Picks 'N' Predictions: NL Central

Jason Michael Barker

Having completed both leagues' eastern and western divisions, the time has come to focus on the National League Central, followed by the American League Central this Thursday. I've been putting off the NL Central predictions for a number of reasons, not the least of which are that I think the winner is somewhat obvious, and after the first two or three teams the division really goes downhill. But alas, I don't get paid the big bucks to leave out a division. Come to think of it, I don't get paid the big bucks...

A few years ago the division was known as the Comedy Central, because in any given year there was so much mediocrity you didn't even know if a single team was capable of finishing with a .500 record. My, how things have changed. The NL Central now boasts one truly great team, a couple of pretty good teams, and only a fraction of the mediocrity it once did.

The Predictions

Houston Astros -- Was there really any doubt? They're the class of the division and are quickly becoming one of the best-run franchises in baseball. The Astros have done a wonderful job developing young players, and are reaping the benefits now; regulars Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Ken Caminiti, Shane Reynolds and Billy Wagner all began their big-league careers with the Astros. Last season's acquisitions of Moises Alou and Randy Johnson were made possible by a deep farm system, and there is still a ton of good young talent on the way: Lance Berkman, Scott Elarton, Richard Hidalgo, and Mitch Meluskey, to name a few.

The Astros have a very good offense, but they'll win the division thanks to their starting pitching, which just happens to be the best in the division. Mike Hampton and Shane Reynolds are solid, known commodities, while Sean Bergman and Jose Lima are coming off career years. For Bergman, 1998 was the first time he'd ever pitched well at all, so he could be expected to slip a bit. Lima pitched very well last season, but in far more innings (233.1) than he's ever worked before. Still, he seems less of a risk to decline.

The other two starters are Chris Holt and Scott Elarton, although Elarton will start the season in the pen. Holt had a nice rookie year in 1997, but missed all of last season to injury. He appears healthy at this juncture. Elarton is a tremendous prospect -- I'd put him third in the rotation with Bergman in the pen -- but it's hard to argue with manager Larry Dierker on issues of pitching.

St. Louis Cardinals -- Repeat after me: "Mark McGwire will not hit 70 home runs again." Not that the Big Mac attack will be the problem, however; the pitching will. The Cards should have a very good rotation this season, but of course Alan Benes and Matt Morris are out with injuries. That leaves oft-injured Donovan Osborne and Darren Oliver to carry the load, something they've never proven capable of in the past. They'll have help from unremarkable youngsters Manny Aybar and Jose Jiminez. Should they get desperate, closer Juan Acevedo could be moved into the starting rotation, where'd he be more valuable.

Despite this lack of pitching depth, the Cardinals have enough offense to win 85 games or so and maybe even challenge for the wild card. You know about Mac and J.D. Drew, and then there's 3B Fernando Tatis (.367/.505 after being traded to St. Louis), SS Edgar Renteria (~.350 OBP), Eric Davis and Ray Lankford. The latter two plus Drew might be the best outfield in baseball. Watch out in a few years when Tatis, Drew, and Renteria (all born in 1975) are coming into their prime years.

Cincinnati Reds -- The Reds have been a popular pick among statheads in recent years, but the team just hasn't quite performed as hoped. I think they'll take a step forward this season, but their time to shine isn't here quite yet.

Despite an injured Denny Neagle, the Reds have the makings of a pretty good starting rotation with Neagle (3.55 ERA, 210.1 innings), Pete Harnisch (3.19, 209.0), Brett Tomko (4.44, 210.1) and young Dennis Reyes, who pitched well with two major and two minor-league clubs last season. If Jason Bere regains his 1993-94 form (and he's pitched well this spring), the Reds could challenge Houston for the best rotation in the division.

On offense, the Reds have a glut of OF/1B types fighting for playing time. They have a nice core group in Sean Casey, Dmitri Young, Barry Larkin and Greg Vaughn, but they also have Pokey Reese, who can't get on base, and Mike Cameron, who's coming off a horrible season.

With an outfield of Young, Cameron and Vaughn, players such as Michael Tucker, Jeffrey Hammonds and Chris Stynes don't really have much playing time and would make nice trade bait. They could really use a leadoff man and another power threat in the order, so perhaps they can work something out involving the aforementioned spare parts.

Chicago Cubs -- No post-season this year, Sammy, and no 66 home runs either. It remains to be seen whether Sosa's plate discipline (career-high 78 walks last season) is a new facet of his game or simply a one-year fluke. Even if he has learned to be more selective and has another monster year, it won't be enough to carry the aging Cubs to the playoffs.

The primary reason for the decline is age. Among the regular position players, only starting SS Jose Hernandez is under 30, so the rest of the lineup can be reasonably expected to decline. The rotation was already weak coming into the season, and that was before the Cubs lost phenom Kerry Wood to elbow surgery. Kevin Tapani (4.85 ERA), Steve Traschel (4.46) and John Leiter (4.11) would make three-fifths of a good rotation -- if you added number one and two starters ahead of them.

Barring something unforeseen, the Cubs will have a hard time finishing with a .500 record this season, and their future doesn't look particularly bright, either.

Milwaukee Brewers -- Here's that mediocrity I was talking about. The Brewers aren't really a bad team, in the 90-100 losses sense, but more in the "80 wins at best" sense. This overall lack of talent extends to both sides of the ball.

There really isn't much starting pitching here at all, and two of their projected starters, Rafael Roque and Bill Pulsipher, are retreads from other organizations. Scott Karl is the known commodity in the rotation, and he's, well, known to be average (4.40, 192.1 last season). The real gem is Steve Woodard, a young soft-tosser with excellent control who isn't in the "soft-tosser who gets hit hard regularly" mold. Despite a below-average fastball, Woodard struck out 135 batters (along with just 33 walks) in 165 innings last season.

On offense, the Brewers have some decent parts but lack the complete package. For some reason 2B Fernando Vina hasn't been traded yet, despite a good prospect in Ronnie Belliard who's ready to play every day. Coming off a career year, Vina's trade value is at its highest right now, and he might be able to fetch a good young pitcher in return. Jeromy Burnitz is the only true power threat in a lineup of relatively weak hitters, although Mark Loretta, Dave Nilsson and Jeff Cirillo have good on-base ability.

Pittsburgh Pirates -- If you're a Pirates fan and you have some idea what the organization is doing, please e-mail me. The Bucs have some good young prospects, yet they insist on bringing in no-hit veterans such as Ed Sprague, Mike Benjamin and Pat Meares to take playing time away from Aramis Ramirez, Warren Morris, and Abraham Nunez. Is there any reason not to play these youngsters? If that weren't bad enough, the Pirates signed Kevin Young, a below-average first baseman, to four year contract this off-season. Egads, man!

Their pitching isn't actually that bad, most notably Francisco Cordova, Jason Schmidt, Pete Schourek in the rotation and some good arms in the bullpen. They traded Rincardo Rincon, their best reliever, to the Indians this winter, but got something they needed much more -- LF Brian Giles, one of the few Pirates who knows how to get on base. Still, this team isn't close to competing, thanks to some rather silly personnel moves.

At least they were smart enough to trade out-maker extraordinaire Tony Womack.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker painted three dozen leftover Easter eggs to look like baseballs, then snuck them into the spring training complex of the Arizona Diamondbacks in an attempt to create general mayhem. Explain that the change would have had the same effect on the D-Back hitters even if the eggs were raw when you write Jason at jmb@strikethree.com.