Deep in the Heart of Texas

Dave Paisley

Despite the fact that they inhabit my "home" division, the Texas Rangers have received very little attention from your crew here at Strikethree.com. Maybe it's because we hate them, maybe it's because we just don't believe their pitching can take them very far, but whatever the reason, we've ignored them. Until now.

You might have thought that I'd have been all over this one, given my uncanny ability to profile a team just before it hits the skids. It's too late now to have a realistic chance of bursting the Rangers' bubble, but it's worth a long shot.

Another reason to profile the Rangers is that an all-Lone Star State World Series isn't really any less likely than a Subway Series, yet the latter gets a lot more press. In years past, the Rangers have pretty much been 0-3 and out in the playoffs when they've made it, but this year could be different. None of the AL teams are invulnerable. The Yankees aren't leading that totally charmed life of last year, the Indians will be no better off with their pitching than past years, and the likely wild card teams all have their Achilles heels. So, if I were a Texas fan, I'd be pretty psyched about my team's chances for once.

So let's take a deeper look at what makes this team tick.

First, the Rangers have scored 660 runs and given up only 615. That would result in a record of about 62-54 over the 116 games they've played so far. They are, however, much better than that, at 68-48. We'll check into that discrepancy later.

Hitting
Offensively, the Rangers are a top tier team, in a pack of several good offensive teams (Mariners and Yankees) and only a smidge behind the Indians.

If anything, the one change that seems to have sparked this team is the return of Rafael Palmeiro. Not only has returning to Texas rejuvenated him, it seems to have boosted the team. Now that the "team leader" is no longer the selfish Juan Gonzalez, the offense seems to have settled down. After a sub-standard 1997, Palmeiro bounced back last year, but is now well on his way to the best year of his career at age 34.

Interestingly enough, Mr. "I Don't Want to Go to the All-Star Game if the Fans Don't Vote Me In" Gonzalez is having one of his peculiar odd-year slumps again. Sure, he still sports a .900 OPS, but it's a far cry from his 1.000 MVP years. Also of note is the fact that, in his off years, he doesn't so much lose home run power as he loses doubles. This year he's on a pace to hit almost 40 homers -- pretty routine for recent years -- but only about 25 doubles. Juan could also learn a thing or two from Raffy about how to get on base.

The supporting cast is pretty deep, featuring the likes of All-Star Ivan Rodriguez and the much less-heralded Rusty Greer, Todd Zeile and Lee Stevens. The middle infield drags the offense down with the likes of Royce Clayton and Mark McLemore, but it's not too bad.

Pitching
While the Rangers' pitching isn't terribly good, it does have its bright spots. In fact, the team ERA is right about league average, so allied to that powerhouse offense, it's no shock the team is doing well.

The weakest link in the pitching chain is definitely the starting rotation, where only one starter has an ERA under 5.00. Rick Helling, Aaron Sele and Mike Morgan have been the workhorses of the rotation, compiling 9-7, 12-7 and 12-7 records respectively.

Like many teams, the Rangers attempted to shore up a patchy rotation in the off-season by bringing in a veteran arm, in this case Mark Clark. Well, Clark is on the DL after being just awful, so that move didn't work. On the other hand, after an awful start to the season and a stint on the DL, Esteban Loaiza has looked promising of late.

The big pitching story for the Rangers, though, has been the bullpen. Jeff Zimmerman, Mike Venafro and Tim Crabtree have been superb, turning in a combined 170 innings of pitching with a combined ERA around 2.00. Much of that is due to Zimmerman, who has poached nine wins in relief against only one loss. He has given up an unbelievable less than four hits per nine innings, and barely walks two per nine. And let's not forget Mike Munoz, Danny Patterson and closer John Wetteland. With an ERA of about 4.50, Wetteland is hardly a classic closer any more, but he proves that almost any kind of decent pitching can get the closer's job done.

The bullpen, then, is the key to the Rangers' success. A recent article by Rany Jayzerli on ESPN touted a possible link between good bullpens and better-than-expected records. I'd like to note here that I first noticed the link last year in a comparison of Boston and Seattle, when Seattle was 4-20 in one-run games by August, and Boston was almost the opposite. In the Rangers' case, it's not much of a stretch to imagine that Zimmerman's performance alone has turned a net six close games around to their advantage, accounting for all the discrepancy in expected wins.

Summary
So, the Rangers are a little stronger this year than in the past. Their strengths are a rock-solid offense and a bullpen to die for. With three decent starters for the playoffs, it's entirely possible they could go all the way to the Series. After that, who knows. And if that Series were to be against the Astros, wouldn't that be fun, deep in the heart of Texas?

about the author

Dave Paisley has been hired by the Giants to help J.T. Snow become more effective. Let him know that "become a catcher" isn't really an option at drdjp@strikethree.com.