Derek Lowe: Alien Prince

Matt Bruce

The aliens who possessed Jeff Zimmerman earlier this summer have moved on to Derek Lowe. From the beginning of July to the last week of September, Lowe pitched 56 innings, and allowed just 12 earned runs, 41 hits and five walks. He had saved 14 games through September 27, nine of them since August 1. Mariner fans are probably sick of hearing about how Woody Woodward gave up Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb, and even threw in Jason Varitek.

I noticed Lowe's stats at a Red Sox game in mid-September and was surprised not to have known the kind of year he'd had. Middle relievers with fantastic WHIP are my fantasy baseball savant talent -- a Rob Nen may be worth a mid-high draft choice, but a Jay Johnstone free agent pickup can win a roto pennant. Unfortunately for me, someone grabbed Lowe for saves back when Tim Wakefield returned to the rotation.

Wakefield's 1999 season, by the way, is enough for enemies of fantasy baseball to make a scathing indictment. He allowed 19 home runs and 72 walks in his first 136 innings. He went 5-9 with a 5.86 ERA in his first 17 starts. His 3.61 ERA as a reliever is an improvement, though 60 baserunners in 42 1/3 relief innings are nothing to write home about compared to the figures his teammates have put up. He has been worthless to fantasy players for most of the year, but priceless when he was getting the almighty save (14 of them to be exact).

If saves were as important in real life as they are in fantasy baseball, then the Oakland Athletics would have collapsed right when the talking heads wondered how they could possibly trade their closer. The Red Sox would have gone down with Tom Gordon's elbow. John Wetteland, who killed the Texas Rangers in the 1996 Division Series, would have given the Rangers revenge over the Yankees in the 1998 series. Slocumb's value would exceed Lowe's by a factor of Varitek, rather than the other way around.

Outs, of course, are what matter far more than saves. Each team has 27 to work with, three at a time. Someone with a good sinker who can come in and induce nine straight ground balls will take away one third of an opponent's potential offense. It's conceivable that Rod Beck may turn out to be a less useful stretch run pickup than Bryce Florie.

Florie was the man who filled in for Pedro Martinez the day Martinez was late to the park. He was lifted one out short of a win. Granted, he had four straight bad outings, pitching once a week from August 21 to September 13. But he did beat the Tigers on September 17 with four scoreless frames. He's the type of pitcher who can come into the second inning of a playoff game and keep his team in it through the sixth. That is to say, he's one of a hundred or so pitchers good enough to stay in the big leagues, but he's humble enough not to need vanity stats and not to mind bullpen burial. When you think of Boston pitchers, Pedro Martinez probably comes to mind immediately, but the Sox just might get away with stringing out the middle relief on the days that Pedro can't take the mound.

What I enjoy most is the fact that Duquette and Jimy Williams seem to have planned their roster this way. If Pedro can pitch every fourth day in the post-season then the other two starts might as well be Ramon Martinez and Bret Saberhagen on 60-pitch counts. Suddenly Tony LaRussa's old three-man rotation plan makes sense, with Lowe, Florie and even Tim Wakefield as "designated winners" on the second line. They even picked up the world's only luxury-class situational lefty, Kent Mercker, in case Rheal Cormier suddenly falls back to Earth. That still leaves John Wasdin (don't laugh, look up his stats), Rich Garces (his too), and the aforementioned Shooter, with even Tom Gordon almost ready to join the mix.

Speaking of Garces, did anyone else desperately need a snack when Fox showed him pitching to Orioles' 1B/DH Calvin Pickering? In a perfect world, Pickering would have charged the mound, giving rise to some sort of Fox prime time special. At the very least, Garces would have gotten valuable practice for the volatile Cleveland Indians. Anyone who can take Pickering should have no trouble against Jaret Wright.

Mind you, the Indians, who will likely face the Red Sox in the Division Series, have had a terrible bullpen lately. More accurately, their bullpen resembles the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' lineup: Old guys whom casual fans recognize but who need to move on. Doc Gooden at his peak may have blown Derek Lowe out of the water, but that peak was over a decade ago. Same problem for Mark Langston. Paul Assenmacher has been around so long that a whole generation of Superstation kids fail to remember him as a Cub or Brave. At least Steve Karsay can join Wasdin in the fraternity of former prospects who were traded for big bad Athletics (Jose Canseco and Rickey Henderson).

In any event, a hot pitching staff can carry a ballclub surprisingly far -- just ask the 1998 Padres -- as long as you don't expect the magic to repeat itself. (Remember when Dan Miceli was a ten-game-winner?) As streaky performance goes, suddenly keeping the other team from scoring seems a lot easier than suddenly outscoring them. Hockey fans are well aware of this, having seen more than a few hot backup goalies win playoff series. The same thing happens in baseball, although it requires a slightly greater ensemble. That's just more aliens to appease, I suppose. So, is there any chance Johnny Oates will replace David Duchovny on the X-Files?

about the author

Matt Bruce isn't one to brag, but he was the construction worker in the Village People. Blame him for the stupid "YMCA" dance at mb@strikethree.com.