Professor Maddux Failing Mid-Terms

Dave Paisley

With the mid-point of the season in sight, it's time to take a look at some mid-term report cards. For lack of anywhere better to start, I'll kick off with National League starting pitching, not least because it gives me a chance to razz Greg Maddux right off the bat (as have many National League hitters, it would seem.)

I'll be taking a look at some behind the scenes numbers for the starters who've pitched enough innings to qualify for the stats leaderboard. In the National League to date, that's all of 53 pitchers.

Every year, if one of the big stars gets off to a poor start, the media starts wondering if the wheels are falling off. It usually turns out to be a mild run of bad luck, lousy run support, or some such easily dismissed temporary phenomenon. Not so for Greg Maddux this year.

But before we get to the juicy details, the following graph shows OPS allowed by the 53 qualifying starting pitchers in the National League, sorted left to right, from best to worst. (Remember, OPS is On base average Plus Slugging percentage.) Bear in mind the average fan is looking at W-L records and maybe ERA, to determine a pitcher's value, both of which can be deceiving. W-L records in particular are very dependent on run support, which can vary greatly, even between pitchers on the same team. But more of that later.

As a point of reference, think of a .550 OPS as being your average hitless wonder shortstop, such as, say, Rey Ordonez, while a .900 OPS is a not quite elite slugger. Last year, Barry Larkin, Glenallen Hill and Brian Jordan were all around .900.

What is up with Greg this year? He's never had an ERA over 3.00 when he's pitched 200 or more innings in a season (basically every year since his third major league season), yet it looks like he'll have a hard time getting it under 4.00 this year. He's been pitching more like the Nanny than the Professor.

Since a decent couple of games to start the season, Maddux has been lit up most starts since, including one major immolation against St. Louis May 4th (and no, the "forth" wasn't with Greg that night) featuring the McGwire grand slam followed by the infamous plunking of Ray Lankford by Maddux. The most telling note is perhaps the fact that Maddux has given up 111 hits in a mere 79 innings. He hasn't given up more hits than innings for a season since 1990. One theory is that the squeezed strike zone is forcing Maddux over the plate to get strikes, and wouldn't that be a novelty? If true, Maddux would rather get slammed around the park than give up a few more walks, apparently.

But enough of the Braves for now. Well, almost.

The best pitchers in the league make their average opponent look like Rey Ordonez, while the worst make their average foe look like Barry Larkin. Those elite guys include, as you can see, Kevin Tapani, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Mike Hampton and Kevin Millwood. Lurking just out of range of the green circle are Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown and (gasp!) ex-Brave Steve Avery. Tapani is an unexpected leader of the pack, but he's always been decent, if rarely outstanding. Last year he parlayed average pitching and good run support into a 19-9 record. With only 10 starts under his belt after taking most of April off due to injury, we can still say that it's a small sample size, and there' s plenty of time for Kevin to revert back to average form.

Kevin Millwood is something of a surprise to me, as he's obviously coming along very nicely. Just as well, given the relative meltdowns of Maddux and Glavine. Millwood has maintained a nice steady pace, never getting rocked, and never having given up more than four earned runs in a game. So, while we have one Brave at the wrong end, we have two at the good end.

In the middle, there's a whole pack of good but not great pitchers, like Pete Harnisch, Carlton Loewer, Darren Oliver, and yes, another Brave, Tom Glavine.

Beyond Maddux at what we might call the sucky end of the pitching spectrum, we have some of the more usual suspects. Sad to say, but the Japanese pitching invasion looks like it's breaking up like the USS Enterprise in an asteroid belt. Irabu and Nomo are hanging on, but Masato Yoshii defines the edge of pitching despair so far this season in the NL. While he's accompanied by a few youngsters still learning their craft, the name of Andy Benes stands out as one veteran who isn't earning his millions so far this year.

The few times I've seen St. Louis play this year, I've generally seen Kent Bottenfield pitch, and it's amazing how those TV commentators are all amazed at his burst into the limelight from a career of mediocrity. If anything, Bottenfield is the good karma poster boy this year. Despite a .831 OPS allowed, he has managed to keep his ERA under 4.00 (while it would normally be a shade over 5.00) and he's also had excellent run support of nearly 7 runs a game. Add it all up and you get a 9-2 record from rather so-so pitching.

Bottenfield seems to have stolen all the luck from teammate Jose Jimenez, who has a better OPS against at .814, but who has an ERA of 6.75 to go with it. Where Kent zigs, Jose zags. Throw in two runs less per game in support, and poor Jose is a lousy 2-7, despite, on the whole, pitching better. But I don't hear Joe Morgan telling me how unlucky poor Jose is.

Finally, a quick word about Run Support. It's one of the most underrated effects on a  pitchers record, and the effect can be huge. Best support in the league so far goes to Pedro Astacio, with 7.43 runs per nine innings. That's inflated by Coors field, of course, which also hurts Pedro in inflating his ERA. Next up, though is John Smoltz, with 7.32 runs. Youch! Give a guy like Smoltz that much support and he won't lose too many games. Other notables up there include Miguel Batista, Jon Lieber and Jose Lima, all with great records. Next up, though is Darren Dreifort, who has had plenty of run support, he's also coughed up a bunch, hence the mere 5-4 record.

At the Can't Buy Me Love end of the scale, we have poor Woody Williams, with less than half of Smoltz's support, at a lousy 3.55 runs per nine. He can sympathize with Carlton Loewer, Pete Harnisch, and Steve Trachsel, all of whom are under 4.00 and who have to pitch like Greg Maddux (er, wait, maybe that's not a good idea any more...) to get a chance at a win.

So there's the senior circuit. Check in soon for the heroes and villains of the AL pitching rotations.

about the author

Dave Paisley just loves it when Greg Maddux falls off his high horse. Keep him amused by sending mpegs of the "chicks dig the longball" Nike commercial to drdjp@strikethree.com.