Leadoff Ripoff

Matt Bruce

Last week I promised to explain why Kenny Lofton is overrated. Then I remembered the gruesome nature of his injury and how he sustained it. Diehard Red Sox fans crowed about how "they carried his arm out on a wheelbarrow." In the spirit of the holiday season, I will go easy on Kenny.

One reason for mercy is that I want to mention the new ESPN/MLB deal. I have no need to, since this week's Baseballhead column already covers the basics. I even have a bias, since my workplace became a subsidiary of ESPN a year ago. Then again, my fascination with baseball is the whole reason why I work where I do.

For those who share this fascination, anything that puts more baseball on the airwaves is a Good Thing. You may remember that ESPN has done Friday Night Baseball before. In 1990, one could watch doubleheaders on Tuesdays and Fridays, plus single games on Wednesdays and Sundays. Thanks to Friday Night Baseball, cable junkies saw Dave Stewart and Fernando Valenzuela spin no-hitters in the same evening.

The massive exposure lasted one year before ESPN cited insufficient profits and cut down on its coverage. Ad revenue apparently fell short of expectations. Depending on how you look at it, either ESPN or MLB screwed up. With a second chance a decade later, one can only hope they don't screw up again.

Speaking of screw-ups, the Colorado Rockies must have known about this week's column topic. This team, whose home ballpark causes everybody to overestimate its offensive prowess, signed Tom Goodwin, who will never be accused of having offensive prowess except in the wrong sense of the word "offensive." While Lofton is simply praised for the wrong reasons, Goodwin has collected accolades far beyond his achievements.

He is perceived to be a natural leadoff hitter, yet his career on-base percentage is .338. He has topped that mark just twice, posting a .346 mark in 1995 and setting a career high of .378 in 1998. He drew 73 walks in 1998, mostly the first half of the season, but has not walked more than 44 times any other season. (You may remember that his hot start in 1998 led to a heap of runs scored, for which "RBI man" Juan Gonzalez got all of the media credit.)

Let's assume Goodwin will rebound from an injury-plagued 1999 campaign and get on base about 34% of the time in road games. (He will reach base slightly more often in home games because on-base percentage is one of the many offensive statistics that Coors Field elevates.) The most effective leadoff batters get on base about 39% of the time.

Lofton had a .405 on-base percentage in 1999, with Brady Anderson close on his heels at .404. Chuck Knoblauch checked in at .393, Jose Offerman at .391, and Craig Biggio in a virtual tie with ex-Rockie Darryl Hamilton at .386. Compared to the best leadoff men, Goodwin reaches base one less time (and makes one more out) every 20 plate appearances.

If Goodwin gets 600 plate appearances, then he will reach base about 30 fewer times (and make 30 more outs) than an elite top-of-the-order guy would in his place, at home or on the road. This is not an extreme difference -- see my column on Nick Johnson a few weeks ago for an even bigger difference and a more detailed explanation of what I'm doing here -- but it does represent a direct loss of at least 20 runs.

His supporters will argue that he "steals a ton of bases." Unfortunately, it is impossible to steal without reaching base in the first place. A stolen base is worth somewhat less in a ballpark like Coors where it is so easy to score from first on an extra-base hit. The cost of being caught stealing is also greater in a park that inflates scoring. Goodwin has 252 career steals in 345 attempts, somewhat better than the 2/3 break-even point but not significantly so.

A stolen base does not affect the ratio of outs made to baserunners created, though it does give the player an extra base. Baseball already keeps track of total bases that a batter reaches of his own accord. Therefore, one way to measure the positive effect of a stolen base is to add it into slugging percentage (SLG). This is a very charitable thing to do, of course, since a stolen base only advances one baserunner, while a bases-loaded double gives four different players an extra base.

Like his career on-base percentage, Goodwin's career slugging percentage is .338. That's just under 34 bases in 100 at-bats, or 170 in 500 at-bats. If he stole 40 bases and somehow managed never to be caught at all, we could give him credit for 210 total bases compared to 500 at-bats, or a .420 slugging percentage. Players who topped that mark in 1999 without this statistical chicanery included Deivi Cruz, Jose Hernandez, Ron Coomer, Darryl Hamilton and Homer Bush.

That's right. Goodwin's career slugging percentage is nearly 100 points below Homer Bush's. (His 1999 SLG was .341.) There is no quick-and-dirty way to put into numbers the relationship between slugging percentage and run production. Since I'm too lazy to introduce Runs Created or Offensive Winning Percentage here, suffice it to say that Goodwin's profound lack of power will cost his team even more runs than will his inability to get on base, and far more runs than anybody's outfield defense could ever save.

Incidentally, the players who did the best job of reaching base in 1999 were not leadoff hitters (or even "leadoff types"), but rather, the players who did the best job across the board. Larry Walker led the league at .458, followed by Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Bobby Abreu, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, John Olerud and Tony Fernandez. Kenny Lofton ranked 22nd.

Perusing this list is one way to understand how the Indians did so well on offense last year. Ramirez reached base at a .442 clip, Thome at .426, Roberto Alomar at .422 and Omar Vizquel at .397. One would think that Cleveland could move Alomar or Vizquel into the top spot and teach a young power-hitter the basics of playing center field. (I want to see Ramirez out there, or better yet Richie Sexson. The comic value would far outweigh the marginal loss of defense.)

Instead, don't be surprised to hear the Indians tout a young speedster named David Roberts. Peter Gammons will tell you that Roberts stole 39 bases at AAA Buffalo last year, just as you probably remember Lofton's 60-steal seasons in the early 1990s. What he probably won't tell you is that Lofton has had an on-base percentage of at least .360 in each of his full major-league seasons.

Roberts has a career minor-league OBP of .387, but a .351 OBP for Buffalo in 1999 and just nine walks in 156 major-league plate appearances. How well he recaptures his earlier success at reaching base will determine just how desperate the Indians become to reattach Lofton's arm.

about the author

The phone number where Matt Bruce can be reached at 2 a.m. is printed on program inserts throughout the minor leagues. For a good time, send e-mail to mb@strikethree.com.