Opening Week Quick Takes

Dave Paisley

A Mound of Woe

From what I can remember, the baseball season has always started slowly from an offensive point of view. The cool air seemed to keep the bats in hibernation, and the play-by-play guys would wax eloquent of the warmer days in July and August when the heat would coax bats into serious action.

Well, not any more. In recent years it seems that the season has opened with a several sticks of well placed offensive dynamite, and the cold seems to mostly result in stiffs on the mound.

There were several pitchers in the first couple of days who were outright roadkill. Leading the pack was Mr. Unfortunate, Andy Ashby, who was forced to showcase his lack of readiness before two entire nations -- make that three, presuming Canadians care about what happens in the NL West. Of the first 48 games played, his is the shortest outing by a starter, with by far the fewest outs recorded per batter faced.

The start of season pitching hall of shame looks like this so far:

Ashby (54.00 ERA), Kirk Reuter (32.40), Carl Pavano (27.00), Chad Ogea (18.90), Wilson Alvarez (16.20), Rick Helling (15.00), Bret Tomko (14.73), Jamie Moyer (12.00), Livan Hernandez (11.57), Tim Belcher (10.38), followed by Jeff Fassero, Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, Al Leiter, Jason Bere, Francisco Cordova and Jaret Wright, who all have ERAs below 10.00 but over 7.00.

Quickly, who is the odd man out in the list?

It just happens to be Mike Mussina, who is the only one to have escaped the pummeling with a win. Of the rest, the luckiest is Reuter, who didn't even take a loss (nor did Tomko, Belcher, Brown, Bere or Wright.)

The leader in actual runs allowed is Jamie Moyer, who gave up eight in six innings of work, four of them in his ill-fated attempt to carry on into the seventh inning. Along with his stablemate Jeff Fassero, it looks like Lou Piniella is going to try to milk his two veteran starters as long as possible before resorting to his young pen. D'oh! If this annihilation keeps up we'll never get to find out if the Mariner bullpen is any good this year.

Another pop quiz: what do Greg Maddux, Pat Hentgen and Dustin Hermanson have in common?

Answer: In 19 innings between them, they were the only three starters of those first 48 not to walk anyone.

It hasn't been a kind first few days for the big-ticket pitchers, either. Kevin Brown (noted on the list above) was certainly an unhappy camper in his first Dodger start, being bested by Randy Johnson in the early going, with neither of them getting a decision. Then there was Roger Clemens, unable to provide the Boss with a win his first time out.

Note to Randy Johnson: I told you so, big guy. Seven innings, two runs given up, even got a little offense, not a bad day at the office. But the pen let you down. Four out of five relievers allowed at least one run, the only exception being lefty specialist Greg Swindell, who struck out the only batter he faced. Get used to it, Big Unit, this is the face of baseball this year in Arizona. On many, many more occasions both the pen and the offense will let you down again. Be prepared for a long year of frustrating no-decisions or tight losses. Of course, counting all that money at night will take away some of the pain.

As I noted in from spring training, watch out for Gil Heredia leading off the A's rotation. While he didn't get the win against the Rocket, he did pitch very well. If he and Kenny Rogers can hold the rotation together, the A's might be, well, average this year. It will be more pitching than they've had for several years, at least.

Big Stick

Meanwhile, on the offensive front, Raul Mondesi is off to the races for the Juan Gonzalez RBI-meister award. With six in the first game, he was on an almost 1000 RBI pace for the season, but a slump in game two has now cut his projected total to a mere 486. Batting behind Gary Sheffield should give him a whole bunch of opportunities to cash runs in. Then there's also the extra batting opportunities afforded by all these Dodger extra inning games.

We may look back at the end of the season and see that these two extra-inning Dodger wins proved to be somewhat crucial in the final analysis. But wait -- what am I thinking? We all know that wins in April aren't as important as those in September. I've never managed to figure out how to do that math, though. If anybody knows the equation for calculating value of wins in different months, please drop me a line.

Big Hurt

He's back and he's bad! The Big Hurt spent the first couple of days of the season spanking Mariner pitching. Six hits, three of them doubles, and a walk in nine plate appearances. .750/.778/1.125. And those numbers come without benefit of a home run. Wait till he gets really focused.

Other sluggers adjusting nicely to new surroundings are Brian Jordan in Atlanta, Brian Giles in Pittsburgh, Bernard Gilkey in Arizona (don't expect this little flurry to last), and Albert Belle, who had a great day in the Baltimore opener.

So there you have it, runs aplenty in '99, with the promise of more to come. Maybe an ERA of 6.00 won't look so bad when the season's over.

about the author

Dave Paisley's new nickname is "The Big Harm." Dont piss him off or he's likely to give you a nasty Dutch rub, so write a polite e-mail to him at drdjp@strikethree.com.