And the Other Envelope, Please...

Dave Paisley

Having covered the relatively pedestrian Cy Young races, it's time to take a look at the way the MVP race is shaping up. Once again, let me remind you that the baseball writers (members of the BBWAA) aren't really that interested in spending a lot of time with in-depth analysis. They like to check out who's leading in RBI, home runs and batting average, generally in that order. There are glimmers that runs scored are beginning to count, but not a whole lot.

As I did with the Cy Young candidates, I'll lay out the main contenders here, based on the above Triple Crown stats. I want to make it clear that there isn't anything wrong with the Triple Crown stats per se, merely the over-reliance on them to the exclusion of other, better evaluation methods. But, hey, we don't vote, so we might as well try to figure out how the guys with the ballots will do.

It's also generally true that the Triple Crown stats aren't equally weighted. In an attempt to emulate the thought processes of the average BBWAA voter, I've allocated a maximum of 200 points for RBI, 200 for home runs and 100 for batting average. All scores are rated based on the leader in the category in that league. For example, as Sammy Sosa is leading in home runs, he automatically gets 200 points. Everyone else gets a fraction of that based on how many home runs they've hit relative to his leading number.

I should also mention that these numbers are a couple of days old, but nothing much seems to have changed relativity-wise.

In the American League, it's pretty evident that it's a two-horse race between Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez.

American League
Name	Team	AVG	R	HR	RBI	AVG pts (100)	HR pts (200)	RBI pts (200)	Total
Rafael Palmeiro	Tex	.337	81	40	127	96	195	191	482
Manny Ramirez	Cle	.329	105	36	133	94	176	200	470
Ken Griffey Jr.	Sea	.303	106	41	113	87	200	170	456
Carlos Delgado	Tor	.269	98	38	121	77	185	182	444
Shawn Green	Tor	.311	104	34	105	89	166	158	413
Juan Gonzalez	Tex	.309	91	29	106	88	141	159	389
Alex Rodriguez	Sea	.311	94	33	92	89	161	138	388
Magglio Ordonez	Cha	.298	81	27	104	85	132	156	373
John Jaha	Oak	.283	82	31	91	81	151	137	369
Ivan Rodriguez	Tex	.327	95	29	89	93	141	134	369
Fred McGriff	Tam	.318	66	29	88	91	141	132	365
Jason Giambi	Oak	.316	94	25	99	90	122	149	361
Bj Surhoff	Bal	.319	85	25	94	91	122	141	354
Bernie Williams	NY	.349	98	22	97	100	107	146	353
Jose Canseco	TB	.281	67	31	76	80	151	114	346

While Ken Griffey Jr. is still in the picture, the dreaded "won't make the playoffs" factor comes into play. For some reason this isn't a big deal in the Cy Young voting, but almost always is a factor in the MVP. Overall, I'd say Palmeiro is the more deserving candidate by a nose, but I could buy either of them as the winner. Looking down the list, we can see the two Toronto lads, Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green making solid bids, while Juan "Crybaby" Gonzalez is hanging in. Despite having stolen a couple of MVP awards already, it's pretty tough to steal one from under the nose of a teammate, so I'm presuming Juan is out of the running this year.

Right after that is one of his theft victims, Alex Rodriguez, who would be making a solid bid for the award himself if he hadn't missed five weeks with a knee injury. He may already be better than Griffey, and looks to be improving significantly every year he plays. Now if only he'd learn to walk...

Then we have solid numbers being turned in by Magglio Ordonez, toiling in obscurity in Chicago, and John Jaha, rebounding from injury and helping Oakland make a run at the wild card.

After that, other notables include Fred McGriff, having a nice little revival down in Tampa, and Bernie Williams, the only Yankee to make the list. Then there's Jose Canseco, out for several weeks after taking a substantial lead in the home run race. Without that little problem, he'd be a possible contender for the award. If it wasn't for the "making the playoffs" problem at least.

Not listed are potential candidates Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter, who just don't have the RBI and home run numbers to make this list. Does that mean they'll be overlooked? I don't believe they can win, although the amount of media hype they get will mean they'll likely get some serious votes and potentially finish in the top five.

So let's say we're in the final stretch and the award will probably go to whichever of Palmeiro and Ramirez finishes stronger.

Over in the National league, the "not making the playoffs" factor shows up in spades.

National League
Name	Team	AVG	R	HR	RBI	AVG pts (100)	HR pts (200)	RBI pts (200)	Total
Sammy Sosa	Chi	.302	99	54	119	83	200	198	481
Mark McGwire	StL	.284	94	51	119	78	189	198	465
Jeff Bagwell	Hou	.309	116	38	108	85	141	180	405
Matt Williams	Ari	.308	85	31	120	84	115	200	399
Larry Walker	Col	.365	96	33	101	100	122	168	391
Mike Piazza	NY	.320	80	32	101	88	119	168	375
Dante Bichette	Col	.299	86	28	113	82	104	188	374
Vladimir Guerrero	Mon	.303	82	33	101	83	122	168	374
Brian Giles	Pit	.306	90	33	99	84	122	165	371
Robin Ventura	NY	.306	70	28	104	84	104	173	361
Chipper Jones	Atl	.320	97	34	84	88	126	140	354
Luis Gonzalez	Ari	.344	95	23	93	94	85	155	334
Brian Jordan	Atl	.299	88	22	100	82	81	167	330

Leading the table we have last year's favorite two sluggers. Last year, though, the Cubs made the playoffs (barely) while the Cardinals went down like the Hindenberg. This year, we have two Zeppelin disasters in the NL Central, meaning both Sammy and Mark have been toiling in futility most of the season. Does this disqualify them? In the eyes of the BBWAA, probably. Why, I have no idea, as it isn't Mark or Sammy's fault that their teams have no pitching.

However, that leaves us the next couple of guys to conjure with. Jeff Bagwell and Matt Williams are both in all likelihood going to the playoffs. No guarantees, but probably. Forget Larry Walker for two reasons: "Coors effect" and no playoffs. Same for Dante Bichette. Notice that nice little season Vladimir Guerrero is having. Shame about the team, though. Scanning down the list for playoff-bound players, we find Mike Piazza, Robin Ventura, Chipper Jones, Luis Gonzalez and Brian Jordan.

Of those, forget Gonzalez and Jordan because there's a better player from their own team on the list already. The Ventura/Piazza situation is different, though, as Ventura seems to be viewed as friendlier than the best catcher in the game.

So, of Bagwell, Williams, Piazza, Ventura and Jones, what's the score? All have name recognition, always a good thing, and all except Ventura have either won the award or been serious contenders. I like Bagwell's chances, with Williams a likely runner-up.

But will the BBWAA really pass over Sammy and Mac? If Sammy hits 70, can they deny him a repeat?

Well, that's why we'll keep watching.

about the author

Dave Paisley once watched an entire Brewers-Marlins game on a dare. Tell him how to make the nightmares go away at drdjp@strikethree.com.