we last spoke, so let's jump right into some analysis, shall we?

The biggest move made this week (following the frenzy of transactions at the winter meetings, that is) was Chuck Finley signing with Cleveland. After spending his entire 14-year career with the Angels and listening to offers from the Mariners, Orioles and Yankees, Finley opted for a three-year, $27M deal with the Indians.

Normally there would be some concern about the durability of a 37-year old pitcher, but Finley has been an iron man over the course of his career relative to your average pitcher. He has never had any kind of arm trouble, has never had surgery, and over the past four years has averaged nearly 32 starts and 210 innings per season, all with a 4.03 ERA.

If that isn't enough to convince you that Finley still has it, consider his strikeout rate. Looking at a pitcher's strikeout rate over the course of several seasons is a quick and dirty way of seeing if he's losing his "stuff" -- if his K rate has drops significantly several seasons in a row, be on the lookout for a decline. Beginning with the 1995 season, here are Finley's strikeouts per nine innings: 8.6, 8.1, 8.5, 8.6, and 8.5. Sure doesn't look like he's lost anything to me.

Of course there's still the simple fact that not many pitchers are able to pitch effectively, if at all, into their late thirties. Finley will be 39 in the final year of his three-year deal, but he looks like the exception rather than the rule given his prior history, and by all accounts he keeps himself in terrific shape, so this looks like a good signing for the Tribe.

Earlier in the week, the Astros trimmed payroll (remember that big extension Craig Biggio just signed?) by sending Carl Everett to the Red Sox in exchange for prospects Adam Everett and Greg Miller. I'll get to those two in a minute, but first a bit about Carl. He'll step in and play centerfield for the Red Sox next season, and should be a huge upgrade over what they had last season.

The good news is that Everett (we're still talking Carl) has improved each of the past three seasons, finally putting together a very nice .398/.571 (OBP/SLG), 25 homer season in 1999. That's particularly impressive in the Astrodome, which tends to be favor pitchers. He's also a switch hitter, doesn't have a large platoon split to speak of, and is a pretty good basestealer (27 of 34 last season).

The bad news is that he's already 29. Now, that isn't bad per se, but given his age it's unlikely he's going to improve any further, assuming he follows the normal development pattern players go through. Of course, he might not be a normal hitter -- some players get better with age, finally peaking in their early or mid-thirties. In addition, even if he has peaked, assuming his numbers don't drop off too much, he should put up good numbers for a centerfielder.

Now on to the prospects, who are almost always of more interest to me. Everett (now we're talking Adam) is considered by many to be one of the better shortstop prospects in baseball, although thus far he's struggled at the plate. After a good 1998 in which he hit .407/.437 at low-A Lowell in 98 at-bats at age 21, he didn't fare so well in 1999, hitting .356/.385 for AA Trenton. He does appear to have good command of the strikezone (41 walks in 338 at-bats last season), and his defense gets very high marks from scouts. He could certainly use a year of seasoning at AAA, but he's better than what the Astros currently have in the way of shortstop prospects, and will likely be starting in Houston in 2001.

Miller hasn't received any press, but then again, how often do you hear about pitchers in low-A ball? Not that often, unless you really make a point of keeping up with obscure prospects. Nonetheless, he had a very good season at Augusta of the South Atlantic League (affectionately known as the Sally League). Just 20, he struck out 146 batters in 136.2 innings, with only 109 hits and 56 walks allowed. It will be interesting to see if the Astros start him at high-A or push him all the way up to AA next season, but either way he looks like a very good prospect (although the usual warnings about young pitchers apply).

This is the sort of deal that could wind up looking really one-sided in a few years if either Adam Everett or Miller develop into stars and Carl Everett doesn't perform for the Red Sox, but I think it should help both clubs. Boston helped themselves a great deal by upgrading in the outfield, and didn't really give up much in Everett, who was blocked by Nomar Garciaparra anyway, and Miller, a young pitcher who is far from a sure bet. Meanwhile Houston added two players with good upside, and was able to cut some salary in the process.

Finally, in a move that frustrated fantasy baseball owners of Calvin Pickering (myself included), the Orioles re-signed Jeff Conine to a two-year, $5.75M deal. Conine hasn't been good for three or four years now, and his offense (.335/.453) isn't acceptable at first base or designated hitter, his primary positions in 1999. With Conine, Will Clark and Harold Baines around to share the 1B/DH duties, it would appear that young Mr. Pickering, who is starting to not be so young anymore, is stuck in AAA for another year unless he gets traded. Note to general managers: trade for Calvin Pickering! The Orioles certainly don't want him.

Sure, his defense is horrible. But he can hit, I tell you, and isn't that all that matters if you play first base? Don't answer that, David Segui. In 1998, Pickering hit .434/.566 with 31 homers and 98 walks at AA Bowie. At age 21. He got off to a slow start last season due to an injury, but still managed .396/.468 while maintaining his walk rate at AAA, and he's ready for a starting first base or designated hitter job in 2000.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker thinks he's ready to graduate from college, but he's got another thing coming. Remind him that people in the "real world" don't get to sleep in until noon or eat Top Ramen or mac 'n cheese for dinner every night at jmb@strikethree.com.

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