Prospects for Domination

Matt Bruce

The New York Yankees have now won eight straight World Series games. Their fans will tell you that the correct number is 12, conveniently forgetting that stretch of seven games won by either the Cleveland Indians or Florida Marlins. Hair-splitting aside, eight is still impressive, or maybe depressive for those of us who rail against the Bronx Bombers.

Mere melancholia turns into despair, though, when we consider the possibility that the Yanks might win eight more World Series games in the next two years. Their moves this offseason, and especially next spring, will determine how far they go.

Over the last 25 years, New York teams have been built mostly on free agent signings and trades for established stars. Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield and even David Cone all came from other organizations while George Steinbrenner's lieutenants let their own farm system wilt. Impatience led to trades like the deal that sent Jay Buhner to Seattle for Ken Phelps, just as poor talent evaluation led to such costly draft busts as bonus-baby pitcher Brien Taylor.

The Yankees' recent championship run, however, has corresponded to a deep harvest of home-grown talent. Amazingly, for all that guys like Mariano Rivera have accomplished, the four biggest potential superstars remain in the pipeline.

Nick Johnson is the best of the lot. The Eastern League's best first baseman in 1999, Johnson is just 20 years old but already understands hitting better than most Major Leaguers do. His 52 extra-base hits and 123 walks for AA Norwich led to a .548 slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .525.

By comparison, Brian Hunter had a .277 on-base percentage for the Mariners in 1999. In other words, Johnson would reach base one more time (and make one less out) than Hunter every four plate appearances.

If the comparison were valid, then over 600 plate appearances Johnson would reach base 150 more times (and make 150 fewer outs) than Seattle's vaunted leadoff man. Since a typical Major League team scored at least five runs and left fewer than ten men on base in a typical game this year, a quick-and-dirty projection is that the 150 extra baserunners would produce at least 50 more runs.

Then we get to the 150 outs, which work out to about six whole games of extra scoring opportunities. Imagine a single lineup switch that generated 80 extra runs for a team. Then note that the 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks scored 908 runs, second-best in baseball; the Houston Astros, with 823 runs, were 17th best.

Of course, this comparison is a stretch. AA pitchers are not as good (and especially not as accurate) as major league pitchers. (Mind you, the Eastern League is the best pitchers' league of any of the five AA/AAA leagues.) But did I mention that Nick Johnson is 20 years old?

As he matures, he will adjust for the difference in pitching. For those of you scoring at home, Tino Martinez (who turns 32 next month) failed to reach an .800 OPS this year. Check who plays first base next year to see whether the Boss cares more about world titles than about his silly vendetta against Brian Cashman.

Although Johnson should unseat Tino Martinez, neither Alfonso Soriano nor D'Angelo Jimenez should hold their breath trying to win the shortstop job. Nonetheless, both players have had some experience at third base and second base. Jimenez hit .327/.392/.492 and stole 26 bases at Columbus this year. Soriano struggled at Triple-A Columbus in the second half but hit .305/.363/.501 for Norwich.

League managers polled by Baseball America called Jimenez the best defensive shortstop in the International League and hailed Soriano as the most exciting player in the Eastern League. Meanwhile in the Bronx, the excitement generated by Scott Brosius will probably vanish as quickly as Chuck Knoblauch's defense did.

Few teams in baseball have three high-level position prospects as good as these three. The best ones are almost all outfielders, and none with the reputed defensive prowess of Johnson, Jimenez and Soriano. Then we get to pitcher Ed Yarnall. I could tell you about Yarnall's 13-4 record, his 3.47 ERA or his 146 strikeouts in 145 innings at Triple-A this year.

All you need to know, though, is that he's lefthanded and that he was the key player in the trade that sent Mike Piazza from the Marlins to the Mets. Since the Yankees were able to get him for third baseman Mike Lowell, it would make sense for Steinbrenner to spend more time listening to the man who swung that deal and less time listening to his brother-in-law.

This is not to say that Yarnall ought to crack the rotation right away. Cone, El Duque and company seemed invincible in the postseason, although middle-aged men lose their edge without warning sometimes. Even so, Yarnall could pitch long relief, assuming the role that Earl Weaver advocated for every hot young hurler. Scott Elarton seemed to profit from that kind of treatment in Houston the last two years.

Keep an eye on these players next year. If they can work themselves into the Yankee mix the way that Javy Lopez and Ryan Klesko broke in with the Braves earlier this decade, then the juggernaut will roll on. Otherwise, somebody might have to find out whether Columbus has a Canyon of Heroes. My guess is that at the least, Joe Torre will be writing Johnson's name on lineup cards on a regular basis.

One other thing is worth mentioning about these four young men. My mom likes to send me newspaper clippings from Chicago area sports sections. Several columns she sent me last month suggested that the Cubs trade Sammy Sosa to the Yankees for some or all of those four players. That kind of column demonstrates just how myopic sports columnists can be. On the other hand, the man Jimy Williams once called "Georgie Porgie" has done crazier things before. Stay tuned.

about the author

Matt Bruce has invented the tastiest donut of all time, and is trying to swing a deal to sell them at Yankee Stadium. Explain that although it's known as "the city that never sleeps," folks still know when morning is at mb@strikethree.com.