Wild (Card) Hair

Matt Bruce

The Reds and Athletics were the media darlings of the 1999 stretch run, though by now you've read the stories about how hard it will supposedly be for them to compete next year. Someone will complain that the American League has the same four playoff representatives this year as last year. It's easy to forget that, less than a decade ago, the Reds swept the Athletics in a World Series. Over the course of a little more than 20 years, baseball's entire set of teams has repeated itself.

Sure, in the past five years the American League has had a total of six distinct playoff teams. But three of them -- the Indians, Mariners, and Rangers -- never once made postseason in the 25-year era between the first League Championship Series and first Division Series. After 1995, the only teams waiting for their first playoff shot were the Rangers and Marlins; Texas made it a year later and Florida went all the way in 1997. Baseball brought us two expansion teams again in 1998, only to see the competently run one make the playoffs in Year Two.

Just for fun, here's a table of all 30 teams and the last time each one had made the post-season entering 1999.

NL East		NL Central		NL West
Atlanta	1998	Chicago	1998	Arizona	0
Florida	1997	Cincinnati	1995	Colorado	1995
Montreal	1981	Houston	1998	Los Angeles	1996
New York	1988	Milwaukee	1982	San Diego	1998
Philadelphia	1993	Pittsburgh	1992	San Francisco	1997
		St. Louis	1996

AL East		AL Central		AL West
Baltimore	1997	Chicago	1993	Anaheim	1986
Boston	1998	Cleveland	1998	Oakland	1992
New York	1998	Detroit	1987	Seattle	1997
Tampa Bay	0	Kansas City	1985	Texas	1998
Toronto	1993	Minnesota	1991

While I'm on the subject, and as long as my spreadsheet application is still open, I had an idea the other day. Baseball purists will bring us hypothetical standings every now and then, explaining how exciting the pennant races would be if we still had those four pre-Wild Card divisions. Actually, I have yet to see such a thing as of 1999. Maybe people just take the Wild Card for granted now. Even so, my curiosity went the opposite direction: What if the Wild Card had always been there?

Working backward from 1995 is easier in the American League than the National, because there aren't those two expansion teams (Colorado and Florida) to predate. One can pretend that the American League's 1995 alignment had been the same ever since Seattle and Toronto came on board. In the National League, however, splitting 12 teams into three divisions is almost silly. What makes this especially difficult is that the NL schedule of the 1980s and early '90s routinely grouped teams into traveling trios: the West Coast; the landlocked portion of the NL West; the East Coast; and the heartland portion of the NL East. Three of those trios are the nucleus of today's NL divisions. Then we put Cincinnati and Atlanta where they are now, but use Houston to round out the West. This is not a perfect solution, but nothing else makes more sense.

Now, all you need is a comprehensive almanac. The Major League Baseball web site has the info you need as well, although loading it is slower. For this exercise I used the Major League Baseball Encyclopedia -- no self-respecting baseball library is without one.

From the annual standings pages you get each team's final record from each regular season. Just assume that, despite realignment, the teams would finish with the same records. If we were being pedantic we'd see just how dubious the assumption is, especially since the NL had an unbalanced schedule. That said, we're only doing this for fun. There is no way to correct this problem that doesn't make the exercise needlessly complicated. It's hard enough for me to remember to put Detroit in the AL East and Milwaukee in the AL Central.

Without further ado, here are the first and second-place teams from each division (if we made the six-division alignment retroactive) plus the top two wild card teams, dating back to 1982. 1981 was the strike year and by that point I seemed to have enough data already. For compactness and reading ease, I've included the record of each playoff team and the number of Games Behind for the next best contender.

Year	NL East		NL Central		NL West		NL Wild Card
1993	Atlanta	104-58	St. Louis	87-75	San Fran	103-59	Philly	97-65
	Philly	(7)	Houston	(2)	Los Ang.	(22)	Montreal	(3)
1992	Atlanta	98-64	Pittsburgh	96-66	San Diego	82-80	Cincinnati	90-72
	Montreal	(11)	Cincinnati	(6)	Houston	(1)	Montreal	(3)
1991	Atlanta	94-68	Pittsburgh	98-64	Los Ang.	93-69	St. Louis	84-78
	Philly	(16)	St. Louis	(14)	San Diego	(9)	San Diego	84-78
1990	New York	91-71	Pittsburgh	95-67	Los Ang.	86-76	Cincinnati	91-71
	Montreal	(6)	Cincinnati	(4)	San Fran	(1)	Mon/SF	(6)
1989	New York	87-75	Chicago	93-69	San Fran	92-70	San Diego	89-73
	Montreal	(6)	St. Louis	(7)	Houston	(3)	Hou/StL	(3)
1988	New York	100-60	Cincinnati	87-74	Los Ang.	94-67	Pittsburgh	85-75
	Montreal	(20)	Pittsburgh	(2)	San Diego	(11)	Montreal	(5)
1987	New York	92-70	St. Louis	95-67	San Fran	90-72	Montreal	91-71
	Montreal	(1)	Cincinnati	(11)	Houston	(14)	Cincinnati	(7)
1986	New York	108-54	Cincinnati	86-76	Houston	96-66	Philly	86-75
	Philly	(21.5)	St. Louis	(6.5)	San Fran	(13)	San Fran	(3.5)
1985	New York	98-64	St. Louis	101-61	Los Ang.	95-67	Cincinnati	89-72
	Montreal	(13.5)	Cincinnati	(11.5)	Houston	(12)	Montreal	(5)
1984	New York	90-72	Chicago	96-65	San Diego	92-70	St. Louis	84-78
	Philly	(9)	St. Louis	(12.5)	Houston	(12)	Philly	(3)
1983	Philly	90-72	Pittsburgh	84-78	Los Ang.	91-71	Atlanta	88-74
	Atlanta	(2)	St. Louis	(5)	Houston	(6)	Houston	(3)
1982	Philly	89-73	St. Louis	92-70	LosAng.	88-74	Philly	89-73
	Atlanta	89-73	Pittsburgh	(8)	San Fran	(1)	Atlanta	89-73

Year	AL East		AL Central		AL West		AL Wild Card
1993	Toronto	95-67	Chicago	94-68	Texas	86-76	New York	88-74
	New York	(7)	KC	(10)	Seattle	(4)	Bal/Det	(3)
1992	Toronto	96-66	Milwaukee	92-70	Oakland	96-66	Minnesota	90-72
	Baltimore	(7)	Minnesota	(2)	Texas	(19)	Baltimore	(1)
1991	Toronto	91-71	Minnesota	95-67	Texas	85-77	Chicago	87-75
	Bos/Det	(7)	Chicago	(8)	Oakland	(1)	3-way tie	(3)
1990	Boston	88-74	Chicago	94-68	Oakland	103-59	Toronto	86-76
	Toronto	(2)	Cleveland	(17)	Texas	(20)	Texas	(3)
1989	Toronto	89-73	KC	92-70	Oakland	99-63	California	91-71
	Baltimore	(2)	Milwaukee	(11)	California	(8)	Baltimore	(4)
1988	Boston	89-73	Minnesota	91-71	Oakland	104-58	Detroit	88-74
	Detroit	(1)	Milwaukee	(4)	California	(29)	Mil/Tor	(1)
1987	Detroit	98-64	Milwaukee	91-71	Oakland	81-81	Toronto	96-66
	Toronto	(2)	Minnesota	(6)	Seattle	(3)	New York	(7)
1986	Boston	95-66	Cleveland	84-78	California	92-70	New York	90-72
	New York	(5.5)	Milwaukee	(6.5)	Texas	(5)	Det/Tex	(3)
1985	Toronto	99-62	KC	91-71	California	90-72	New York	97-64
	New York	(2)	Chicago	(6)	Oakland	(13)	Chicago	(12.5)
1984	Detroit	104-58	KC	84-78	California	81-81	Toronto	89-73
	Toronto	(15)	Minnesota	(3)	Oakland	(6)	NewYork	(2)
1983	Baltimore	98-64	Chicago	99-73	Texas	77-85	Detroit	92-70
	Detroit	(6)	Milwaukee	(12)	Oakland	(3)	New York	(1)
1982	Baltimore	94-68	Milwaukee	95-67	California	93-69	KC	90-72
	Boston	(5)	KC	(5)	Seattle	(17)	Boston	(1)

You can get the detailed results on your own but a few things stand out. First, the Mets would have just owned the NL East. Seven straight division titles is one shy of the Braves' dynasty. Davey Johnson's legacy would be all the stronger. Meanwhile, look how much closer the Yankees would have been in some races. In theory they fell a game or two short a few times; in practice -- well, in more practical theory -- maybe they would have pulled one off somewhere. I really hope not, though, since the hype surrounding a "subway Series" triggers my gag reflex.

1999 was the second year in a row of a wild card tiebreaker in the NL. In my model, the 1989 Cardinals and Padres would have a similar playoff. It's hard to recall particular characteristics of either team offhand (Tom Brunansky's brief Cardinal tenure comes to mind), though a moment's deep thought will stir up especially random memories. The Reds also benefit from some wild card appearances.

In the AL, the Blue Jays would have been grizzled veterans of the post-season long before 1992-93, perhaps making an improbable Series run from the wild card. The weirdest effect, however, is on the Twins. Several deserving Minnesota teams appear on the list, while the vagaries of realignment leave the '87 team where it belongs. What would posterity say about Molitor, Gantner, and Yount, had they made postseason appearances together after 1982?

Thought experiments like this one have no over-arching deeper meaning. I can only present the data for you to play with and rhapsodize. It's especially helpful if you have oddly detailed memories from the era; that is, if you're between 20-40 and have been a hardcore fan. If not, ask someone who is. We'll tell you more than you ever wanted to know about, say, Julio Franco. Just don't lock me up when I start describing his game-winning World Series home run in unnaturally vivid detail.

about the author

Matt Bruce is looking to start an off-season Strat-O-Matic hacking mass league. Claim dibs on Brian Hunter at mb@strikethree.com.