Bambi, The Envelope, Please...

Dave Paisley

Well, we've finally hit September and so it's time to start wondering what kind of mayhem the old fogeys over at the BBWAA (that's the Baseball Writers Association of America) will be getting up to when this season's award ballots hit their mailboxes in a couple of weeks. The two prime awards are, of course, the Cy Young and the MVP, and I'll be taking them in turn this week.

First, the Cy Young Award. We all know that the boys at the BBWWA love those Triple Crown stats, so I've prepared a couple of tables to help figure out what's likely to happen. It isn't always what we'd like to see happen, but there you go. Until we get to vote, nothing much will change.

For pitchers, the Triple Crown stats are, of course, Wins (W), Earned Run Average (ERA) and Strikeouts (SO). There is another consideration, and that's whether a player's team makes the post-season, but we'll hold that consideration back for a while. What I've done here is to take the leading candidates and score them in each category relative to the current leader.

There isn't an equal weighting given to each category either, so I've tweaked the scoring a little to reflect that. Initially I allocated 200 points to Wins, 200 to ERA and 100 to Strikeouts, but I realized there is another subtle influence, and that's winning percentage. All other things being equal, the BBWWA is much more impressed with a 19-4 record than a 19-8 record. I'm impressed, too, actually, so I took 50 of the Win points and allocated them to Win Percentage (W%). So, given all that preamble, here we go.

National League
Player	Team	W	L	W%	ERA	IP	BB	SO	W pts (150)	W% pts (50)	ERA pts (200)	SO pts (100)	Total (500)
Randy Johnson	Ari	14	8	.636	2.51	225.2	61	301	124	37	200	100	461
Mike Hampton	Hou	17	3	.850	2.97	193.2	78	138	150	50	169	46	415
Kevin Brown	LA	15	6	.714	3.24	205.2	53	176	132	42	155	58	388
Kevin Millwood	Atl	14	7	.667	2.98	184.0	53	159	124	39	168	53	384
Jose Lima	Hou	17	7	.708	3.48	201.2	35	145	150	42	144	48	384
Curt Schilling	Phi	14	5	.737	3.49	170.0	41	147	124	43	144	49	360
Greg Maddux	Atl	16	6	.727	3.61	179.1	30	109	141	86	70	36	355
Kent Bottenfield	StL	16	7	.696	3.98	174.0	78	117	141	41	126	39	348
Shane Reynolds	Hou	14	11	.560	3.80	196.1	25	179	132	33	132	59	348
Russ Ortiz	SF	15	8	.652	3.89	166.2	98	135	132	38	129	45	345
Omar Daal	Ari	13	7	.650	3.53	181.0	69	129	115	38	142	43	338

I'm surprised, in a way, that even with the bias towards wins and away from strikeouts, Randy Johnson is a clear favorite here. I suspected that one of the two Houston lads would be leading this, but there's the evidence right there. Having roughly twice as many strikeouts as anyone else and the best ERA in the league is enough to make Johnson a runaway winner. However, even with this evidence, I'm not sure that the BBWWA will actually do that. The primary reason is the Unit's low winning percentage. Johnson has built up a reputation as a guy who can't win the big game. It's undeserved, as his playoff losses have generally come about because of a total lack of run support, but rational reasoning doesn't usually sway the writers.

There are, however, no alternative candidates without weaknesses. Mike Hampton sits second, and is definitely known as a quality pitcher but just doesn't have the charisma that screams, "Pick me!"

Jose Lima has charisma in spades, but it comes with a flamboyance that doesn't play well in Peoria and that may be his downfall. (And yes, Lima has won another game since I compiled the table.)

The numbers do show what a great year Kevin Brown has had, even in the brutal situation in L.A. He isn't going to like six more years of this. Then there's Kevin Millwood, the stealth candidate. He suffers from the notion that he's only the fourth-best pitcher on the team, given the wealth of awards Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine have won in the last decade. Speaking of Greg, there he is at seventh on the list, despite an "off" year for him.

Sandwiched in between the two Braves pitchers is Curt Schilling, now missing in action. Another excellent year, but you tend not to win anything when you're out for a couple of months to end the year.

Rounding out the list we have a few candidates beginning to make a name for themselves. Shane Reynolds is the best-known, but it doesn't pay to be the third-best pitcher on the team. Kent Bottenfield has managed, by hook or by crook, to wring a good season from a mediocre team (can you say run support, boys and girls?) and Russ Ortiz and Omar Daal will certainly be worth watching in future. Oh, but we said that before about Shawn Estes. Never mind.

So overall, I expect Johnson will win, but it could be a close run thing with Hampton and Lima in the running.

Here are the AL numbers -- I think they speak for themselves:
 

American League
Player	Team	W	L	W%	ERA	IP	BB	SO	W pts (150)	W% pts (50)	ERA pts (200)	SO pts (100)	Total (500)
Pedro Martinez	Bos	19	4	.826	2.36	171.1	31	242	150	46	200	100	496
Mike Mussina	Bal	15	7	.682	3.60	180.0	48	144	118	38	131	60	347
Bartolo Colon	Cle	15	4	.789	4.14	171.2	65	137	118	44	114	57	333
David Cone	NY	11	7	.611	3.04	159.2	67	135	87	34	155	56	332
Freddy Garcia	Sea	14	7	.667	4.21	162.1	70	135	111	38	112	56	316
Aaron Sele	Tex	15	7	.682	4.95	165.1	61	152	118	38	95	63	315
Orlando Hernandez	NY	14	7	.667	4.11	170.2	66	125	111	38	115	52	315
Tim Hudson	Oak	8	1	.889	3.46	104.0	48	100	63	50	136	41	291
Roger Clemens	NY	12	6	.667	4.45	149.2	66	123	95	38	106	51	289
Jamie Moyer	Sea	12	6	.667	4.26	188.0	42	111	95	38	111	46	289
Charles Nagy	Cle	14	9	.609	4.73	163.2	50	99	111	34	100	41	285
Dave Burba	Cle	11	7	.611	4.44	174.1	76	133	87	34	106	55	282

If it wasn't for Oakland rookie Tim Hudson skewing the winning percentage, Pedro Martinez would have a clean sweep. In fact, one more loss for Hudson and he drops behind Pedro anyway, so in all likelihood, Pedro wins in a canter. There just isn't any conceivable way Pedro Martinez can lose this award. It's practically guaranteed he wins 20 games and his team makes the playoffs. There's just no excuse.

So the fun to be had in the AL is in checking out the supporting cast. There's Mike Mussina, pitching very well again for an awful team, and yet he wants more of the same. He's seen some success with Baltimore and perhaps he can again if Angelos would just hire a real GM. Then there's young Bartolo Colon. Crappy ERA for someone on this list, but lots of wins and only four losses. There's that run support factor again. Note also that even Charles Nagy and Dave Burba creep onto the bottom of this list despite ERAs right around league average.

Then there's David Cone, whose season has been disrupted somewhat by injury. Factor in the perfect game and the low ERA, he might have had a chance if Pedro wasn't out there kicking ass.

Next up is Mariner rookie Freddie Garcia. I was shocked to see him so high, but he was lucky early in the season with run support and that's kept him rolling along. He's definitely a prime candidate for Rookie of the Year, with the biggest challenge possibly coming from the aforementioned Tim Hudson, who also makes the list. The choice here is between a guy who has pitched all season long very effectively, versus a guy who has done better, but who didn't play in the majors the first two months. Interesting choice. If I had to guess, I'd go with Garcia, simply because of the stamina he's shown (that's code for "abuse he's endured," by the way.)

After that, there's Aaron Sele, making the list once again despite a really poor ERA. Once again, run support to the rescue. Two more Yankees (Hernandez and Clemens) make the list without exciting much, with Jamie Moyer scooting in ahead of Burba and Nagy. Since arriving in Seattle, Moyer has sported one of the best winning percentages of the last four years (57-23) and endured a 1-4 start this season with a 7.00+ ERA before settling down.

So there's the Cy picture. Johnson and Martinez just about have their names engraved on the trophies already. From here on, they can only beat themselves. Or maybe I can phrase that a little better. They have nothing to fear but fear itse... Oh, never mind.

Next up: The MVP.

about the author

Dave Paisley just loves to hear all the different ways people pronounce the acronym BBWAA. His favorite is Buh-buh-waaaaaaaaa. Be sure to send him your favorite at drdjp@strikethree.com.