Picks 'N' Predictions: AL West

Jason Michael Barker

Welcome to the fourth installment of Picks 'N' Predictions, wherein we examine the situation in the American League West. Texas Rangers manager Johnny Oates recently called it the most competitive division in baseball, and I'm inclined to agree -- you could make a case for three, if not all four, teams winning the division this season. OK, so Oakland may be a bit of a long shot, but there doesn't seem to be much separating Anaheim, Seattle, and Texas other than geography.

The Predications
(Teams listed in expected order of finish)

Texas Rangers -- Much like their competition in this division, the Rangers aren't going to win many ballgames thanks to their pitching; they're going to simply outscore their opponents. No, Juan Gonzalez won't ever walk enough to post a .400 OBP, but his .366 clip isn't a problem as long as he keeps up his .600+ slugging percentage. On a positive note, he drew a career-high 46 walks last season and played in 154 games, his most since 1992.

Other weapons include underrated LF Rusty Greer (.386/.455 last season, an off year) and free agent addition 1B Raffy Palmeiro (.379/.565), the latter an improvement over Will Clark both at the plate and in the field. [Ummm... no.(tm) -- Webmaster] Throw in C Ivan Rodriguez (.358/.513), and you've got the third- or fourth-best offense in the league.

Offense is only half the game, however, and if anything will be the Rangers undoing, it'll be their pitching. Last season Rick Helling and Aaron Sele won 20 and 19 games respectively, thanks to some decent pitching and a ton of run support. While the run support may not be there and the won-loss records may get worse, I don't expect a decline from either pitcher.

Sele improved his strikeout rate last season while cutting his walk rate and is just 27, all of which point to continued success. Helling, also 27, got his first full-time chance last season and responded by holding batters to a .314 OBP. Neither pitcher has been overworked in the majors, and they give the Rangers a great one-two punch.

If the Rangers win the division, it could be due to the play of three men: John Wetteland, Tom Goodwin and Mark McLemore. Wetteland has been hurt this spring, and Texas needs him to pitch like he did last season, when he saved 42 of 47 with a 2.03 ERA. Leadoff man Goodwin had a career-best .373 OBP last season (he's a career .340), so some decline is likely, but too much and the Rangers will be in trouble. Finally, McLemore had a .369 OBP last season (career .342), so the same deal applies.

Key: Starting pitching. Sele and Helling can't carry the load alone, so one of Mark Clark, John Burkett or Esteban Loaiza must step up to provide support. The Rangers bullpen isn't all that deep, and can't afford to be overworked early in the season (particularly without Wetteland).

Seattle Mariners -- The M's went out and did basically nothing during the off-season (unless you count adding Tom Lampkin, Butch Huskey and John Mabry), but once again they must be considered contenders thanks to that wonderful offense. Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Alex Rodriguez lead an attack that was fifth in the league in runs last year, but which also missed Jay Buhner for over half the season. Buhner's back at full strength, as is new 2B Carlos Guillen, who has impressed this spring.

The M's starting rotation is another story. Veteran lefties Jeff Fassero and Jamie Moyer are the best one-two in the division, but are getting up there in age and could be due for an off year. Third starter hopefuls Butch Henry and Ken Cloude have pitched horribly this spring, while another hopeful, Mark Leiter, is hurt. That leaves untested rookies Freddy Garcia and Brent Hinchliffe to pick up the slack. Garcia is a great prospect but could use a full season of AAA, while Hinchliffe, 23, has never been regarded as such and could probably use some seasoning too.

The bullpen, for all its misery the past two seasons, has been nearly completely rebuilt. Gone are Mike Timlin, Heathcliff Slocumb and Tony Fossas; enter Jose Paniagua, Jose Mesa, and John Halama. At first glance it looks to be an improvement, and I think it will be in the long run as well.

Key: Lou Piniella. Now that he's decided to go with Garcia in the rotation, he's got to stick with him, instead of jerking him in and out of the rotation or bouncing him down to AAA at the first sign of trouble. He also needs to better manage his pitching staff in general, not to mention giving C Dan Wilson an occasional off day so he's not run down in September.

Anaheim Angels -- Again with the starting pitching. Sure, the Angels have plenty of offense with Jim Edmonds, Tim Salmon, Mo Vaughn, Darren Erstad and possibly Troy Glaus and Todd Greene, but who's in the rotation other than fragile Chuck Finley? OK, so they've got 37-year old workhorse Tim Belcher and a decent youngster in Jarrod Washburn, plus Omar Oliveras and Ken Hill. It all adds up to around a league-average finish, pitching-wise. That's not bad, but the Halo offense isn't great enough to overcome it.

That said, the Angels have the greatest potential to improve their team this season of any team in the division. As it stands, they have four outfielders in Salmon, Edmonds, Erstad and Garrett Anderson. As you know, a team can only play three outfielders at once, so a trade seems to be the answer. If they could somehow convince a team that Anderson (who's overrated, by the way) is worth a good starting pitcher, they'd instantly become the best team in the division.

The Angels already traded veteran out-maker Dave Hollins this week, meaning he won't be stealing any at-bats from Glaus or the DH spot, so that's a move in the right direction, although it might also mean Salmon will DH with Anderson playing full-time in the outfield.

Then there's Todd Greene, a good hitter who may or may not be able to catch this season. If he can't, he'll probably DH, leading to even more problems in the lineup, specifically in the outfield. But if he's healthy...watch out. Green catching 100 games this season is just what the Angels need to move up in the division, since it would allow them to trade Anderson and not play any of their assorted scrubs (Matt Walbeck, Charlie O'Brien ) at catcher too much.

Key: Greene's health. It all comes down to whether he can catch regularly or not. If he can, the Angels can go out and make a trade for the starting pitcher they desperately need. If he can't, it creates a logjam at DH and a parade of mediocrity playing behind the plate.

Oakland Athletics -- So close, and yet so far. Offensively, they have all the pieces in place and maturing nicely, including Ben Grieve, A.J. Hinch (look for a big step up this year), Eric Chavez, Ryan Christenson, Jason Giambi, Matt Stairs and Miguel Tejada. They have the veteran presence and on-base ability of Tim Raines and Tony Phillips (although together they seem a tad redundant), and a decent manager in Art Howe. What's missing? If you've read this far you can probably guess: starting pitching.

Last season Kenny Rogers turned in a great performance with for the A's, going 16-8 with a 3.17 ERA. Only Tom Candiotti and Jimmy Haynes, with 11 wins each, won more than seven games on last season's staff. Blake Stein, Mike Oquist, Ariel Prieto and Aaron Small started a combined 54 games, yet none of them had an ERA below 6.00. I suppose the upside is that Rogers will make good trade bait come July. Perhaps the A's can get a pitching prospect or two in return.

As much success as they've had developing position players over the years, the A's have done horribly when it comes to developing pitchers for whatever reason. Perhaps they haven't drafted well, or perhaps they've simply had bad luck. Either way, it's pitching that's holding them back this season, despite a terrific young offense that could be the best in the league in a few years.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is currently attending the Norm MacDonald Acting School, where he's learning the full range of thespian arts, from wisecracking to sarcastic retorts. Wish him and classmate Rickey Henderson luck in their final exam.