Anatomy of a Streak

Dave Paisley

One of the more unusual events in baseball the last few weeks was the highly unlikely surge by the San Diego Padres. Dead in the water with a punchless offense, the poor Pads seemed destined for a sorry fate in the NL West cellar. That was until I wrote them off in an analysis article. Why my article should have raised the ire of the team is still a mystery, but something sure did, and the Pads went on a veritable rampage, winning 14 straight games.

Being the curious sort, I thought I'd take a look at how they did it, and perhaps peek into the future a little to see if it's at all likely that they can keep it up.

First, a few facts and numbers about the streak. In the 64 games that preceded the streak, the Padres averaged 3.8 runs per game in scoring, and allowed their opponents to score an average of 4.7. Using the Pythagorean theorem for winning percentage (runs scored squared divided by runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared) the Padres should have won 25 games. And that's exactly what they did, for a record of 25-39. During the streak, the offense cranked it up to 7.1 runs per game, while the pitching inched it up a notch to reduce opponents to a mere 2.9 runs per game. As you can imagine, this results in a much better chance of winning ballgames. With those numbers, the Pythagorean theorem would say that the Padres should have won 12 of 14. It's not too hard to see how a little luck going their way allowed them to win all 14.

Other items of note: the starting pitchers won 12 of the 14 games, and Trevor Hoffman saved 8 of the games. Interestingly, their top two starters, Ashby and Williams, won only three games between them (Ashby one and Williams two.) Lesser lights like Sterling Hitchcock, Matt Clement and Brian Boehringer won three games each. The remaining two games were won by the bullpen, with one game against the Dodgers going 12 innings.

Remarkably, during the streak, the Padres led the vast majority of games by the middle of the game. There were a couple of nervous games late as teams came back on them, but all of those leads held up, and it helps to explain how the starters got so many decisions. Speaking of the opposition, the streak started with a three game home sweep of the Pirates, continued with a three game sweep of the Dodgers in LA, followed by a home sweep of the Rockies for another four. LA then arrived in town for another three games, leaving town with nada in the way of wins. That took them to thirteen.

Finally, a return engagement with the Rockies netted the Padres one more win before they finally succumbed in game 2. Woody Williams coughed up 11 runs early, but even so, the Rockies only won the game 12-10 as the Padres came back late. It's perhaps no surprise that the Padres feasted on two teams who are division rivals and who are both in much disarray. The Rockies have been rudderless for a while now, and the Dodgers are in a deep funk and digging deeper as they appear to be becoming the Orioles of the NL.

During the streak, nobody on offense stood out dramatically, but the three steadiest producers were Reggie Sanders, Quilvio Veras and Eric Owens. Right behind them was Damian Jackson, now starting at shortstop since Chris Gomez had knee surgery. After that, Dave Magadan, Ruben Rivera and John Vander Wal contributed while not quite playing full-time. Tony Gwynn was mostly MIA during the streak, appearing in only the first two games. All in all, a remarkable streak for a mostly no-name lineup.

What of the future? Since the last win of the streak, the Pads are 2-4 as I write, with an 11-0 win by Andy Ashby and a 5-2 victory over the Giants by Sterling Hitchcock. The team has kept up the scoring, but the pitching has proved to be much more vulnerable, allowing 36 runs in just six games. The prognosis for the future I feel is pretty much where the team stands now -- right around .500 or a little under.

If that gets them fired up to prove me wrong, so be it.

about the author

It seems that major league teams just love proving Dave Paisley wrong. If you know why that is and what riles them up, please tell him at drdjp@strikethree.com

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