Top o' the Order to Ya

Jason Michael Barker

The Mariners' (or rather, Lou Piniella's) insistence on batting Brian Hunter in the leadoff spot got me thinking about the American League's supposed table-setters this week, so I did some looking and comparing. First things first: Hunter probably isn't quite as bad as you thought, but he isn't all that great, either. There are in fact several teams regularly playing leadoff men with worse on-base percentages than Hunter's, if you can believe it.

The Elite

Team	Player	PA	BA	OBP	BB	SB-CS
Cleveland	K. Lofton	309	.335	.441	49	15
Baltimore	B. Anderson	286	.285	.429	51	4
Toronto	S. Stewart	296	.316	.397	33	19

No question about it, Kenny Lofton has been the top leadoff man in the league so far this season. Lofton has always been a good top-of-the-order hitter, but this season he's taken his game to another level, mostly due to a ton of walks which have him leading the AL in OBP. He's also a tremendous base stealer, which never hurts, and he's a big reason why Cleveland is scoring so many runs this season.

Despite all the trouble they've had this season, the Orioles have to be pleased with the play of Brady Anderson. He's having a great season after being horrible last year, and he leads the AL leadoff men in walks. He's no longer the 50-steal threat that he used to be, but as long as he's getting on base this much, he's helping the team a great deal.

The relatively new kid on the block is Toronto's Shannon Stewart, who's finally getting a chance to play regularly this season. He does the two things you want your leadoff man to do: get on base and steal bases. Just 25 years old, Stewart's best is yet to come.

The Good

Team	Player	PA	BA	OBP	BB	SB-CS
Boston	J. Offerman	306	.306	.384	35	5
Chicago	R. Durham	296	.303	.379	32	0

He's cooled off significantly since his blistering start (the one that served to quiet any complaints about his contract), but Jose Offerman is having a very nice season at the top of the Boston order. Despite his .384 OBP while batting first, he doesn't quite make the top tier because he isn't a great base thief.

Ray Durham is another guy who doesn't get much press, but he simply gets the job done, drawing walks and getting on base. He also has good pop for a little guy, and helps set the table for Frank Thomas in Chicago (or elsewhere, if they're playing on the road).

The So-So

Team	Player	PA	BA	OBP	BB	SB-CS
Oakland	T. Phillips	302	.247	.362	43	5
New York	C. Knoblauch	258	.248	.357	28	6

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Chuck Knoblauch used to be one of the premier leadoff men in baseball, but he's really struggled since being traded to New York. The walks are still there, but Knoblauch simply hasn't been hitting as much as he used to, and he's no longer a dangerous base stealer.

One of the best free agent signings this off-season (and a bargain to boot), Tony Phillips has always been good at getting on base, but this season he's added another dimension to his game -- power. Phillips has only hit more than 20 home runs in a season once (27, in 1995), but he's already got 13 this year and is slugging close to .500. He'd be a great #2 hitter if Oakland had a better leadoff man, which they don't.

Low OBP speedsters

Team	Player	PA	BA	OBP	BB	SB-CS
Seattle	B. Hunter	237	.287	.331	14	14
Texas	T. Goodwin	235	.238	.314	23	18
Tampa Bay	R. Winn	232	.288	.325	13	-1

Unfortunately, these are the guys you hear called "prototypical leadoff men." Good batting average, lots of stolen bases, but couldn't draw a walk to save their lives. Brian Hunter is the poster child for the low OBP speedster, and this season has been no different. He's miraculously posted a .338 OBP since arriving in Seattle, but that's still below league average and in no way justifies a leadoff job.

Likewise Randy Winn, who despite reportedly good speed (I've never seen his time in the 40-yard dash) isn't a good base stealer. Couple that with a .325 OBP, and you've got a very bad player at any spot in the lineup.

At least Tom Goodwin can steal bases. I still think players like Goodwin and Hunter can help a club off the bench, as defensive replacements and pinch-runners, but somehow they still have starting jobs. Goodwin is currently hurt, and may have lost his job to prospect Ruben Mateo permanently.

Better suited elsewhere

Team	Player	PA	BA	OBP	BB	SB-CS
Kansas City	C. Beltran	219	.292	.323	10	5
Minnesota	T. Walker	133	.256	.318	12	0

Carlos Beltran and Todd Walker are both good young players (Beltran being younger), but they really aren't suited to the top spot in the order. Beltran is just 22 and should develop into a pretty good power hitter and stolen base threat, but he's never been particularly adept at drawing walks in the minors, and as such isn't a high-OBP type.

Walker has struggled this season after a very good year in 1998, but he enjoyed most of his success further down in the order. This year the Twins don't really have any better options (although you could make a case for Matt Lawton), so Walker it is. Like Beltran, he'd be better off further down.

One-hit wonders

Team	Player	PA	BA	OBP	BB	SB-CS
Detroit	L. Polonia	84	.407	.419	3	5
Anaheim	O. Palmeiro	112	.296	.405	14	-2

Remember Luis Polonia? He was never really a bad player, but certainly no star. He's been hitting out of his mind since joining the Tigers last month, however. Polonia himself says he's a much better hitter after spending a year facing nothing but breaking pitches in the Mexican League, which is certainly one theory, but I'm not inclined to believe he can keep it up since he doesn't walk very often.

Next we come to Orlando Palmeiro, who for a time was Anaheim's leadoff guy when a struggling Darin Erstad lost the job. Palmeiro has drawn ten more walks than strikeouts this season, but I'm not a big believer in players who have better on-base percentages than slugging percentages (in Palmeiro's case, it's a 50-point differential), or who can't manage to slug .400 in the American League.

Erstad, hitting .299/.375 (OBP/SLG) after a horrible start, has been better of late, and seems to have "earned" his job back. File him under "Better suited elsewhere," since he's got decent, but not great, on-base ability and doesn't steal bases.

Finally, the great Bill James proposed a single statistic for rating leadoff hitters in the 1984 Baseball Abstract. The formula is as follows (thanks to Ron Johnson for this information):

([.35 * {singles + HBP + BB - SB - CS}] + [.55 * {2B + SB}] + [.8 * 3B] + HR) / (AB-H-CS)

The idea is that the ideal lead-off man would score 35% of the time he reaches first base, 55% of the time he reaches second, and 80% of the time he reaches third.

James then multiplied the result by 100, to estimate the number of runs per 100 outs. Using his formula, here's how the AL's leadoff men rate this season (I combined Palmeiro and Erstad's at-bats from when each was batting lead-off):

Player	Runs/100
L. Polonia	36.98
K. Lofton	35.75
B. Anderson	33.05
R. Durham	28.41
T. Phillips	27.56
S. Stewart	27.22
J. Offerman	27.12
C. Knoblauch	24.72
C. Beltran	23.88
Palmeiro/Erstad	21.79
B. Hunter	21.64
R. Winn	21.23
T. Walker	21.08
R. Winn	19.71

The only possible flaw I see is that it seems to lean quite a bit towards power hitting (note than Phillips rates slightly above Stewart, even though Shannon has a superior OBP and steals total). On the other hand it's easy to see why that would be, since it's easier for Phillips to score from second than it is for Stewart to score from first, all things being equal.

I found it interesting nonetheless, and it's tough to argue with Bill James on these sorts of things.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker will soon be coming to your town in the OBPMobile, which will feature tape loops of Tony Phillips chewing gum and a virtual reality ride where you try to draw a walk from Rod Beck (must be taller than Rickey Henderson's crouch to ride). Ask if there'll be a picturephone at jmb@strikethree.com.