Ballot Box Scandal?

Dave Paisley

Every year about this time, the first shots are fired in the All-Star balloting war. It's a relatively bloodless kind of war, a lot less gory than something like, say, the D-Day landings in Normandy, and for that we can all be grateful. But still, feelings  run deep and occasionally those feelings get trampled on in the heat of debate. There are several traditional questions about All-Star balloting and selection, and the crux of the matter is whether we are trying to reward performance or popularity.

It's not that clear cut, though, as those who would reward performance aren't always clear about what kind of performance they want to reward. Do you select someone for the All-Star team because they had a very hot April and their stats still look outstanding, even though they've never done anywhere near as well before and probably won't again? Do you pick the veteran who's usually been great but had a poor start to this season?

All good questions, and I don't know how to answer the questions to everyone's satisfaction. However, I do have a spreadsheet, and can at least analyze a little bit about who's getting the votes and whether they deserve them. So I'm going to analyze the All-Star voting over my next few columns. Starting with the American League catchers and outfielders and working my way along to the rest bit by bit.

AL Catchers
As this is the first table, I'll explain a bit about how it works. The table features most of the catchers on the All-Star ballot (excluding some who haven't played much and haven't garnered much in the way of votes. I show their offensive production rate measured by OPS (On base Plus Slugging, remember)  then I multiply that by their number of plate appearances to get a rough measure of their total contribution to their team, what I call Performance. This rewards guys who play every day, and weeds out those part-timers who have a fluky couple of days. Then I show their vote total, and finally figure out the Vote/Performance ratio by dividing votes by the performance number.  You'll have to bear with me here, because even I barely understand what I'm up to here. A little discussion of actual players  should help.
 
 

Player	Team	OPS	Performance (OPS*PA)	Votes	Votes /  Performance
I Rodriguez	Tex	.820	180	523,457	2902
C Johnson	Bal	.880	157	56,316	358
J Flaherty	TB	.758	144	22,296	155
B Ausmus	Det	.822	138	47,226	342
J Varitek *	Bos	.755	137	0	0
D Wilson	Sea	.740	125	66,104	525
J Posada	NYY	.680	102	70,311	685
D Fletcher	Tor	.926	98	33,829	345
T Steinbach	Min	.766	80	25,930	322
J Valentin *	Min	.718	76	0	0
S Alomar Jr.	Cle	.842	69	369,244	5284
M Matheny *	Tor	.608	68	0	0
A J Hinch	Oak	.534	64	0	0
M Macfarlane *	Oak	.703	63	0	0
T Lampkin *	Sea	.894	59	0	0
J Girardi *	NYY	.529	43	0	0
S Hatteberg	Bos	.560	19	25,765	1315

 
* Not on ballot
(Note: Zero votes for someone on the ballot indicates they were not in the top 10 vote-getters)

Right at the top of the list is Ivan Rodriguez. He doesn't have the best OPS, and it's a shade off from his recent numbers, but it's still pretty good. He plays every day almost, so his overall performance is the best of the bunch. He is the overwhelming vote leader so far, so his Votes/Performance number set the standard for the category. This selection at least is pretty clear. Anyone with a higher Votes/Performance ratio is obviously more popular than they deserve (unless backed up by stellar career performance.)

The big story here is obviously the hugely partisan voting of those sellout Cleveland crowds in voting for Sandy Alomar Jr. Sure, he's got a nice OPS going so far, but with under a hundred plate appearances, it's a joke that he's second in the balloting. Rodriguez is a good choice, while voting for Alomar is a travesty. Perhaps the big driver is the sentimental desire to see the two brothers both make the All-Star team from the same team. Nah, that's not sentimental, it's just mental.

Following Rodriguez in performance is Charles Johnson, who's having a nice year in Baltimore, which is a shame, because it's the last thing on an Oriole fan's mind right now. Johnson is in the in-between position of having decent name recognition due to a couple of highly publicized trades, but without a decent offensive history to back him up, he isn't even in the top five in voting. Two other guys having very pleasant years are Brad Ausmus and John Flaherty, but try getting the home town vote out for them.

Of the rest, Jorge Posada benefits from a hugely partisan Yankee ballot box stuffing, while Dan Wilson appears to be the beneficiary of some of the same effect from Seattle fans (my wife included, by the way.) One has to wonder about those Boston fans, too, voting for Scott Hatteberg. It's a shame the votes aren't transferable to Jason Varitek, who has done a nice job filling in.

AL Outfielders
With the odd notion of picking any three from the endless list of outfielders, I'm afraid this table gets a bit long. However,  there's no doubting the name at the top of the list. Ken Griffey Jr. is having an outstanding first half, and his popularity is as strong as it ever has been. Meanwhile, Manny "RBI" Ramirez and Kenny Lofton demonstrate that it doesn't hurt to play for the league leading team in a park that sells out every game. I just bet they have those ushers handing out ballots by the bushel. It wouldn't surprise me if they were handing out pre-punched ballots at the Jake.
 
 

Playe	Team	OPS	Performance (OPS*PA)	Votes	Votes/ Performance
K Griffey Jr.	Sea	1.097	283	847,412	2994
M Ramirez	Cle	1.026	258	437,075	1690
K Lofton	Cle	.959	255	383,941	1505
B J Surhoff	Bal	.933	242	78,484	324
S Green	Tor	1.012	237	127,012	534
B Anderson	Bal	.937	237	98,874	417
J Damon	KC	.859	224	0	0
B Williams	NYY	.868	221	247,316	1117
M Ordonez	ChA	.902	214	0	0
C Beltran	KC	.802	214	0	0
S Stewart	Tor	.757	213	54,995	257
J Gonzalez	Tex	.972	212	234,778	1103
R Greer	Tex	.853	212	65,508	308
J Cruz	Tor	.839	212	76,193	309
D Martinez	TB	.891	210	0	0
J Dye	KC	.866	205	35,846	175
A Belle	Bal	.787	204	153,572	751
T O'Leary	Bos	.837	200	50,806	253
G Anderson	Ana	.796	199	0	0
M Stairs *DH	Oak	.873	198	0	0
B Higginson	Det	.787	197	0	0
P O'Neill	NYY	.785	190	180,682	947
D Justice *	Cle	.920	176	288,816	1635
B Huskey	Sea	1.013	176	0	0
J Encarnacion	Det	.827	172	0	0
M Lawton	Min	.751	168	0	0
T Goodwin	Tex	.631	146	25,000	171
W Cordero *DH	Cle	.877	143	218,096	5180
B Hunter	Sea/Det	.643	135	0	0
T Salmon	Ana	1.085	122	66,572	543
T Hunter	Min	.599	122	0	0
D Lewis	Bos	.643	120	0	0
B Grieve	Oak	.600	106	0	0
Q McCracken	TB	.641	103	38932	375
J Buhner	Sea	.964	99	86340	870
D Buford	Bos	.725	92	0	0
C Curtis	NYY	.709	88	58450	660

 
* Played more as DH than outfielder
*DH On ballot as DH, even though has played more as an outfielder

It is nice to see the top three performers getting the top three spots so far, with little likelihood they'll be passed. Other leading vote-getters include Bernie Williams, seriously under-performing last year's numbers, but still getting that Yankee voting benefit, Juan Gonzalez, suffering from missing a few games, but also having one of his odd year off years. Just to beat the Cleveland thing to death, there's David Justice, who Cleveland fans apparently can't resist voting for, even though he's DH'ing more than he's playing the outfield. Notice his Votes/Performance number - double that of Griffey, indicating a serious case of overpopularity. Even Wil Cordero, the wife-beater himself, manages to garner a ton of votes. He's on the ballot as a DH, even though he's playing more in the outfield. So, really, Cleveland fans don't mind who they vote for, as long as they have that grinning caricature on their hats.

Likely to be overlooked in the final analysis for a place on the All-Star roster are Shawn Green, Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez and Rusty Greer, all of whom will likely get passed over for bigger names. It will be curious to see if Brady Anderson gets selected, as it might be tough to justify more than one Baltimore player on the team, and we all know who the first Oriole will be. And, no, it won't be Albert Belle, having a noticeably bad year, on and off the field.

Keeping the "Vote for a Yankee, any Yankee" campaign going, there's Chad Curtis picking up a ton of votes at the bottom of the pile, despite contributing less than the mostly injured Jay Buhner and Quinton McCracken.

So, for AL catchers and outfielders, the fans are getting it right so far. It remains to be seen whether Joe Torre will continue the trend with his additional selections. I'm guessing not.

Next up: AL infielders and DH's.

about the author

Dave Paisley believes he has the world's largest collection of baseball clichés, but there are a few he's missing. Offer up "round ball, round bat, hit it square" when you write him at drdjp@strikethree.com.