Wildly Chasing the Card: AL

Jason Michael Barker

With less than a month left in the season, it's time to get serious about this American League Wild Card race. It really is the only race left in the AL, and is all the more exciting because it features three teams -- Boston, Oakland and Toronto -- fighting for that last post-season berth.

Heading into play Tuesday, a mere four and a half games were all that separated the three clubs. Here's a quick look at the standings, current through Monday's games:

Team     Won    Loss    GB    Games Left
Boston    78     60      -        24
Oakland   75     63     3.0       24
Toronto   74     65     4.5       23

As you can see, it's pretty darn close. All things being equal, Boston has the advantage since they currently occupy the top spot, but of course all things are not equal. In looking at what might happen the rest of the way, perhaps the most important factor is the schedule each team will face.

Of the three teams, Oakland will by far face the easiest schedule. Eleven of their 24 remaining games are at home, including a two-game series with Boston beginning today, and the A's face only two winning teams (Boston and Texas) the rest of the way. Following the brief Boston series, the A's will face Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Kansas City, Minnesota, Texas, Anaheim, and Seattle. Throw out Boston and Texas for a minute, and you're talking about 19 games against teams with a combined .431 winning percentage.

The one downside of this schedule is that other than the two games with Boston, the A's won't be able to make up any direct ground on the two teams they're competing with in terms of head-to-head matchups. Still, they face the most favorable remaining schedule of the three teams, and those two games might be enough if Oakland can win both of them.

Up next in the schedule department is Boston, with 24 (10 home, 14 road) games remaining. After two with the A's, the Red Sox face perhaps their most difficult (and most important) six-game stretch of the season -- three games at Yankee Stadium, followed by three games in Cleveland. If they can manage to hang on to their Wild Card lead that long they should be in pretty good shape, as their remaining series are against Detroit, Toronto, Baltimore, Chicago, and Baltimore again, and ten of those are at home.

The Red Sox have a chance to put some distance between themselves and the A's in the two-game series which starts today, and later should be in a position to finish of Toronto for good when the teams face off for three games two weeks from now.

Things don't look very good for Toronto. Not only are they trailing both Boston and Oakland, but they have a very rough schedule the rest of the way. Only nine of their remaining 23 games are at home, and six of those are with the Yankees and Indians. But wait, it gets worse -- the Blue Jays close out the season with four games in, you guessed it, Cleveland. Ouch. It's possible the Tribe could be resting their starters by then, but I don't see them rolling over for Toronto if there's a playoff spot on the line.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays have a faint ray of hope in the form of that three-game series in Boston. Even if they fall five or six games out, a three-game sweep of the Red Sox could pull them right back into contention. Of course, they'd better hope they're pretty close at the end, since seven of their last nine games are with the aforementioned Indians.

Confused? Don't be. Here's a quick look at what each team has left:

Team     Home/Away   Remaining Series

Boston     11/14     @Oak, @NY, @Cle, Det, Tor, Bal, @Chi, @Bal

Oakland    11/13     Bos, @TB, @Bal, KC, Min, @Tex, @Ana, Sea

Toronto     9/14     @Sea, @Det, NY, Chi, @Bos, Cle, @TB, @Cle

Now that we've broken down each club's remaining schedule, you're probably wondering just what it will take for each team to win the Wild Card. If you're not wondering, we'll wait a minute while you catch up with the rest of the class.

Boston
Strengths: The Red Sox shouldn't ever endure a long losing streak as long as Pedro Martinez is pitching every five days, and their staff as a whole has the second-best ERA (4.21) in the league. Derek Lowe has pitched quite well since taking over the closer role. The offense is solid with a group of good non-superstars surrounding Nomar Garciaparra: Brian Daubach, Butch Huskey, Jason Varitek, Mike Stanley, Jose Offerman, and Troy O'Leary.

Weaknesses: Other than Pedro Martinez, the starting rotation has been fairly weak -- Bret Saberhagen is still injured, Ramon Martinez remains a question mark, Brian Rose was sent to AAA, and Tim Wakefield is very inconsistent. On offense, it's a similar story. If Nomar struggles, there doesn't appear to be any one player who can carry the team.

Keys: If the Sox can survive their current roadtrip through Oakland, New York and Cleveland, they should be able to hold on to the Wild Card given their weak schedule over the last two weeks. A split or sweep in Oakland would be a great start, and it would certainly help if Ramon Martinez can step up and pitch like he did for the Dodgers what seems like years ago.

Oakland
Strengths: Their weak remaining schedule is a big plus, both due to the teams they're playing and the number of home games they have left. Their line-up is solid from top to bottom, and the A's have scored more runs this season than all but two teams in the league (Cleveland and New York) thanks to leading the circuit in walks and being second in home runs. Starters Tim Hudson and Omar Olivares have been pleasant surprises.

Weaknesses: Kevin Appier, acquired at the trading deadline, has yet to live up to expectations or fill the void left by Kenny Rogers. His ERA is over six since joining the A's. The bullpen was weakened by the trade of Billy Taylor, and the closer role has been something of a mystery since he left, although it appears Jason Isringhausen is the man for now. As a team, the A's are an inexperienced bunch, unfamiliar with the pressures of a pennant race.

Keys: It all begins with the two-game series with the Red Sox. If Oakland can take both games, they'll be able to cruise through the rest of the schedule. Other than that, a Kevin Appier return to form would be a big boost, as would some consistency in the bullpen.

Toronto
Strengths: Offensively, the Jays have scored the fourth-most runs in the American League, and have two superstars in Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green. Shannon Stewart has emerged as one of the top lead-off men in the game. Rookie closer Billy Koch has dominated in saving 27 of 30 games, and the rest of the Toronto bullpen is very solid.

Weaknesses: With their position in the standings and extremely tough schedule the rest of the way, the Jays are at an obvious disadvantage. Starting pitching has been lacking at times this season, and the trio of David Wells, Pat Hentgen and Kelvim Escobar has been inconsistent. Rookie CF Vernon Wells, who has been great in the field and not-so-great at the plate, is an unknown commodity.

Keys: Toronto simply must win a good percentage of their games, and with their remaining schedule that might be a problem. If they're going to have any shot at this, veterans David Wells and Pat Hentgen must step it up the rest of the way.

Final thoughts
I still think Oakland is going to wind up the season on top. While I certainly wouldn't count the Red Sox out of it, it appears Toronto might need a miracle of sorts. We should have a much better idea about how things will finish up after the two-game Oakland-Boston series this week, but of course they might split the two games and leave the standings unchanged.

You've got to love a good pennant race.

Jason Michael Barker really does love a good pennant race, he just wishes his Seattle Mariners were in one. Assure him that the evil Piniella will be fired and everything will be all right when you write him at jmb@strikethree.com.

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