Advanced Season Predictions

Michael Cox

With the season upon us, You've already heard most of the learned predictions by the cooler heads here at Strikethree.com. Not that I'm not dead accurate: a quick recap of last season's prognostications yielded at least two dead-on prophecies:

• A team nobody expected to do anything would make it to the playoffs;
• The Braves would win 100 games.

In fact, I like those predictions so much that I think I'll make them again this year.

In all seriousness, I don't get out the slide rule and abacus like Dave Paisley when I look at the season to come -- I tend to use such advanced techniques as casting runes and consulting an "Executive Decision Maker" ($57 from Hammacher Schlemmer).

So, without any further dawdling, let's look at how they'll all end up when the dust clears:

National League

East

1. Atlanta -- They've got all the starting pitching marbles in the NL, and someone up there keeps finding someone to fit the closer role when their go-to guy goes to the DL. Second verse, same as the first, including the usual failure to win a World Series.

2. New York -- Damn they've improved. In fact, I'll go as far as to say that they'll make it an actual race for the Braves, and that they'll get the wild card. Rey Ordonez, however, will continue to be used as comic relief by flacks such as ourselves.

3. Montreal -- All praise Felipe Alou, the real man who would be responsible for saving baseball in Quebec. If, say, Lou Piniella or Jim Riggleman ran the 'Spos, they'd be in Virginia by now. Uh-oh -- is that Bud Selig picking up the phone?

4. Florida -- This is the boldest prediction I'll be making, and it's only because I think the Phillies are that bad. Side prediction: owner John Henry will be good for at least 20 side-splitting quotes this year.

5. Philadelphia -- They have no lineup, they have no rotation, they have no bullpen, unlike the Marlins, they have no plan, and they have no hope. Where did that "free agent fan" go?

Central

1. Houston -- Some folks are calling this division a "tossup." Eh-eh. Houston has a better lineup, pitching staff, and most importantly, a much better manager than anyone else in the division. Believe it or not, some people down there will actually be sad to see the Astrodome go.

2. St. Louis -- It's time to start up the "when will Mac be injured this year" pool. As opposed to last year, he'll almost welcome the time off while on the DL, because he won't have to deal with the pressure to break his own record. Unfortunately, they haven't really bothered with putting an actual team around McGwire, perhaps hoping that nobody would notice that it really is Carlos Baerga out there.

3. Chicago -- The 'S' on Sammy's chest is likely to become faded this season, and Kerry Wood was mishandled onto the DL for the year. Fortunately, the addition of Hideo Nomo will more than make up for all this...psyche. Why do Cubs fans not storm the Tribune Building with torches and pikes?

4. Cincinnati -- The remainder of the NLC is like a back alley, filled with the broken shells of teams that are long past their best days, holding out their hands as you pass by in hopes that you'll toss 'em a pizza crust or something. At least the Reds are trying to make you think they could be good.

5. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee -- I've given this much thought, and I just can't decide who's crappier. Locked in mortal combat for the worst record in baseball (along with the Twins), nobody's even stopped to wonder why these guys aren't building good teams for their new ballparks like the other teams that upgraded.

West

1. Los Angeles -- As they say in Vegas, money plays. If anybody falters in the early going, they'll be replaced. If the team stumbles, heads will roll. This is baseball Major Corporation style. Losing is not an option. They'll even keep Davey Johnson, even if every single team executive can't stand him, as long as he wins.

2. Arizona -- Okay, this is the boldest prediction I'll be making. Again, it isn't that the D-Backs are that good, it's that the rest of the division has declined that much. On the other hand, thanks to the decrepit D-Back offense, Randy Johnson may be the only pitcher with an ERA under 3 with a losing record.

3. Colorado -- Maybe the Rockies and D-Backs should merge, fire the lineup from Phoenix and the pitchers from Denver, move Coors Field to Alberquerque and implode the BOB. Then they'd have something. As it stands, the Rockies ain't goin' nowhere.

4. San Diego -- Last year was really a special thing if you were a Padre fan. Hope you took lots of photos.

5. San Francisco -- I'm seeing a trend here. New park coming, holding pattern (or worse) where personnel are concerned -- hey, the fans are gonna come out anyway, right? One more time -- you may not be able to find a decent pike anymore, but torches and pitchforks are still available at True Value.

Wild Card: New York.
NLCS Winner: Los Angeles defeats Atlanta.
MVP: Mark McGwire, St. Louis.
Cy Young: Randy Johnson, Arizona.
Rookie of the Year: J.D. Drew, St. Louis.
Manager of the Year: Larry Dierker, Houston.

American League

East

1. New York -- Not just a highly-paid team, they're a highly-paid, well-balanced team who find convenient adversity to surmount in order to be called a team with "heart." I'll give you that they don't exactly swagger, but I'd call them "businesslike," which is yucky when you think about it. Expect the sum of their parts to be less this year, but they'll still win in a walk.

2. Boston -- So they had no real intention of keeping Mo Vaughn. So there are questions about Tom Gordon's shoulder. So they have the most unproductive outfield this side of Kansas City...so why am I picking them second again?

3. Baltimore -- Oh yeah, I remember now.

4. Toronto -- Although they're most likely to decline this year, this is the Michael Cox Pick to Possibly Do Reeeeeally Well, If the Planets Align Correctly. It almost seems like Gord Ash has some kind of plan kicking around in that brain of his. I just wish he'd share it with the rest of the class.

5. Tampa Bay -- One of those teams referred to by most pundits as "hapless," I prefer to think that they're patterning themselves after their brothers to the south. This means that you can expect them to not start loading up on talent for a few more years, but that will soon be followed by a title. Just get out before they dismantle.

Central

1. Cleveland -- Well, duh.

2. Chicago -- In the ghetto that is the non-Cleveland portion of the ALC, the ChiSox are the only team with Frank Thomas. That alone should be the difference, as long as he's feeling up to it this year.

3. Detroit -- Alone in trying to build a young team for the opening of their new park next year, the Tigers thought they had Frank Thomas, and only after it was too late found out that they actually had Brian Hunter. Mike Illitch has sunk a fortune into keeping the Red Wings fans happy, so you'd think that would eventually happen across town too. No such luck...yet.

4. Kansas City -- They should be proud of their spring training record, because that's as close as they're gonna get to a title in some time. The team is waiting for a new owner for direction, and MLB owners are waiting to approve a new owner, apparently because the current Royals amuse them.

5. Minnesota -- Moving the team will almost be blessed relief. Nobody cares about the Twins -- not owner Carl Pohlad, and least of all Gov. Jesse "let NPR run ads" Ventura. Lots of fans will buy season tickets to get the Kirby Puckett bat, and the team will even be less painful to watch from those upper-deck seats. But not much.

West

1. Seattle -- I typed "Texas" here, then deleted it and typed "Anaheim"...it'll be that close. But the Mariners have the hands-down better offense, and their rotation should remain about average even with the loss of Randy Johnson. The key is the bullpen, and I'll risk jinxing them by saying once again what I've said the last two years: their bullpen can't get any worse.

2. Texas -- They've got what the Mariners have got, only a little less of everything. The Rangers do have the best closer in the ALW, however. Still, look for the torpedo tubes to be loaded with personnel if they start taking on water before June.

3. Anaheim -- Everything about the Angels looks really good, but just knowing their recent history makes me not want to pick them too high. This year they fed their propensity for rotund 1B/DH types with Mo Vaughn, and you could do a lot worse.

4. Oakland -- For the first time in three years, they're not fooling any of the "smart" writers into considering them for first place. Ironically, I think this year they may actually make it close to a four-way race for the division.

Wild Card: Texas.
NLCS Winner: Cleveland beats Seattle.
MVP: Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle.
Cy Young: Pedro Martinez, Boston.
Rookie of the Year: Eric Chavez, Oakland.
Manager of the Year: Mike Hargrove, Cleveland.

World Series: Cleveland defeats Los Angeles, 4 games to 2.

about the author

Michael Cox also predicts that by the end of the year, he'll have consumed some 573 beers, 68 ballpark hot dogs, and a scorecard (on a bet). Send Tums to mc@strikethree.com.