Youth Beats Experience

Dave Paisley

Last week, I took a look back at the over-35 All-Star team I selected this past spring. Turns out they mostly performed as expected, with a few notable exceptions. I also selected a team of 25-and-under players who I thought should be able to give the oldsters a pretty good run for their money. This is their story.

Let's take a look at the starting lineup to begin with:

Player Position Career
OPS
98 OPS 99 OPS
Kendall C .832 .884 .939
Casey (repl. Ortiz) 1B .764 .764 .938
Wilson, E. 2B .789 .810 .662
Rolen 3B .869 .923 .893
Rodriguez SS .907 .920 .943
Grieve LF .849 .844 .839
Jones, A. CF .791 .836 .848
Guerrero, V. RF .905 .960 .978
Garciaparra DH .898 .946 1.021
Average   .851 .882 .896

OPS = On-base percentage Plus Slugging average. Career numbers are pre-1999. Group averages are pro-rated for playing time.

First, note that David Ortiz' inability to play this year required a replacement, and I shamelessly appropriated Sean Casey. Remember I had to replace a couple of veterans, too, so this isn't unfair. Is it my fault Sean kicked a little tail this year? Overall, this is a spectacular offensive squad, except for Enrique Wilson, but I think they can afford to carry one weak bat. Maybe I should have played A-Rod at second and found a way to get Derek Jeter in the lineup. How good would that have been?

It is sad to see Jason Kendall's awesome numbers and realize he probably won't be putting up numbers like that again for a while. Vlad Guerrero continues to shine in difficult circumstances (especially with the Expos not liking walks and such -- dead last in the NL).

Gotta love this offense, and it's getting incrementally better.

Over in the rotation, things weren't quite so rosy, but that's frequently the case with young pitching:

Starters Career
ERA
98 ERA 99 ERA
Valdes 3.23 3.98 3.98
Elarton 3.32 3.32 3.48
Pavano 4.21 4.21 5.63
Hernandez 4.23 4.72 4.64
Colon 4.32 3.71 3.95
Average 3.86 3.99 4.26

It wasn't a great rotation to start with, and nobody really stepped it up this year. Bartolo Colon was widely hailed as Cleveland's ace, but a) that's not really difficult, and b) it was mostly because of his wins, which were largely due to great run support, not excellent pitching. Ismael Valdes managed to hold together in the maelstrom of the Dodgers' season, by not succumbing to "Park" factor.

Livan Hernandez continues to prove that he's either not that good or Jim Leyland really did burn his arm out in '97. Either way, it's not too pretty. Of the two relatively unknown quantities, Scott Elarton excelled, while Carl Pavano didn't. I should have listened to one of my astute readers and picked Kevin Millwood instead. (Go ahead -- give me that big fat "Told you so!")

If the rotation wasn't great, the pen was mostly a disaster. Could I really expect Ugueth Urbina to turn in another 1.30 season? Probably not, but ballooning up to 3.69 wasn't what I was expecting either. Sometimes Ugueth Urbina, sometimes not.

Bullpen Career
ERA
98 ERA 99 ERA
Urbina 3.32 1.30 3.69
Anderson 3.27 3.27 5.68
Escobar 3.50 3.73 5.69
Howry 3.15 3.15 3.59
Mantei 3.96 2.96 2.76
Average 3.44 2.88 4.54

Matt Anderson and Kelvim Escobar were both big disappointments. Here's an unusual feat -- Anderson gave up more walks than hits and more than strikeouts. And he struck out almost one batter per inning. Howry and Mantei almost make up the other two.

So while the pitching could have been better, it was still a smidge better than an average staff. Not bad for mere whippersnappers.

So how do the 35-and-overs compare with these guys? Here's a brief comparison:

Position Players Career
OPS
98 OPS 99 OPS
35 and over Average .830 .891 .883
25 and under Average .851 .882 .896

The offenses are pretty even, with the race almost too close to call. However, if I had to vet on them this next year I think I'd take the young guys, many of whom still qualify for the team.

Starters Career ERA 98 ERA 99 ERA
35 and over Average 3.31 3.37 4.18
25 and under Average 3.86 3.99 4.26

As I've noted, neither rotation performed particularly well, and that works out about even, and the same can be said for the bullpen.

Bullpen Career ERA 98 ERA 99 ERA
35 and over Average 3.69 3.88 4.62
25 and under Average 3.44 2.88 4.54

Now, for a final word, let's think about the cost of all this talent. The total payroll for the fogeys could easily top $150M, as several of them are in the $10M and up category. Meanwhile, the youngsters will eventually make that kind of money, especially if they keep performing at this level, but they aren't right now. I could probably field this team for about $30M (see, I knew there was a reason I didn't have Derek Jeter in there).

So the next time your GM trades for a few youngsters, remember the cost factors, and don't cry for that aging veteran traded to, say, Detroit. Just look at all that cheap talent coming your way.

about the author

Dave Paisley is grateful that ESPN will begin Friday Night Baseball next spring, for now he will no longer need to resort to renting "Police Academy" movies for fun. Share your Hightower impression with him at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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