Total Reckoning

Dave Paisley

Welcome from the rainy, tear gas-stained, pepper-sprayed Pacific Northwest. You may have seen the recent mayhem on the TV news, but don't worry. It'll all blow over when Seattle natives realize that the World Trade Organization isn't here to trade for Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. It was an easy mistake to make, as the WTO opening reception was held in the new aircraft hangar, er, convention center right beside Safeco Field.

Fear not, though, your fearless Strikethree.com correspondents have several days worth of beer and food (OK, mostly beer) so the lines of communication will remain open even if the anarchists manage to overturn every single newspaper vending machine in the city.

Really, this is the most polite riot I've ever seen. I'm not sure it even registers on the Richter scale of violence. If the NBA championship riots when the Bulls and Pistons won rate a 3, and a full-scale English soccer riot rates a 10, then this is about a 0.03. Maybe.

But seriously folks, I promised you my report card from the AL this past season, and (unlike anti-WTO vandals) I take those promises seriously.

So here we go with a peek into the predictive capabilities of Dave "Karnak" Paisley.

Beginning with the AL East, here's what the damage looked like:

Team	Projected Wins	Actual Wins
NY	101	98
Bos	90	94
Bal	86	78
Tor	86	84
TB	68	69

Overall, one of my better divisions. Who am I kidding? I love this division! I was hardly the only one predicting the Yankees to win the division and the Red Sox to take the wild card, but it's nice to know it's possible to get something right. And look at the Devil Rays -- totally nailed those wins.

Interestingly enough, while the Orioles tanked relative to my predictions they outscored their opponents 851-813, and so should have won pretty close to 86 games. The Jays are actually pretty close -- without that early season slide things could have been different.

So I think I deserve maybe a B+ for the East.

If the East was duck soup, then the Central was like shooting fish in a barrel. (Which I've never done, by the way. I hear it's contrary to WTO rules. Anyway, I'm not willing to risk the sanctions.)

Team	Projected Wins	Actual Wins
Cle	92	97
Det	74	69
Chi	71	75
Min	71	63
KC	63	64

Hands up anybody who didn't pick Cleveland to walk away with this one. Hmmm, I thought so. I do love the way I nailed the Royals. Despite a flurry of runs, they managed to waste most of them. And the Twins, well, need I say more than "All-Star Ron Coomer"?

Please, someone put this division out of its misery. I'll take an A- for this one.

Moving on to the West, I need someone to put me out of my misery. Yes, in a rampant bout of homerism (no, not Simpson, although I do believe I will have a beer) I allowed the rosy glare to persuade myself that the Mariners could win the division.

Team	Projected Wins	Actual Wins
Sea	91	79
Ana	86	70
Oak	79	87
Tex	78	95

To be honest, if Jeff Fassero hadn't tanked like the Lusitania they could have won it easily. It isn't easy to have a good season when your "ace" racks up an ERA of 7-plus in two-thirds of a season of starts. Turn that 4-14 into even a mediocre 10-8 and things look quite a bit different. Still, without the crappy season, the Mariners wouldn't be looking forward to both Gil Meche and Freddy Garcia in the rotation next year.

Another fine mess is the Angels. With barely one batter over the .350 on-base and .500 slugging marks, it's little wonder that the offense was miserable. Injuries, off years and guys playing out of position hurt badly. Throw in a lousy year from big free agent acquisition Tim Belcher and some other poor performances, is it any surprise they dragged Terry Collins away in a straitjacket? And what is Mike Scioscia thinking? (Hey, aren't these sleeves a little long? And what's with the extra buckles?)

As for the rest of the division, I'm moderately proud of picking the A's for creeping up to respectability, while I completely missed the Rangers. I nailed their team ERA (right around 5.00) but underestimated their OPS by 60 points (worth about 120 runs). Hardly any of their regulars posted below a .350 on-base percentage, and good offensive years from Palmeiro and (blech) Ivan Rodriguez helped enormously.

Still, I was dead-on about their playoff performance.

So there's the AL story. Not a pretty sight -- I think maybe I deserve a D- for this one.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled riot...

about the author

Dave Paisley is positive that a more effective method of keeping the WTO delegates from attending their meetings would be to force them to look at the Mariners' projected 2000 roster. Suggest also 20-game packs at drdjp@strikethree.com.