AL Vets Beg For Run Support

Dave Paisley

There aren't any big shocks in the American League comparable to the demise of Greg Maddux, as noted in the National league starters report a couple of days ago. Nevertheless, there are some interesting stories.

Perhaps the biggest is the warning against signing proven veteran free agent starters. The worst three starting pitchers in the league so far are all "proven veterans", but all they're really proving is that they've lost it. Two of them, Mark Clark and Tim Belcher, were relatively high-priced signings -- certainly higher than most clubs wanted to pay. The third is free agent-to-be Jeff Fassero, allegedly Seattle's number one starter, but, to steal a line from Austin Powers, he's pitching more like number two. But more of that later (Seattle pitching, not bad Austin Powers puns, baby.)

First, here's the chart with the OPS Against for qualifying American league starters as of June 10th:

There's been enough said already about Pedro Martinez (the drubbing by the Expos aside...) but look at David Cone, Jeff Weaver, Mike Sirotka and Jeff Suppan holding the fort at the good end. Meanwhile, there are your high-priced vets in the red zone at the right.

There are some surprises in the middle of the chart. Jamie Moyer is greatly improved after a rocky start, and is probably moving to the left as I write. However, the highly touted likes of Mike Mussina and his 7-3 record can be explained more in terms of run support than actual pitching excellence. Here are the top ten recipients of offensive largesse so far.

Pitcher	Team	Run Support per 9 Innings
B Colon	Cle	8.18
J Wright	Cle	8.06
C Nagy	Cle	8.00
F Garcia	Sea	7.55
B Witt	TB	7.51
J Weaver	Det	7.06
D Wells	Tor	6.96
M Mussina	Bal	6.96
T Belcher	Ana	6.95
M Clark	Tex	6.72

It's no big shock to see that Bartolo Colon, Jaret Wright and Charles Nagy are 1-2-3 in run support in the league. The Indians' offense has been phenomenal this year, and these three guys have been the primary recipients. It's all just the luck of the draw, though, as stablemate Dave Burba has had to settle for two less runs of support. If there was any justice, he would have Jaret Wright's share. Wright is lucky to be where he is, because that 4-3 record owes much more to phenomenal run support than good pitching, and you'd need a Space Shuttle to service that 7.91 ERA.

In Wright's defense, though, his OPS Against doesn't match his incredibly poor ERA. His OPS Against is just worse than average at .843. Compare that with Juan Guzman, whose OPS Against is a very similar .842, but whose ERA is an almost palatable 5.20.

There are a couple of ways of looking at this. First, there's the "blind luck" theory, where a pitcher gives up X amounts of hits and Y amount of walks. How they are bunched together is beyond his control. After all, he is trying to get every hitter out, isn't he? It isn't always possible to predict which ones he'll succeed with and which he won't. The other theory would be the "clutch pitching" theory. Broadly speaking, this gives a pitcher credit for "bearing down" and getting the outs when they count, with men on base.

In reality, the truth lies somewhere in between. There's a mixture of luck and skill, and it may vary from game to game. In all likelihood, the natural selection process for pitchers tends to weed out the pitchers who can't pitch through a little bad luck. Thus, the only pitchers who survive to have long careers are those who are able to avoid getting sucked into the death spiral of bad luck. It's either an enhancement of an innate quality or a development of a skill.

Another couple of teammate pitchers with disparate support are Seattle's Freddie Garcia, who's right behind Colon, Wright and company, and poor Jeff Fassero, who has to settle for 11th-worst support, while also pitching worse than anyone else in the league. All in all, he's lucky to have as good a record as 3-7 (and his OPS Against ticked just over the 1.000 mark after his latest shelling in Colorado.)

Pitcher	Team	Run Support per 9 Innings
C Carpenter	Tor	4.60
J Fassero	Sea	4.52
B Radke	Min	4.47
S Sparks	Ana	4.19
T Wakefield	Bos	4.04
G Heredia	Oak	4.02
C Finley	Ana	4.00
D Mlicki	Det	3.86
S Erickson	Bal	3.75
M Sirotka	ChW	3.75
R Mendoza	NYY	2.95
L Hawkins	Min	2.70

 
Wonder why Scott Erickson's numbers are so horrible? Try mixing a .888 OPS against and 7.11 ERA with the third-lowest run support in the league (a dismal 3.75) and you might be 1-8, too. Outright winner of the misery stakes is LaTroy Hawkins, with a mere 2.70 average runs of support in twelve outings. Can a pitcher sue for run support? Is there such a  thing as a deadbeat offense? If so, LaTroy needs to hire some good lawyers quick. Of course, Hawkins' 8.00+ ERA won't help him make the case to a judge that he really needs any support, or that he would be able to use it effectively.

However, Ramiro Mendoza (4.97 ERA), Mike Sirotka (2.66), Dave Mlicki (4.57), Chuck Finley, (4.35) Brad Radke (3.53) and Chris Carpenter (3.63) may want to club together and get a class action suit going. All are in the bottom 20% of run support, and not one of them has a winning record, while all have respectable ERAs -- some of them outstanding, as you can see.

Just this quick overview of the state of the pitching landscape shows that many things are not what they seem. I hope you have an appreciation for the fact that W-L records and even ERA aren't all they're cracked up to be -- no one stat is. But if you have to delve beneath the surface, it helps to know where to start looking.

about the author

Dave Paisley is currently working on a numerical measurement for "clubhouse leadership." He's not sure, but he thinks the number of thrown bats and arguments with the manager may need to be figured in. Suggest weighting the table towards plucky shortstops at drdjp@strikethree.com.