The AL Race to the Wire

OK, so we're finally done with interleague play (is that loud cheering I hear in Seattle?) and the drive for the playoffs begins in earnest. Unless, that is, you're the Florida Marlins, Baltimore Orioles or a host of other no-hopers buried at the bottom of a division. So here we go with a look at the possibles and probables for post-season action, starting with the American League.

AL East

Naturally, we need to check in first on the reigning champs. This year was going to be another romp, right? You take a team that won a boatload of games, add Roger Clemens, and you don't lose any games, right? Wrong, Bronx breath. Sure, medical problems in the dugout aside, the season has been pretty straightforward for the Yankees so far, but it's been far from simple.

Offensively, the Yanks have gotten by with steady performances from most of the crew. Derek Jeter, however, has taken his game to a completely different level so far this year. He's certainly propelled himself to the level of A-Rod and Nomar. In the pitching department, very little has gone according to plan, especially for doghouse dweller Andy Pettitte, but the staff has basically managed to hang in there.

Overall, while this is a good team, it lacks the pixie dust of last year, and the Yanks are eminently catchable this year. Which leaves us asking, "who's going to catch them?"

All I can say is that it won't be the Orioles. Nor the Devil Rays. No, those two bastions of ineptitude are anchored to the bottom of the AL East. Take the Orioles (please!). Even with Mike Mussina cruising along much as usual, and the emergence of Sidney Ponson (despite the gopher ball propensity), the rest of the team is able to drag them down, leaving no trace of a decent team peeking above the waves. They are also defying the laws of winning percentage. They are about even in runs scored and allowed, meaning they should be around .500, when in fact they're 13 under.

Tampa Bay is doing it in a more old-fashioned way, though. The second-worst pitching in the league (exceeded only by Seattle) and a sub-par offense combine to prevent them from being anything but just another bottom-feeder.

So the challenge to the Yanks will be coming from the Red Sox and, after a mid-season revival, the Blue Jays.

The Red Sox surge will be very dependent on the health of Pedro Martinez, as without him, the stingiest pitching in the league creeps a lot closer to average. If Pedro doesn't miss much time, and Nomar Garciaparra stays off the DL, the Sox have a chance to catch the Yanks. Much like last year, it looks like the wild card will be coming from the AL East, so even an unsuccessful chase will probably put the loser in the post-season.

But then there's the Blue Jays. I wrote in glowing terms about them in April, fully expecting them to be a breakout team this year. But then they tanked horribly. By mid-June, a five game losing streak seemed to be the beginning of the end. Winning eight of their next nine, however, put them right back on track, and ever since they've been reeling off four- and five-game winning streaks. Now they're within striking distance of the Yankees, and only a couple of games out of the wild card spot currently occupied by the Red Sox. At the risk of offending my Jays readers I'm going to give them the Dave Paisley seal of approval as a probable playoff contender and a possible division winner. (Sorry, guys.)

AL Central

What is there to say here? Indians romp, Indians romp -- fabulous offense, modest pitching. Good enough to win the AL Central in a cakewalk, but the lack of quality pitching will surely bite them in the playoffs. Again. That is, unless we see some serious trade action in the next week or so. As for the rest, what is there to say? This train wreck was obvious from the start of the season. The White Sox played the pretender for a month or so, but it couldn't last forever, and it didn't.

Meanwhile, there's not much to choose between the awfulness in Detroit and Minnesota, while Kansas City is another Baltimore: about even in runs scored, but way under .500. In Seattle, we call this "crappy bullpen syndrome", a feature I first wrote about last year vis-à-vis Seattle. When the team wins, it tends to romp, and indeed the Orioles and Royals have solid offensive numbers. When the game is tight, though, it only takes a run or two given up by the bullpen to blow the game.

AL West

My pre-season hopes for a Mariner romp of the AL West lie dashed in ruins once again, a victim of the inability of Mariner management to put together anything resembling a quality pitching staff. And it's a real shame, because the Mariners have the second-best offense in the league, and even mediocre pitching wins them the division easily. Not that there aren't bright spots, like the emergence of rookie Freddie Garcia and fellow Randy Johnson tradee John Halama. But for every bright spot, there are two black holes, the biggest being the total collapse of Jeff Fassero as a major-league-quality pitcher.

Lacking any confidence in the ability of Mariner management to rectify the situation, I happily concede the division to the Texas Rangers, unless the A's get them. Forget the hapless Angels. With their entire roster on the DL (or so it seems) any hopes for them are sadly misplaced.

The Rangers have everything they need to be as successful as last year. By that I mean win the division and then make a hasty exit from the playoffs. They're almost the Cleveland Indians Lite. Great offense (but not as good as the Indians) and a Goodwill pitching staff (again, not as good as the Indians.) When the best ERA of any starter is 4.50 (Rick Helling), and none of the rest are under 5.00, you just know the team is hanging by a thread.

If it wasn't for aging rookie middle reliever Jeff Zimmerman holding the line in mid-game (picking up 8 wins along the way) this team would be much more like the Mariners. By the way, Zimmerman has given up a mere 20 hits in 55 innings, and only walked 14. Astonishing.

Rounding out the division, the Oakland A's are a modest surprise this year, with a modest offense and a surprisingly stingy pitching staff: They've got fourth-lowest runs allowed in the AL. Tim Hudson has been a very pleasant surprise in the rotation since joining the team in early June. 5-1 with an ERA just over 2.00 is quite a bit better than any of the other starters. I wouldn't bet the mortgage payment that the A's will keep this up, as an offense anchored by John Jaha (as well as he's playing) is always prone to a quick trip to the DL with a pulled muscle. So, much as I hate to say it, it looks like the Rangers have it. (There -- is that enough to jinx them?)

In conclusion, we have few surprises in the AL, the Jays and the A's being the only upside shockers, and the rest eminently predictable. Tune in next time for another exciting episode featuring the NL, where things aren't going according to plan quite so well...

about the author

Last Sunday, in the first sunny open-roof game at Safeco Field, Dave Paisley got a touch of sunburn. Be sure to write and tell him that illusions of the Rangers winning the AL West are surely just heatstroke-induced hallucinations at drdjp@strikethree.com.