When Managers Go Bad

Jason Michael Barker

Two games into the World Series, it appears the Yankees are going to be world champions once more. I suppose I should have known better than to pick against New York, but at the same time I can't help but wonder what Bobby Cox is thinking with some of his managerial moves.

For one, Cox doesn't seem to understand how important it is for players to get on base, particularly in front of his best hitter, Chipper Jones. Jones hits third in the Atlanta order, and Sunday night he had Gerald Williams (.335 on-base percentage) and Ozzie Guillen (.284 OBP) batting in front of him. Williams isn't a bad player -- he's a decent corner outfielder and hits lefties pretty well -- but he's a poor excuse for a leadoff man, while Guillen is a poor excuse for a major league hitter.

Saturday, Jones had Williams and Brett Boone (.310 OBP) hitting in front of him. Is it any wonder the Braves are struggling to score runs this post-season?

The biggest problem is that Atlanta doesn't have any high-OBP types to hit at the top of the order, although one possibility might be Andruw Jones. Jones' .365 OBP isn't exactly ideal for a lead-off man, but he'd be much better off hitting in front of Chipper than buried down at number eight in the batting order. Why he's hitting eighth at all is a mystery to me.

Statistical analysis has revealed that the effects of the batting order over the course of a season are not all that great -- as little as one or two games, even. But in the postseason you're facing only good pitching (without good pitching, your opponent likely wouldn't be there in the first place), and every run matters. The Braves have only managed three runs in two games, and while New York's pitching is certainly part of that, you have to question Bobby Cox's ability to manage his batting order.

Along the same lines, the Braves might have fared better against Orlando Hernandez in Game One if Cox had elected to start more left-handed batters. It's no secret that El Duque has a much harder time with left-handed bats (.794 OPS, compared to .594 OPS vs. righties), yet Cox started only one lefty, Ryan Klesko, and two switch-hitters in Chipper Jones and Walt Weiss.

Cox could have started Keith Lockhart at second instead of Boone, Greg Myers behind the plate instead of Eddie Perez, and Randall Simon at first, moving Klesko to left to replace Williams. Of course, there are two problems with those substitutions. First, Perez is Greg Maddux' personal catcher. Second, Randall Simon isn't on the post-season roster. But he should be, in place of third-string catcher Jorge Fabregas.

Moving on, Kevin Millwood had a rough time of it in Game Two, and I think the reason is fatigue. Millwood threw 228 innings during the regular season, and including his postseason innings he's now over 250 innings in 1999. His arm just isn't used to throwing that many innings (1998: 174 IP, 1997: 173 IP), and he clearly didn't have his good "stuff" Sunday night.

I think the same can be said for John Rocker, who pitched in nine straight games before getting the night off Sunday. Closers are used to regular work, but even the best of them get days off since their teams don't win every night of the week.

I really didn't intend for this to be entirely about the Braves, but it appears that's where we're heading. In addition to making some questionable moves, Bobby Cox has also suffered a bit of bad luck on two separate occasions.

Late in Game One, Brian Hunter replaced Ryan Klesko at first base for defensive purposes. The move backfired, as Hunter made two key errors in the eighth inning which led to two unearned runs for the Yankees.

That same inning, Cox brought in Rocker to face Paul O'Neill (.246/.297) with the bases loaded and none out. O'Neill struggled all season long against lefties, to the tune of a .543 OPS, and Rocker held lefties to a .429 OPS this year, so it's clear Cox made the right move. This one didn't work out either, though, as O'Neill singled to right.

Bobby Cox is perhaps simultaneously the most underrated and overrated manager in the game today. He's underrated in that he doesn't get the year-to-year respect for all the winning his Atlanta teams have done this decade, but he's also overrated because he doesn't get quite the criticism he deserves for little things like managing his batting order and carrying three catchers on the roster when another left-handed bat might have come in handy.

Revamped Prediction time: Yankees in five.

 

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is still feeling bad about not being named to the Mastercard All-Century Team. Explain that he might have made it if he had paid his bill on time to jmb@strikethree.com.