Closer to the Heart

Matt Bruce

Earlier this week, major media outlets reported that Mike Jackson would sign with the Phillies if he passed a physical. Another news story indicated that Kenny Lofton may be out until June because of his head-first slide in Game 5 of the Division Series. By writing about these reports I can not only make my columns feel relevant but also find an excuse to rant about my least favorite archetypes in the "by-the-book" method of building a ballclub.

When ESPN.com relayed the Philadelphia News item about Jackson, it added the following news analysis: "Jackson, who will turn 35 next month, addresses Philadelphia's need for a closer. He appeared in 72 games last season and converted 39 of 43 save opportunities for the American League Central Division champions. However, his earned-run average was 4.06, his highest since 1990."

My first worry is that the copy writer saw fit to mention saves before ERA. Since this ordering seems to be consistent with baseball's current conventional wisdom, the choice of words is not bad reporting. Unfortunately, the conventional wisdom is itself flawed.

Let's look at Jackson's 1999 saves. First we check Cleveland's day-by-day performance. If you trust my late-night math skills, then 18 of his 39 saves came in one-run games. Nine were in two-run games, 10 were in three-run games and two were decided by four runs. All of these are final scores of games he finished. That means many of them could have been less close when he entered.

Now we check his personal game log. Sixty of his 72 appearances lasted exactly one inning. The three times he went more than an inning were all extra-inning situations in which he did not go more than 1-2/3 innings. Of his nine appearances of less than an inning, three were one-batter courtesy appearances in late-season laughers and two more were games he blew after starting the ninth.

Mike Jackson was therefore at least 10 times as likely to begin an inning as to enter a jam. He would pitch one inning, usually with a lead of two runs or more. Based on a random sample obtained through pointing and clicking, the Indians' hitters -- the most potent offense in baseball -- averaged almost (but not quite) two multi-run innings per game. Call it 1.8 crooked numbers per nine innings and we have evidence that the average big-league pitcher would succeed in Jackson's usual role at least 80% of the time.

All of my analysis is not meant to put down Jackson himself. It is just an indictment of everyone who overrates the importance of a guy like him. Sure, some pitchers will excel in the niche that Dennis Eckersley first created. It takes a lot of sustained domination, however, for that form of excellence to have anywhere near the value that baseball people attach to it. There are only a handful of Trevor Hoffmans (Hoffmen?) and Mariano Riveras (Riverae?) to go around.

The ESPN analysis continues: "The bullpen was a problem for the Phillies throughout 1999. Jeff Brantley opened the year as the closer, but underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in May. Wayne Gomes inherited the role and had 19 saves with a 4.26 ERA."

For those of you keeping score at home, Gomes blew five saves. He entered three of those games in the eighth inning. The other two times, he replaced some other pitcher who had begun the ninth. He allowed 35 earned runs in 74 innings; Jackson yielded 31 earned runs in 68 2/3 innings.

The real problem with the quoted passage actually goes far beyond comparing a pair of journeyman relievers. Does anyone else notice how the anonymous author implicitly equates "bullpen" with "closer"?

The 1999 Phillies had a bullpen ERA of 4.81, fourth-worst in the National League. (Their starters' ERA of 4.99 was also fourth-worst in the NL, but we're supposed to assume that Andy Ashby's arrival and Curt Schilling's health will fix things.) That figure includes 74 innings from Gomes but also includes more than 400 innings from guys like Bill Brewer (25 2/3 innings, 7.01 ERA) and Joel Bennett (17 innings, 9.00 ERA).

The Phillies' 493 relief innings included at least 300 from the sixth, seventh and eighth frames. Sure, some of these may have been in blowouts. Even if you took those out, there were more pivotal moments here, with tying and go-ahead runs on base or in scoring position, than a lone closer will ever face in a season.

Whether Jackson, Gomes or the Philly Phanatic adequately fills the closer's role will mean far less to fans at the Vet than the staff-wide effort to get a lot of outs without allowing a lot of runs. The guys who determine whether the effort succeeds will generally be 10 years younger than Jackson and earn a tenth as much salary.

Back in Cleveland, some fans probably already wonder how the Indians will replace Jackson. Writers will discuss whether Paul Shuey can stay healthy for an entire season and whether Sean De Paula can be as overpowering as he was down the stretch. Steve Reed should get a long look, while Ricky Rincon and Paul Assenmacher both look for a time machine and coast on their lefthanded fortunes.

The Indians would be wise to look downstate for an example of a well-run bullpen by committee. Scott Williamson, Scott Sullivan, Danny Graves and Dennys Reyes combined to allow just 127 runs in 379 2/3 innings, or about a run every three innings. (3.01 ERA to be exact.)

None of those four was born before 1970 and none of them may ever draw Mark Langston's paychecks. Although, 100 innings apiece may be a bit much for guys like this, at least McKeon is closer to the general idea than guys like Tony LaRussa will ever be.

There's a method to McKeon's madness, but that's the subject of a future column. The subject of next week's column will probably be the ailing Kenny Lofton and the myth that every team needs a speedy leadoff hitter. After all, Mike Jackson isn't the only overrated Indian (or former Indian). Stay tuned.

about the author

Matt Bruce can't walk by a kosher deli without thinking about Matt Mantei. Freudian psychologists are welcome to explain at mb@strikethree.com.