Baseballhead:
Division Serious

Michael Cox

This first 1999 postseason edition of Baseballhead is dedicated to the fans who remained for the entire Reds-Brewers contest on Sunday. The difference between Marlins fans and the Milwaukee faithful is that John Henry invites 'em all down to the deluxe seating while Wendy Selig-Prieb invites 'em to endure another game from the cheap seats.

Unfortunately, due to circumstances beyond my control I'm writing this prior to the Tuesday Game 1 tilts. So, before I make my Division Series picks I'll quickly make a couple of observations on Sunday's games and Monday's playoff:

In the Mets-Pirates finale, it was a shame that another one of those bad calls may have decided the Metropolitans' (and Reds') playoff fate -- this time the "phantom" double play to end all "phantom" double plays. It's even more of a shame that one of the new umpires had his name associated with the play in question.

Andrew Fletcher was the man who called Al Martin out when Martin beat Rey Ordonez' throw on Sunday, and both Fox Sports News and SportsCenter took the opportunity to mention the rookie ump. However, neither bothered to add that it was veteran arbiter Mark Hirschbeck who recorded the out at second base when Ordonez' foot was closer to New Jersey than it was to the bag. It was simply an exaggerated version of the "close enough" double play pivots that umps allow on a regular basis, as much a willful bad rule interpretation as it was a blown call.

Meanwhile, those shouting that Kevin Brown should have pitched Sunday's game against the Astros are as all wet as Sunday's Milwaukee turf. It wasn't Brown's turn in the rotation, so he didn't start. Simple, eh? Of course, starting Brown just to drag things out that much more would not be out of character for Davey "I Wish I Could Make Ten Mound Visits Per Game" Johnson. However, the omission of Gary Sheffield from the lineup was suspect, although it's just as likely that Sheffield whined enough about real or imagined injury (a la the back problems last spring that would have kept him from playing unless he was traded) to make it not Johnson's fault.

The Reds-Brewers, er, nightcap was a unique opportunity to view specific examples of that unique genus of human: the Brewer fan (note -- that was not a misprint of "genius"). Case in point: the guy behind the plate who periodically stood up, beer in hand, and screamed "Aaaaaarrrrgh!" for no apparent reason.

OK, before I get angry e-mail and dead rats via FedEx, I know most Brewer fans are great people. However, from the days when most people would attend Mariner games to watch the opposing team, almost every memory I have of drunk and disorderly opposition fans being escorted from the Kingdome in handcuffs were wearing Brewers caps. Not even Yankee or Red Sox fans were worse (usually I think they wanted to stay to see their team mop the turf with the M's). It's not that you're generally bad, it's just that you have a few more, uh, extreme examples.

As for Monday's playoff, it will suffice to call it possibly the most boring sudden-death game of the modern era, if not of all time, although the brilliance of Al Leiter saved it from being all bad. The Reds are a young team who, barring impatient or petulant ownership, will have more chances. So don't you fret, you Cincy kids, you.

So now, on to the Division Series. This is probably the most evenly-matched first round since the DS was added to the postseason, partly because this year the teams with the best records lost their right to play the teams with the worst records after the latter turned out to be from the same division. For the record, I don't see the harm in letting two teams from the same division play each other in the first round. It seems even more farcical to have them face off in the Championship Series, a la the Marlins-Braves 1997 NLCS. Anyway...

- Yankees vs. Rangers. The Yankees have been the Rangers' opponent all three times Texas has made it to the postseason, and the Yankees have lost exactly one game of the previous two series. On the other hand, the Rangers have done better this year than they had during the 1996 or 1998 regular seasons. On the other other hand, they're still using explosive hitting to cover for an implosive pitching staff.

The Yankees have really mastered the art of grinding out a playoff game, and I just can't bet against the Bronx pitching staff in a short playoff series. Yankee pitching beats Ranger hitting.

- Indians vs. Red Sox. Anything could happen here. Both teams are into intimidation: the Tribe like to have two or three of their monster hitters warming up on deck when they can, while the Sox plan on leaning on Pedro Martinez to the point of suggesting he could come back in Game 3. And again, we have teams with counterbalancing strengths and weaknesses.

If I have to pick, I have to go with Boston because of the Pedro factor, but I wouldn't take out a second mortgage to wager. Also, expect a quick ALCS exit if the BoSox do win.

- Astros vs. Braves. Good pitching, good hitting. The hitting is a wash, but the 'Stros have a slightly lesser pitching staff. I don't believe in "playoff jinxes," only in small sample size, so I'm not even going to consider the Greg Maddux Postseason Slump factor.

I'd be silly not to pick the Braves in the Battle of the South, even if my heart is in Houston.

- Diamondbacks vs. Mets. This one might be the easiest to pick. the D-Backs will be rested, the Mets not hardly. Arizona has a great pitching staff and the closest NL equivalent this year to Pedro Martinez (and see above for my thoughts on the Randy Johnson Postseason Slump factor), while New York has looked shaky of late when faced with reasonable pitching. The D-Backs aren't even bringing Travis Lee. The Mets will be proudly featuring Gold Glove Award-Winning Shortstop Rey Ordonez, while simultaneously wondering if he wouldn't do better if he went to the batter's box without lumber.

Barring another big-time D-back hitting slump and resulting Randy Johnson hard-luck losses, this one goes to Arizona.

I'll return next week with a look at the Championship Series, if I can get the anti-McCarver cotton out of my ears in time.

about the author

Michael Cox is disappointed that he won't be personally traveling to see these series, but is glad he won't have to endure the Fenway Park concession lines. Offer to hoist a Fenway Frank (mmmm-good!) to him at mc@strikethree.com.