Beltre's Budding Bounty

Jason Michael Barker

There wasn't very much baseball news last week outside of a couple of big trades, but an interesting story crept across the wire on Friday. It seems the Dodgers might have signed young star Adrian Beltre when he was just 15, when Major League Baseball rules prohibit signing players before their 16th birthday.

The Dodgers themselves notified the commissioner's office after team officials examined Beltre's birth certificate and learned that he was born in 1979, not 1978 as was originally believed. In a move that should come as no surprise, Beltre's agent (who just happens to be Scott Boras) filed a petition asking that his client be declared a free agent.

As an aside, I do find it interesting that Boras believes Beltre's rights were violated. As a young kid in the Dominican Republic, I'm sure Beltre had no complaints about the contract he signed nor the signing bonus he and his family no doubt received. It may be just a cliché, but it's often said the signing bonus is more money than he his father will make in his lifetime.

If Beltre is made a free agent, there would be quite a bidding war for his services. He was already a top prospect before this season, and his 1999 season did nothing to diminish his reputation. He hit .352/.428 with 15 homers and 61 walks, all in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. That he hit this well at what we thought was age 21 was a pleasant surprise, but that he actually hit so well at age 20 is nothing short of amazing.

Most players aren't in the majors at age 20, let alone putting up solid offensive numbers in a tough park for hitters, and Beltre's 1999 season puts him in pretty good company in terms of performance at such a young age. When Alex Rodriguez was 20, he was still playing at AAA Tacoma. Ken Griffey Jr. hit a robust .366/.481 at age 20, but it was his second season in the majors and he had the benefit of playing in the Kingdome. Andruw Jones hit .329/.416 as a 20-year old in 399 at-bats. Carlos Beltran, 1999 American League Rookie of the Year, was all the way down at high-A ball when he was 20.

The remarkable part about Beltre is that he's only going to get better -- his power should still be developing, as most players don't reach their full power potential until age 23 or 24, and given that most players don't peak until around 27 or 28, he's got quite a bit of room for improvement.

Beltre would command quite a bit on the open market, and the situation is made all the more interesting since most players don't get to taste free agency at such a young age. If I were a general manager, I wouldn't hesitate to offer him a ten-year deal, to lock him up through his peak years. How about $100M over ten years? By the end of the contract, it'll be a bargain for the best player in baseball.

We're getting ahead of ourselves a bit, though, since it remains to be seen if he'll be a free agent or not. Ultimately it will be up to Mr. Selig, but remember that this is the same commissioner who fined the Mariners because Pat Gillick calling John Olerud's parents "gave the appearance of tampering," although it wasn't actually deemed to be tampering.

This isn't the first time a team has signed a foreign player early, and it probably won't be the last. That doesn't make it okay, however. Clearly the Dodgers have violated the rules of Major League Baseball, and they should be punished for it.

Declaring Beltre a free agent seems a bit extreme, though, mostly because it unfairly rewards him for having signed early. Just as there are rules prohibiting teams from signing players early, there are rules governing when a player can be a free agent (and get the big free agent pay check), and Beltre hasn't put in the required MLB service time.

Instead, the Dodgers should lose a selection in the June amateur draft, perhaps a second or third round pick. That's severe enough of a penalty that it makes the point (i.e. "don't do it again"), but not overly so. It also gives them an ounce of credit for reporting the violation themselves, instead of trying to cover it up.

The Dodgers broke the rules, they got caught, and it would be unfortunate if it ends up costing them the services of a young star like Adrian Beltre. Nevertheless, if he is declared a free agent, I certainly won't feel sorry for them if Beltre winds up playing in Seattle.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is currently working on a chilling expose: "Authentic vs. Replica Jerseys -- What the Hell's the Difference?" Offer tailoring tips at jmb@strikethree.com.