Mailbag Musings

Dave Paisley

Time to open up the mailbag once more, this time with a thoughtful piece from Barry. Barry writes:

Hi Dave, Nice articles on your ratings of Cy Young and MVP candidates, but I must question your formula for determining the respective MVPs (although I acknowledge your statement that you were attempting to anticipate the reactions of the baseball writers, an exercise at least as confounding as trying to understand why my wife cries at movies but never when a no-hitter is broken up in the ninth). While I have no serious qualms with your top choices in either league, I believe any system that completely omits Roberto Alomar from the list of AL contenders needs to be reconsidered. Moreover, given the behavior of the umpires this year, Robby might even get a few bonus votes for his past expectoration problem.

I didn't mention him in the article primarily because he suffers from the problem of having one of the two front-runners on his own team. Good point, though.

If Robby's omission requires reconsideration of your methods, however, ranking Dante Bichette ahead of Chipper Jones requires a complete overhaul of the system (actually, any system that ranks Dante ahead of the Cincinnati Reds' ballboy needs overhauling, but I digress). I would argue that even the BBWAA members, in their admitted fascination with triple crown numbers, at some point allow the word "valuable" from MVP to enter their thinking, a concept that immediately eliminates Dante (actually, the word "player" from MVP should eliminate him as well, but again I digress). In reaching this conclusion, I don't consider the fact that Dante was once quoted (admittedly by a member of the BBWAA, which might cause one to question the accuracy of the quote) saying that only he and Vinnie Castilla show up to play hard every day, apparently ignoring that lazy, incompetent slacker Larry Walker, who merely carries Dante on a regular basis. No, I only consider the fact that Dante hasn't had a big hit since approximately the last time Debbie Boone had one.

It is unfair, however, to criticize one's statistical methodology without proposing an alternative, and I must admit I've had a difficult time coming up with a different method that eliminates Dante while leaving the other deserving candidates on your list. I finally decided the simplest method is best . . . just adjust your formula to include a 374 point deduction for being named "Dante Bichette." I enjoy your work, thanks for the entertainment.

As statistical methodologies go, it lacks elegance, but makes up for it in simplicity. I'd also add "Brian Hunter" to the automatic deduction category, but there's really no need. He deducts the 374 points automatically. Take away any more and he'd be negative.

And thank you for the entertainment. It's the occasional gem like this that piques my interest when it's time to open up the mailbox.

ps - Given that I state my preferences so strongly, in the interest of full disclosure I suppose it's only fair that I reveal that I also prefer Smokey and the Bandit to Citizen Kane

But how do you feel about Police Academy against Dr. Zhivago?

And finally, here's something I found in my mailbox that I might just send along to good ol' Dante.

Spamlord writes:

*****AMAZING MELT AWAY FAT ABSORBER CAPSULES*****

*****WE GLADLY SHIP TO ALL FOREIGN COUNTRIES*****

LOSE 30 POUNDS IN 30 DAYS... GUARANTEED!!!

All Natural Weight-Loss Program, Speeds Up The Metabolism Safely Rated #1 In Both Categories of SAFETY & EFFECTIVENESS In (THE USA TODAY)

WE'LL HELP YOU GET THINNER IN WINTER!!! WE'RE GOING TO HELP YOU LOOK GOOD, FEEL GOOD AND TAKE CONTROL IN 2000

Lose weight, gain control -- what's not to like here for an aging, overweight, free-swinging slugger? And if Barry should somehow manage to get Dante on a plane to Ecuador (perhaps in a gunnysack?), Dante can still get his pills. It's a win-win proposition all around.

about the author

Dave Paisley has been working on his own weight-loss program, but it's more along the lines of running a series of wind sprints to and from the concession stand. Offer up those nifty parachute training devices to drdjp@strikethree.com.

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