Surprise, Surprise
(Part II - Bride of Surprise)

Dave Paisley

Over in the NL West, many people, myself included, expected the Dodgers to romp away with the division, leaving pretenders like the Diamondbacks in the dust. While that could still happen, it certainly hasn't started out that way. And then nobody expected the Giants to be major players, either, especially with Barry Bonds MIA, but they're a story for another day.

So on with our tale of the upstarts and the royalty.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Here's the scoop on the D-Backs so far this season:

Runs Scored	123 (3rd in NL)	.794 OPS
Runs Allowed	111 (tied for 13th)	4.23 ERA
Record	12-11	should be 13-10 from Pythagorean rule

Great offense, mediocre pitching - what's wrong with this picture? It wasn't supposed to be that way!

On the pitching front, things are working out well at the top of the rotation. The Diamondbacks' ace, Randy Johnson, is enjoying a 2-1 record in five starts, averaging almost eight innings an outing, but he's giving up better than one home run a game right now, and sports a good, but not great, ERA of 3.55. So far, he's looking like a so-so investment.

Todd Stottlemyre is doing almost as well as Johnson, with a better ERA (2.83) and only half the paycheck.

Omar Daal was looking very good until he got rocked by Houston on Thursday and now he only looks fairly good. Erstwhile ace Andy Benes has been nasty (and I don't mean that in the good sense), sporting an ERA over 8.00 while handing out way too many free passes and coughing up nine homers in a mere 24.2 innings. Armando Reynoso has proved to be adequate in the fifth starter/mop-up role.

The Arizona bullpen has been better than expected, after an awful start. Gregg Olson blew saves in each of his first three appearances, but has settled down, not giving up a run in his last five appearances while earning his only two saves so far. Greg Swindell is doing fine in the lefty setup role, but after that there's Nunez, Frascatore (a new citrus drink from Pepsi?) and Darren Holmes, none of whom have been badly lit up...yet, followed by sixth starter and trade bait, Brian Anderson, who has been. Lit up, that is.

The Arizona offense looked like it was going to suck pretty badly this year, so no matter how well the pitching did, it would be tough to win games. Some of the offense is, sure enough, living down to the low standards I expected, such as Steve Finley (a mere .750 OPS despite 5 homers already) and the woeful Tony Womack (a .546 OPS in far too many at-bats.)

However, Matt Williams is torrid, returning to something like his 1994 form. Eight homers so far and counting, along with a 1.081 OPS. Even hotter is Luis Gonzalez (1.229 OPS), who never hit like this for Detroit. His best month last year for the Tigers was an .882 OPS. Then we have Bernard Gilkey, at 1.009 OPS, albeit in limited action.

Jay Bell is flourishing offensively, as he did last year, although his middle infield partner, Tony Batista, has yet to heat up. The only other everyday notable is Travis Lee, who is having a nasty start to his sophomore year. Fortunately for him, all this other mad offense is keeping the heat off him for now.

So there you have the topsy-turvy Diamondbacks. Can they keep this up, against all evidence of their career numbers? I doubt it, but this hot start may propel them to something close to an even record this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers

And the scoop on the Dodgers goes like this:

Runs Scored	105 (7th in NL)	.779 OPS
Runs Allowed	111 (tied for 13th)	4.32 ERA
Record	12-10	should be 10-12 from Pythagorean rule

While playing in the very pitcher-friendly confines of Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers can never be expected to top the offensive charts, so a seventh-best run total is quite an accomplishment. Five of the everyday lineup are currently providing most of the offense, led by Raul Mondesi. Just as many of us knew he would, Adrian Beltre is emerging as a hot hitting talent, while Gary Sheffield continues to provide solid offense in addition to lots of child support.

Eric Young has been an unexpected boost in the lineup, getting on base at a .427 clip so far, with a lot of walks added to a .321 average. Don't expect it to last forever, though. Right after that, we have the much-maligned (and usually deservedly so) Eric Karros, whose .851 OPS is approaching respectability for a first baseman. Don't expect that to last too long, either.

The talk of the town, though, is Todd Hundley, he of the limp bat and the weak throwing arm. It was certainly a gamble to risk all the catching duty on his recovery, but it may yet turn around. Expect to see more of Paul LoDuca behind the plate if Hundley's woes persist to the end of May.

In the "well, what did you expect?" department, we have the weak hitting Mark Grudzielanek and Jose Vizcaino making an offensive sinkhole at short, and Devon White proving just about adequate in center.

The real problem with LA so far has been the pitching. Kevin Brown has done his $15M job. Ismael Valdes has started out nicely, too, as has Darren Dreifort, except for a nightmarish one walk per inning given up. However, Chan Ho Park has been inconsistent (a little too homer prone, too) and Carlos Perez has been downright awful, although his last appearance, in relief of Park in a blowout, hinted at a possible turnaround.

With a game on the line late, Jeff Shaw has been Mr. Reliable, with a measly six hits and two walks in 13.1 innings for a 0.68 ERA.

The rest of the pen, though has been awful in the early going. With Mel Rojas getting shelled worse than Kosovo, the Dodgers were finally able to ship him to Detroit with Dave Mlicki, even though they're still paying the full tab. Note that Rojas has continued to self-destruct, giving up 11 ER against Seattle in middle relief last week. Robinson Checo, obtained in the Detroit swap, proved to be no better, getting royally thrashed in two appearances before being sent to the minors.

It looks as though Pedro Borbon, Alan Mills and Onan Masaoka will have to carry the setup load. If Antonio Osuna can return anytime soon, or youngster Jeff Kubenka can step up, the pen won't be too bad the rest of the way.

Summary

So what are the future prospects for these two teams?

It looks like the Diamondbacks are hitting way over their heads right now, and a return to earth is inevitable. Unless Luis Gonzalez is this year's breakout, as Sammy Sosa was last year, the D-Backs' offense is surely headed downwards. On the other hand, the Dodgers have played through some pretty bad bad judgment, and have almost rebuilt the bullpen on the fly. it looks quite a bit better from here on out.

Question is, what are they going to do about the hated Giants?

about the author

Dave Paisley watched with great sadness as Pete Incaviglia was released last week. Tell him that Petey's spirit is still alive in Glenallen Hill.