August AL Rookie Roundup, Part Two

Jason Michael Barker

Today we turn our attention to the American League's top rookie hurlers, paying particular attention to four new additions to the list: Tim Hudson, Billy Koch, Joe Mays and Ryan Rupe. The first two are playing key roles as their teams make a playoff push, while the latter two are with teams trying to build something for the future. Read on.

Freddy Garcia, RHP, Mariners
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBA	WHIP	ERA
22	24	24	142.1	143	77	73	14	65	115	11	7	0	.344	1.46	4.62

Garcia was coming off of two fabulous outings before running into trouble last Friday night in Boston, where Fenway Park has spoiled the performances of many a young pitcher. In his previous start, "The Chief," as he's come to be known around Seattle, was a tough luck 1-0 loser to Andy Pettitte and the Yankees. Garcia pitched a complete game three-hitter, allowing just three walks (two were intentional) and striking out ten. In his start prior to that he allowed no runs, six hits and just one walk in seven-plus innings against the Devil Rays, again striking out ten.

I was able to watch each of those two starts, and Garcia had by far the best "stuff" he's had all season. He got ahead of hitters, threw his fastball by them when necessary, and fooled them all night with a wonderful changeup and curveball. Unfortunately, he also was over the 120-pitch mark in each of those starts, and as has been his pattern all season, faltered in his next outing.

Nevertheless, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been improving over his last six starts or so, which is always a good sign, and he's been helped by the M's move to pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Assuming Lou Piniella doesn't overwork him (and Garcia's pattern of having one bad start out of every three or four has kept his workload down), he should be even better next season.

Tim Hudson, RHP, Athletics
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBA	WHIP	ERA
23	13	13	84.2	80	28	27	3	37	80	7	1	0	.334	1.38	2.87

Heading into this season, most people thought Mark Mulder was going to be the first A's pitching prospect to make a difference at the big league level. Instead, Tim Hudson has burst onto the scene and has been pitching very well since being called up in early June. He's 7-1 in 13 starts, and is a big reason the Athletics are in the thick of the wild card race.

Most impressive about Hudson's numbers (other than his ERA, microscopic in relation to the rest of the league) is that he's allowing less than a hit an inning, in addition to striking out nearly a batter per frame. He's also shown great control, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (better than 2:1) is outstanding for a young pitcher. As a pitcher drafted out of college (Auburn '97) he hasn't suffered a heavy workload coming up through the minors. He's got a very bright future.

Billy Koch, RHP, Blue Jays
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBA	WHIP	ERA
24	38	0	46.0	40	13	12	2	18	40	0	1	24	.311	1.26	2.35

Billy Koch is new to relief pitching, but you certainly wouldn't know it from his numbers. He supposedly could hit 100 MPH on the radar gun before shoulder surgery in 1997, but even now he still throws in the mid-90s, with movement to boot. His success is all the more amazing given how little experience he has in the minors -- he had made a total of 30 appearances, all starts, before this season, and all but two of those were at A-ball.

The Jays have been down this road before, namely in 1997, when a young former starter named Kelvim Escobar save 14 games down the stretch. Even so, they brought in Randy Myers to close games the next season. Escobar has been jerked in and out of the rotation ever since, and he's never been the same pitcher (as evidenced by his 6+ ERA this season). Hopefully they've learned their lesson, and will simply let Koch close games for the next five or ten years.

Joe Mays, RHP, Twins
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBA	WHIP	ERA
23	39	11	117.1	121	54	48	15	47	80	5	4	0	.333	1.43	3.68
	11	11	67.0	55	18	16	3	24	50	5	2	0	n/a	1.18	2.15

You probably haven't heard of Joe Mays since he's been in the bullpen much of the season and is toiling in the anonymity of the Metrodome. The top line stats are his overall season numbers -- good, but not outstanding. The second line features his numbers since moving into the starting rotation, which certainly are outstanding. Of his two losses, one was a complete game in which he allowed just two earned runs.

Mays was considered a decent prospect heading into the season, but it's a wonder he was put in the rotation at all, since he had a 5.72 ERA in 28 appearances at the time. Give Tom Kelly some credit, either for seeing something nobody else did or for being so desperate that he stuck young Joe Mays in the rotation. He had a successful minor league career (originally out of the Mariners organization, go figure) and is one to keep your eye on for the future.

Ryan Rupe, RHP, Devil Rays
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBA	WHIP	ERA
24	18	18	106.1	106	65	56	16	43	70	7	6	0	.344	1.40	4.74

Rupe and Wilson Alvarez have been Tampa Bay's most effective starters this season, although combined they only have a 13-12 won-loss record to show for their efforts. Rupe started the season in the minors before being called up in early May, winning his first game against the Rangers in his third major league start. He's a big (6'5"), hard-thrower who struck out better than a batter an inning in the minors.

Surprisingly, Rupe hasn't pitched all that much in his career, which coupled with his size makes him a good bet to stay healthy. He missed his junior year in college with an elbow injury and his senior year with a blood clot before being granted an extra year of eligibility by the NCAA, which he used last spring. Upon being taken by the Rays in the 1998 draft, he pitched well in 13 starts split between low and high A-ball.

Rupe needs to cut his walk rate down, particularly against left-handed batters, who are hitting .387/.520 against him this season with nearly a 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, as compared to .308/.402 against righties. A large platoon split is something that plagues many young pitchers, and getting rid of it is the difference between passable performance and success.

Jeff Weaver, RHP, Tigers
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBA	WHIP	ERA
22	21	21	119.2	121	71	68	19	37	81	6	8	0	.335	1.32	5.11

Like Rupe, Weaver suffers from a very large platoon split between right- and left-handed bats. He's holding righties to a paltry .297/.344, but lefties are teeing off to the tune of .361/.533 with 33 extra-base hits in 240 at-bats. Further, his ERA has risen each month after he posted a 2.45 mark in April. His ERA by month, beginning with April: 2.45, 3.19, 4.41, 8.79, 16.20. Either the league is beginning to figure him out, or he's simply beginning to run out of gas. He was drafted out of college last season, and probably isn't used to throwing so many innings (and major league innings are more taxing on the arm than college innings).

The good news is his strikeout-to-walk ratio (better than 2:1), and just 37 walks in nearly 120 innings. He's also shown he can dominate right-handers, and he hasn't been overworked, averaging just 93 pitches per start. It will be interesting to see how Detroit's new stadium affects him next season, as Tiger Stadium is fairly neutral.

Jeff Zimmerman, RHP, Texas
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBA	WHIP	ERA
26	49	0	69.1	30	10	10	4	18	56	9	2	3	.193	.692	1.30

What gives? After dominating opposing hitters for four months, Zimmerman has allowed as many runs this month (five) as he did those first four months combined. He's also surrendered three home runs after having not allowed one since April, lost two games, and blown a save. His ERA has risen from 0.75 to 1.30 so far in August.

Simply put, he couldn't keep it up forever. He's still the best thing the Rangers have going in their bullpen, and he should continue to be effective for the rest of the season. If he ever gets a chance at the glamorous closer's role he's going to make a ton of money, á la Mike Jackson, who was a setup man for years before Mike Hargrove realized Jackson was better than Jose Mesa.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker has realized that because he's neither under 12 years old nor elderly, his only hope for getting on Fox' "Fan Cam" is to gain fifty pounds and paint Chief Wahoo on his chest. He's also willing to accept monetary offers not to at jmb@strikethree.com.