Fire Away

Dave Paisley

Where better to wind up our whirlwind of predictions than with the division containing the reigning and expected future World Series champions. And what fun this division promises to be.

The big news here is, of course, the firing of Tim Johnson over the fallout from Liargate. It's not very often that a guy gets canned for going 3-12 in spring training. Johnson has been a sinking ship for months, and it's about time the Jays got real about the issue.

But on we go to the actual baseball. As I've written before this off-season, the Yankees played brilliantly last year, but they also led something of a charmed life. Can everything go that well again? I doubt it. And yet even a year substantially worse than last year should still result in 100 wins, especially with Roger Clemens in the rotation. Like the Braves in the NL East, the Yankees should score more runs than their division rivals and give up fewer. It's pretty tough not to win the division handily with numbers like that.

Clemens, Cone, Pettitte and Hernandez make a formidable rotation and Mariano Rivera and his chums should be death on late-inning opposition comebacks, as usual. Meanwhile, back at the plate, Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada, Chuck Knoblauch and Derek Jeter will once again give their opposition fits. Scott Brosius will probably return to earth, though, and Ricky Ledee may not produce right away.

At the other end of the scale are the hapless Devil Rays. I outlined their plight a few weeks ago, and it isn't getting any prettier. Just to remind you, though, their plight is primarily their offense. Stocking up on the likes of John Flaherty and Kevin Stocker is the main problem. But it's all right for them to be lousy because they're an expansion team, and we all know they're expected to be awful.

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins
NY	.813	3.94	892	696	101
BOS	.789	4.28	844	754	90
BAL	.785	4.47	836	786	86
TOR	.771	4.33	809	763	86
TB	.707	4.59	682	807	68

The denizens of the hallowed halls of Fenway promise to deliver another brief trip to the playoffs this year via the wild card route. Their pitching, anchored by Pedro Martinez and perhaps eventually his brother, will be very good. Tom Gordon has become one of the ace closers in the league, so there's not much to worry about there, except perhaps Tim Wakefield getting slapped around once in a while.

The Boston offense is still somewhat problematical, however. Of late, the Red Sox have been the inverse of most teams, with some powerful offense generated by the infield and a distinct lack of offense from the outfield. This year is no different, with a potentially inept outfield of Buford, Lewis and O'Leary.

Losing Mo Vaughn is a distinct loss, and he really hasn't been replaced. If, as hinted, Jose Offerman spends any time at first, the loss will be substantial. DH will apparently be shared between Reggie Jefferson and Mike Stanley, and should provide acceptable offense from the slot.

Right behind the Red Sox, just like last year, the Blue Jays and Orioles should battle it out for third place. Of course, it's not fair to battle with the elderly, so those polite Canadians may allow the Orioles to go ahead of them, especially if they fear an Albert Belle body block if they don't get out of the way.

In between cashing their pension checks, the Orioles should manage to win about 86 games. While that isn't too shabby, it's not enough to actually win anything. Apart from recruiting mostly from geriatric care facilities, the other theme they're continuing this year is the "ex-Mariner reliever bullpen." With Mike Timlin and Heathcliff Slocumb, the O's have managed to improve on last year's choice of Norm Charlton (who is in the Devil Rays camp this year, once again proving even a dead lefty can still find a hint of a major league job...)

Charles Johnson has a lot to prove with the bat this year. Was 1997 a fluke, or was it 1998? Johnson isn't ever going to be a Mike Piazza, but it wouldn't hurt for him to prove he isn't John Flaherty either. Other than that, expect continued offensive ineptitude from Cal Ripken and Mike Bordick. Remember Cal when you're putting together that hacking mass team.

And then there are those untrustworthy Blue Jays. Jim Fregosi actually isn't a bad choice to manage the team, but isn't it tiresome how the same old retreads keep popping up? Talk about unimaginative.

On the field, things would be much better if only they could have persuaded Roger Clemens that they actually have a pretty good team. Maybe The Rocket thinks that late season run last year was all his doing, which would only prove that while he may be a great pitcher, but he ain't no rocket scientist. With him, the Jays would have had a great chance at the wild card and a decent chance at winning the division if the Yanks had somehow failed to meet expectations.

It would be somewhat ironic if The Rocket flamed out with the Yanks and the Blue Jays managed to crank it up a notch and win the division. Don't bet the farm on that happening, though.

So to recap:

Yanks likely to win division - ho hum.

Red Sox make playoffs but make early exit - so what's new?

Orioles consume 800 lb. of Geritol and get to bed early every day.

Blue Jays make like NASA - lose Rocket, but find a way to keep going.

Devil Rays -- Unlike the New Carissa, it won't take a torpedo from a nuclear sub to sink this ship.

about the author

Dave Paisley just returned from spring training in Arizona, and after being pushed aside by Todd Stottlemyre, Dave says he'll never wash those ribs again. Explain that not doing so will only make the bruising worse at drdjp@strikethree.com.