Picks 'N' Predictions: NL East

Jason Michael Barker

Today we focus our attention on the National League East, a division which has been dominated by Ted Turner's Atlanta Braves for essentially the entire decade. Only the Mets look like decent challengers to the throne this season, while the other three teams don't look like much of anything worth writing home about. This off-season I boldly predicted that the Mets would win the East, and that was before the Braves lost Andres Galarraga or Kerry Ligtenberg. Will I stick with that prediction, or back down like a VW Beetle in a monster truck rally? Read on.

The Predictions
(Teams listed in expected order of finish)

Atlanta Braves -- OK, so there goes the suspense. I really did considering sticking with the Mets, but in the end I just couldn't do it. More on the Mets later, however, because I still have big plans for them.

The Braves are still a very good team, even without Galarraga or Ligtenberg. You have to figure that both players were due to decline somewhat this season anyway, if only because they performed so well last year that it would be hard to top what they did. Ryan Klesko returns to 1B, his natural position, while Otis Nixon (looks like he's 40, hits like he's 30, runs like he's 20) takes over in left. The closer situation is still something of a mystery, although at least they know not to count on Ligtenberg returning this season. John Rocker is raw, but a good closer candidate nonetheless, especially considering the alternative (can you say "Mark Wohlers?").

Defensively, the Braves might boast the best outfield in baseball. Andruw Jones is an incredible defensive center fielder, and Brian Jordan is one of the best in right. Nixon, a former CF, should have no problem covering whatever Jones can't get to, which isn't much.

Defense aside, the Braves' philosophy begins and ends with pitching: Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine are three of the best in the game. Atlanta was so deep in the rotation that they were able to trade Denny Neagle (still not a good trade, by the way) to make room for phenom Bruce Chen. Assuming Kevin Millwood continues to improve, he and Chen should have no problem holding down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation.

Key: Health. The Braves have already lost Galarraga and Ligtenberg; they can't afford to lose another major piece of the puzzle. Jordan in particular has been quite injury prone over his career, as SS Walt Weiss has been recently.

New York Mets -- Wild card, all the way. And sure, this is a cop-out, but it wouldn't surprise me if they won the division. The Mets did more to improve their team this off-season than any other in baseball, and they weren't at all a bad team last year, finishing in second place at 88-74.

The Mets have a good offensive core, built around Mike Piazza and John Olerud, with supporting cast members which include Rickey Henderson, Robin Ventura, Brian McRae, and Edgardo Alfonzo. Alfonzo and Ventura should improve next season, while McRae had a career season last year and will probably slip a bit, and Rickey is, well, Rickey. Look for an OBP around .400, like usual, if he stays healthy.

In a late-breaking story, New York has also added veteran Orel Hershiser to the rotation. The Bulldog will replace Hideo Nomo, who has been nothing but a disappointment in the Big Apple and has now been sent on his merry way. The rest of the rotation is surprisingly solid -- Al Leiter and Rick Reed are an underrated duo who combined to win 33 games last season -- and the group as a whole has been healthy and consistent.

Key: Bobby Bonilla. Does he have another 1997 in him? He was healthy, hit .378/.468, and was a key part of the Marlins drive to the World Series. If he can bounce back from a horrible 1998, it'll be worth a few extra wins for the Mets, which could be the difference between unseating the Braves or early off-season golf.

Philadelphia Phillies -- The epitome of mediocre. The Phils have one great pitcher, one great hitter, and a whole bunch of other guys who either haven't lived up to their potential or are simply average players. The hitter, of course, is Scott Rolen, the best third baseman in the National League. Then there's Curt Schilling, who may or may not be traded daily, depending on which report you read.

Past Schilling, the rotation is full of holes and question marks, and huge question marks in larger holes. Paul Byrd came out of nowhere to pitch well over eight starts at the end of last season, but it remains to be seen if he can keep that up. Paul Spoljaric came over in a trade from the Mariners and will probably make the rotation. At times he's dominant; at others, he can't find the strike zone without the help of complicated positioning equipment.

Tyler Green is an injury waiting to happen, while Carlton Loewer is supposed to be a prospect but had an ERA over six last season. The Phillies will need some breaks in the rotation to wind up around .500.

Contrary to the above, Rolen isn't all alone on offense, although it's close (Bob Abreu, .409/.497 last season). Ron Gant replaces Gregg Jefferies in the outfield, which is certainly an improvement in the power department, but then again, who isn't an improvement on Gregg Jefferies? Brian Hunter, I suppose, but that's for another time.

Key: The starting rotation. With so many questions, the Phillies need to get solid (read: league-average or better) performances out of at least two pitchers other than Schilling if they hope to win 81 games. That really is their only reachable goal, since they're not as good as the Braves or Mets but much better than the Expos or Marlins and not really a threat to finish in the cellar.

Montreal Expos -- For the first time in a while, Les Expos didn't dump any talent this off-season. In fact, they have a pretty good young core of talented players to build around, assuming they can keep it together.

The Expos' strength is their starting pitching. Manager Felipe Alou is one of the best in the game at handling young pitchers, and last season he did a marvelous job with both Carl Pavano and Javier Vasquez. Pavano looks like an ace in the making, while Vasquez pitched quite well considering he had very little experience above single-A coming in to the season. He could take a huge step forward this season. Throw in Dustin Hermanson, and you've got quite the makings of a rotation.

In the bullpen, Alou relies primarily on unknowns such as Steve Kline, Anthony Telford and Miguel Batista to carry the load, although he has Ugueth Urbina to close things up at the end of the game, which certainly doesn't hurt.

On offense, some of the tools are in place, while others are still in the minors. Rondell White and Vladimir Guerrero make a terrific outfield tandem, and prospect Peter Burgeron could join them by mid-season. If he plays in center, it would allow White to move to left and endure less stress on his knees. The infield is considerably weaker, although prospects Michael Barrett and Fernando Seguignol could help as soon as this season if they can improve their plate discipline.

Despite all this optimism, the Expos really aren't ready to compete seriously this season. For that matter, a .500 record is probably a stretch. They aren't all that far away, however.

Key: Stability. If Montreal can manage to keep this group of players together and keep turning out good products from the farm system, they could be ready to compete in another two or three years, something they haven't been able to do since 1994.

Florida Marlins -- No, they still haven't recovered from last season's purge, although the departure of Jim Leyland helps their long-term outlook quite a bit. For instance, pitching prospect Rafael Medina, who shouldn't have been in the majors last season at 23, was recently sent down to AAA to work things out. Likewise, Livan Hernandez and Jesus Sanchez probably won't be overworked as they were last season, although for the former it may be too late.

The Marlins have three things going for them at this point: a good GM in Don Dombrowski, a great system of scouts and player evaluators, and a ton of talent. Keep in mind that the talent isn't a the major league level yet, and you won't be disappointed when they lose 90+ games again. Much like the Expos, they are potentially in a very good position to compete in three years or so, except that they have the one thing that the Expos don't: owner John Henry, who will be willing to spend the money necessary to win.

Key: Patience, particularly with their young pitchers. Hopefully the organization has learned from Jim Leyland's mistakes...or is it going to take Livan Hernandez' arm falling off for them to wake up? If they've learned, I really like their long-term outlook.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is better known as Jambi the Genie from the "Pee-Wee's Playhouse" TV show. Assist him in his copyright infringement suit against Jason Giambi at jmb@strikethree.com.