Surprise, Surprise

Dave Paisley

As the season begins to take shape there are, as usual, a few surprises in the works. In the American League East, there are some good surprises and some bad surprises. On the good side we have the success of the Blue Jays and the early competitiveness of the Devil Rays, while on the bad side we have the Orioles, skydiving without a parachute.

As usual, though, the surprises are less of a surprise to some than others. The conventional baseball analysis world is aghast at the way the Baltimore Orioles are crashing and burning right now. However, to many of us looking at the situation with a more analytical eye, the situation was almost inevitable. Even then, few of us predicted it would be as bad as it looks now, though.

Unfortunately for Ray Miller, he's the victim of a stupid owner and two incredibly inept general managers. Not that Ray Miller is such a great manager, but even Miller Huggins couldn't rescue this team from the devastation wrought by Angelos, Gillick and Wren the last couple of years. Perhaps we'll all get lucky and Angelos will fire himself.

On the other hand, the Toronto Blue Jays were supposed to be devastated by the loss of Roger Clemens. Apparently, Roger couldn't see the quality team building up around him, either. That is, unless his trade demand was just a cynical ploy to get more money sooner. Even without him, the Jays are a formidable team, especially in the way they have bulked up offensively to support what has always been a decent pitching staff.

Let's take a look at what's driving these two teams in opposite directions.

First, the Orioles have scored 95 runs while giving up 134 and have a 5-15 record in 20 games. That's about two wins less than expected, based on runs scored (from the Pythagorean method). In more traditional numbers, the team ERA is 6.44, while team OPS is .723 (OK, so OPS isn't very traditional -- it will be soon...how about a lousy .251 batting average?) That 6.44 ERA looks horrible, but it gets even worse when you find out that, of all the starting pitchers they've used, only Mike Mussina has an ERA under 6.00, and his is barely under.

Given that Juan Guzman and Scott Erickson are a combined 0-7 with a collective ERA around 9.00, you might be getting a clue where the giant sucking sound is coming from. Ponson, Coppinger and Linton, filling the remaining starting slots, haven't really been the main part of the problem, but they haven't helped.

In contrast, the bullpen has a couple of bright spots. Mike Timlin, Mike Fetters and Ricky Bones have all done as well as can be expected while the barn burns down around their ears.

So the pitching staff is a wasteland. What of the hitting? Surely with Albert Belle et al., the batting can't be that bad? Well, Will Clark was off to a great start this season and is the only Oriole currently above a .900 OPS. Too bad he can't hit with a broken thumb. In fact, it's beginning to look like the rest of the lineup may be hitting with broken thumbs. Only Belle, Surhoff and Baines are currently over .800. With Charles Johnson and Delino DeShields currently in sub-Ordonez territory (under .500 OPS) it's easy to see why the O's are punchless.

This lack of offense is no shock, especially from Johnson and DeShields (and Bordick and Ripken), but the disintegration of the O's pitching is what has plunged this team to the bottom of the table.

Toronto, on the other hand, has scored 133 while only giving up 100 for a 13-9 record in 22 games. That's one win less than expected, but still excellent. Team ERA is 4.22 while the offense is a juggernaut, currently sporting an OPS of .838.

So what does the Jays' pitching looklike without Roger? David Wells and Pat Hentgen are both sporting ERAs over 5.00 with a combined 4-2 record. That's OK, but it's not the cause of their great success. How about rookie Roy Halladay, 2-0 over 20 innings without an earned run? [This was written before he was finally shelled Thursday night. Darn the luck. -ed.]] Or Chris Carpenter, 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA, or Kelvim Escobar, 2-0 with a 4.13 ERA. Without Joey Hamilton (0-2, 19.29 ERA and on the DL) the starters would look awesome. The bullpen isn't anything special, but Graeme Lloyd is doing a nice job and was a handy pickup in the Clemens trade.

Offensively, I've been very happy to see Shannon Stewart emerge as an excellent leadoff man. With a .443 OBP and currently slugging .530, he can fall off from those numbers quite a bit and still be a great guy to have around. Add to that a hot start from Shawn Green and (gasp!) Alex Gonzalez, and the rejuvenation of Tony Fernandez it's easy to see why runs are flowing freely. Just watch out for when Carlos Delgado and Jose Cruz Jr. get rolling. Overall, I can see some players maintaining a higher performance level, while those that do slip a bit will be compensated for when the big boppers heat up.

So what have we learned? These surprises are, for the most part, not really surprises. A little delving into the numbers shows the seeds of destruction or greatness were there all along.

Next up: Surprise II: The Diamondbacks and Dodgers.

about the author

Dave Paisley is currently jet lagged after a long cross-country flight. Let him know that the shirtless Chris Bosio he's seeing is just a hallucination at drdjp@strikethree.com.