Picks 'N' Predictions: AL Central

Jason Michael Barker

Presenting the American League Central, at long last. And only four days into the season! Much like its National League counterpart, the AL Central is a division of little mystery, if any, surrounding which team will wind up on top. Remember when Cleveland and their horrible stadium were the joke of Major League Baseball? Ah, those were the days.

1. Cleveland Indians -- That's a good deal of offense right there. Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Kenny Lofton, Richie Sexson, and that was last season. This season the Tribe also features Roberto Alomar, who isn't quite what he used to be, but a big step up at second base nonetheless. Sandy Alomar Jr. is a gaping hole on at the plate, but the rest of the lineup makes up for it; SS Omar Vizquel and 3B Travis Fryman aren't stars, but provide above-average offense for their respective positions. In addition to their bats, Fryman, Vizquel, Alomar and Thome make up a very nice defensive infield as well.

Cleveland's starting pitching is its weak suit, but hardly a huge deficiency. Bartolo Colon had a great first half last season, started the All-Star Game, and then wore out down the stretch, both in terms of performance and endurance. I wouldn't go so far as to say he was abused, but Hargrove rode him pretty hard in the first half, particularly in May and June when he averaged just over eight innings per start. He should bounce back and be just fine. I also expect a big year from Jaret Wright, who had an up and down year in 1998. Just 23, he'll be a great starter once he develops a decent breaking ball.

Dave Burba, Dwight Gooden and Charles Nagy round out the rotation. The former two pitched well last season, while the latter did not. Expect the trend to continue, but the Indians can afford to carry Nagy as their fifth starter given their bullpen, which might be the best in the league -- Steve Reed, Ricardo Rincon and Mike Jackson comprise a great righty/lefty/closer combination.

Cleveland will be the only team in the division with a better-than-.500 record.

2. Kansas City Royals -- KC? This high? Sure, and it isn't just because of their great record this spring (the best in baseball, in fact). I'm not sold on the Tigers as so many other people are, and I'm optimistic about the Royals' two top-notch rookies, who should see significant playing time this season. The pair -- 2B Carlos Feebles and CF Carlos Beltran -- tore up the minors last season and good be quite good in a hurry. The Royals have another good young hitter in Jeremy Giambi (currently on the DL) who should be with the big club soon enough.

This prediction is partially contingent on Kevin Appier staying in Kansas City, which to be honest doesn't seem all that likely. Appier is by far the Royals' best hurler, although youngsters Jeff Suppan and Jose Rosado (still just 24) have a great deal of potential to live up to. He'll likely be traded to a contender somewhere down the line, and hopefully the Royals will be able to get a good young player or two in return. The sooner he's dealt, the farther they'll slip in the standings (bottoming out at #4; still better than the Twinkies).

This certainly wasn't the case two or three years ago, but KC seems like a pretty good bet in three or four years, assuming they keep the current group of youngsters together and stop signing players like Jeff King and Chad Kreuter.

3. Detroit Tigers -- How are they supposed to win the wild card, as some folks have predicted, getting no offense from either CF or SS? Designated hitter Gregg Jefferies certainly isn't making up for it, that's for certain. The Motor City Kitties finished 12th in the league in scoring last season, and they don't look to move up all that much this season, although they should be somewhat improved.

Starting pitching is another sore spot, particularly after Justin Thompson and Brian Moehler. Willie Blair is still living off of his career year in 1997; he has yet to get back to that level of pitching, and he was never that great to begin with. Bryce Florie split time between the rotation, the bullpen and the disabled list last season, with mixed results. He was awesome at times, awful at others, and he still can't get lefties out with regularity (left-handed batters had a .386 OBP against him last season). Seth Greisinger, 6-9 with a 5.12 ERA as a rookie last season, begins the year on the disabled list.

The Tigers could conceivably move up and finish second in the division if they realize soon enough how much of an offensive black hole Hunter is in CF, and bring up Gabe Kapler from the minors. Or they might realize how empty Jefferies' batting average is, and DH Kapler instead. Either way, Detroit has room to improve without making a ton of changes, but it remains to be seen how soon they figure it out.

4. Chicago White Sox -- A little story: last year, the Mariners fired pitching coach Nardi Contreras, widely believed to be the cause of the M's bullpen problems. Contreras was hired by the White Sox, and I laughed. However, the Mariners' team ERA stayed about the same following his departure, while the Sox' young pitchers improved greatly in the second half of the season, shaving about a run off of their team ERA. Contreras was unfairly blamed in Seattle, and now he deserves credit for what he's done in Chicago.

The Pale Hose have some good young arms this season, and only two of the pitchers on their opening day roster (Jamie Navarro and Darren Hall) were born before 1971. Of particular note is James Baldwin, who had a fabulous second half last season after learning a two-seam fastball from, you guessed it, Contreras. Monday night, he shut down the Mariners, as did two hard-throwing relievers, Keith Foulke and Bill Simas. Tuesday, rookie Jim Parque allowed the M's just three runs in 6-2/3 innings.

Chicago also has a pretty good thing going at the top of their lineup, with Ray Durham, Mike Caruso, Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko batting one through four. Caruso still doesn't walk enough to warrant hitting second, but that may well come with age.

I picked them fourth because they don't have quite the talent that Detroit does, but this team could surprise some people and sneak up to second if they get a few breaks and a good year from a starter other than Baldwin.

5. Minnesota Twins -- I'll admit to waffling a bit on those last three picks, since I could reasonably see those teams finishing in any order in the middle of the division. No waffling here, though, since the Twins are hands down the worst team in the division.

This is an extremely young team, with no fewer than 10 rookies on the opening day roster. Of the 25 players on the active roster, nine were born in 1975 or later. The good news comes in the form of a number of young pitchers who could turn out to be pretty good if they can adjust to life in the majors -- Benj Sampson, Dan Perkins, and Mike Lincoln. I'm not expecting much this season, given the normal learning curve for pitchers.

The Minnesota offense drops off severely after 2B Todd Walker and LF Matt Lawton, to unknown rookies Chad Allen, Christian Guzman, and Javier Valentin. 100 losses is not out of the question, particularly if the young rotation struggles.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker has finally realized his dream and caught on with the St. Paul Saints -- the nun's habit arrives next week.. Give him massage tips at jmb@strikethree.com.