Land of the Giants

Dave Paisley

So, of all the teams in the world to get possessed by aliens, it had to be the Giants? Especially with Barry Bonds out? They've scored 189 runs, given up 185, yet they have a record of 21-15. What kind of charmed life is this, and can they keep it up?

Based on those runs, they should be a solid 18-18, three games worse off than they are. Much like last year, though, their runs are coming when they need them, and they are winning by smaller amounts than they're losing by, resulting in a better record than their run scoring and prevention should permit. A lot better.

Not only that, but their raw offense, OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) is much lower than expected to generate the kind of runs they're getting. It's nothing short of amazing. They rank ninth out of sixteen in OPS, yet have the third highest runs scored total (behind the Braves and the equally baffling Diamondbacks), about 15% higher than the average. Indeed, the Cubs have a slightly higher OPS, but have scored about 20% fewer runs than these Giants. What, apart from tricks with smoke and mirrors, is keeping this boat afloat?

Well, sure, before he went on the DL, Barry Bonds was doing his usual thing, but that was almost a month ago, and yet the magic act has continued. The home run lead on the club is held jointly by three guys, each with five. (Five!) The same three guys all have twenty-something RBI, and all have an OPS over .900 The first two are no big surprise -- Jeff Kent and Ellis Burks. The surprising third is plucky shortstop Rich Aurilia. Sure, anyone can have a hot month, but this is becoming a habit.

After that, though, it's hard to see what's fueling the fire. Brent Mayne is batting a relatively empty .311, but that's actually pretty good for him. Scott Servais is picking up some of the catching and is hitting for a little more power, but a little less on base coverage. J. T. Snow is pretty bad for a first baseman, still. Stan Javier is keeping his head above water, while Marvin Benard isn't really.

Compensating for Rich Aurilia's power surge is the abysmal performance of Charlie Hayes, who has logged 100 AB of futility, registering an Ordonez-like OPS of .544.

Looking at this motley crew, it's pretty tough to figure out where all the runs are coming from.

Leading the way on the pitching staff is soon-to-be 25 year old Russ Ortiz, with a 2.49 ERA and a 5-2 record. He's continuing a pattern of keeping hits and home runs down, while featuring less than perfect control, walking almost five batters per nine innings. The alleged mainstays of the rotation, Shawn Estes and Kirk Reuter feature ERAs in the 6.00 range (5.71 and 6.25 respectively, to be exact) and are managing to escape avoid getting decisions, especially the bad kind. They're a combined 4-3 in 14 starts. So there's some of the charmed life right there.

Filling out the rotation are Mark Gardner, hammered both before and after a DL stint (0-3, 9.50 ERA), journeyman Chris Brock (3-2, 4.26 ERA) and rookie Joe Nathan (2-0, 2.35). Hmmmm, Mark Gardner or Joe Nathan? Unless I'm a Giants fan, I have to go with Gardner...

So, if I'm trying to figure out the secret of the Giants success, I doubt the answer lies here.

If a team is going to win a lot of squeakers, or win games late, it really needs a good bullpen, one that shut down the opposition after the starters have been smashed around a bit. And that's exactly what the Giants have.

Let's start with John Johnstone -- seven hits and four walks in 17.1 IP. Proud owner of three wins, Johnstone sports a 0.52 ERA. Back that up with lefty Rich Rodriguez (3.00 ERA), righty Felix Rodriguez (4.08 ERA), and oh, by the way, closer Robb Nen (4.34 ERA, 12 saves) and there's plenty to go around late in games. We won't mention Jerry Spradlin or Julian Tavarez, as their numbers are up in Mark Gardner-ugly territory.

So, the secret of the Giants success appears to be:

- take a mediocre offense with a disabled superstar
- throw in a pinch of crappy starting rotation with a hot sophomore
- stir in a pinch of hot bullpen and mix thoroughly.

But when, I ask, is the clock going to strike midnight for this bunch of pumpkins?

about the author

Dave Paisley has no particular axe to grind against the Giants, but, nevertheless, you can send him axe sharpening tips at drdjp@strikethree.com