Picks 'N' Predictions: NL West

Jason Michael Barker

We interrupt your regularly scheduled spring injury report to bring you the second edition of Picks 'N' Predictions, which promises not to tear any young pitcher's medial collateral ligament. Today we'll look at the National League West, where dollars make the game go 'round. On paper, teams not willing to spend the big money (San Francisco, San Diego) appear to have little chance of competing, but you never know. Of course, that's why they actually play the games instead of looking at a silly sheet of paper.

The Predictions
(Expected order of finish)

Los Angeles Dodgers -- The Dodgers will win the division this season for three reasons: 1) Kevin Brown, 2) Davey Johnson, and 3) Lack of competition.

Brown is the ace on an already excellent pitching staff, and new manager Davey Johnson is particularly adept at handling a staff -- Brown, Ismael Valdes, Carlos Perez, Chan Ho Park and Darren Dreifort might be the best starting five outside of a little town called Atlanta. The Dodger bullpen is slightly suspect, although Johnson should be able to squeeze an above-average collective performance out them.

Offensively, LA still leaves something to be desired. Gary Sheffield is a fabulous hitter, although he seems somewhat uninterested in baseball at this point, which could affect his performance on the field. Free agent signee Devon White brings tremendous defense in center, although his offense (.335/.456 last season) is unremarkable. Same goes for 1B Eric Karros (.355/.475) and 2B Eric Young (.355/.396), while SS Mark Grudzielanek (.311/.362) is simply a poor hitter. Top 3B prospect Adrian Beltre (.278/.369) will have to hit like he did in the minors to make up the difference.

Key: Todd Hundley. If Hundley is healthy and able to catch regularly and hit like he did before his surgery, the Dodgers will be much better off offensively. If he can't play regularly, they'll be forced to go with veteran Rick Wilkins or rookie Angel Pena. Wilkins doesn't bring much of anything anymore, and Pena, while a good prospect, isn't quite ready yet and should start the season at AAA.

Colorado Rockies -- Just as with the American League East, picking the middle of the division isn't an easy proposition. I'll go with the Rockies because it just seems like their turn to finish second. OK, so there's more of a reason than that.

As usual, the Rockies will score a ton of runs, most of them at Coors Field. Todd Helton and Larry Walker are good hitters even without Coors helping them out, and leadoff man Darryl Hamilton is a good OBP guy thanks to drawing walks, not the altitude.

Of course, the Rockie pitching will suffer, but not as much as you might think -- the Rockies' staff was actually right at league average last season when pitching on the road. See, it's not their fault. Well, not entirely, anyway. There is some talent there, you just have to look beyond the gaudy ERAs and home runs allowed.

Finally, it will be interesting to see how new manager Jim Leyland handles things in Colorado, both on the pitching and hitting sides. After abusing a very young staff last season, Leyland now has a relatively old group of pitchers, and a very unique park in which to work. Historically he's favored "little ball" techniques such as the hit-and-run, stealing bases and bunting runners over, but those strategies aren't really suited for Coors Field, where playing for one run early in the game is downright silly.

Key: Smart management. This is more of a long-term goal, but the Rockies need to wake up and realize that Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla just aren't that great of hitters, and stop giving them big contracts. It's all about park effects, people. That, and they need to realize what kinds of pitchers (those who induce a ton of ground balls and strikeouts) to bring in as free agents.

San Francisco Giants -- Everyone said their luck was going to run out last season after a surprising 1997, and for the most part they were right, except that the Giants still managed to win 89 games and were about three runs short of winning the Wild Card. You'd expect them to decline even further this season, since they're basically bringing back the same team; unfortunately, that includes the same pitching staff that was their downfall last season.

Ah, the pitching staff. Mark Gardner, Shawn Estes and Kirk Reuter are the hold-overs in the rotation, with a couple of youngsters competing for the fourth and fifth spots. Gardner and Reuter can be counted on for around 200 innings of about 4.25 ERA ball, which would be great for the middle of the rotation, but simply doesn't cut it at the top. Meanwhile, who knows what to expect from Estes? There was the first-rate 1997 version (19-5, 3.18), but then there's also the 1998 version (7-12, 5.06) which includes an injury. Estes could be the difference between the Giants finishing second or fourth in the division.

On offense, SF boasts a lineup of relative unknowns with the exception of Barry Bonds and Ellis Burks. Jeff Kent put up good numbers last season (.359/.555) as well. All three players are getting up there in years, however, and some decline should be expected. The good news is underrated 3B Bill Mueller, often overlooked because he doesn't hit for power. What he does do is draw walks and get on base at a good clip -- .369 OBP in 1997, .383 last season. In addition, the Giants drew the most walks in the league last season, and plate discipline isn't something that generally declines as sharply as, say, power or speed.

Key: The starting rotation. If Gardner and Reuter can maintain their 1998 levels and Estes returns to his 1997 form, the Giants could be in the hunt for the wild card once again. They could also use a strong performance from whom ever winds up as the fourth starter, be it Chris Brock or Russ Ortiz.

Arizona Diamondbacks -- I've seen them predicted as high as second, and while they've improved tremendously this off-season, I just don't see it. Yes, their pitching is better with the additions of Randy Johnson and Todd Stottlemyre, but in reality their starters weren't all that bad last season, particularly Omar Daal, Brian Anderson and Andy Benes. In adding Johnson, Stottlemyre and Armando Reynoso, Arizona was rumored to be trying to trade Anderson, but so far that hasn't happened. They could have saved themselves the trouble by simply not signing Reynoso, choosing instead to focus on...

Their offense. OK, let's be fair. The D-Backs thought they were addressing the offense, but they signed Steve Finley and traded for Tony Womack and Luis Gonzalez, which certainly isn't the way to get ahead in baseball. Finley was simply horrible last season, and Womack is one of the most overrated players in all the land, and that was before being moved to the outfield.

So yes, it's going to be a fabulous rotation, and yes, the team is vastly improved over last season. They probably won't finish in the cellar (see below), and it wouldn't surprise me if they finished at or around the .500 mark. But second place? Last I checked, you still had to score runs to win ball games.

Key: Patience. Arizona has a "win now" mentality which simply isn't realistic given their offense or the state of their farm system. Not that the system is poor, it's just a year or two away. If only they could be merged with the Athletics: imagine the A's farm system turning out great homegrown position players, and the D-Backs signing free agent pitchers such as Benes, Johnson and Stottlemyre. Sigh.

San Diego Padres -- From worst to first, and back again. There really isn't much to say that you don't already know. Kevin Brown, Joey Hamilton, Ken Caminiti and Greg Vaughn are all gone. Tony Gwynn and Wally Joyner are aging and on the decline. Shortstop Chris Gomez isn't all that good, and starting catcher Carlos Hernandez, who just signed a big contract extension, is out for the year. Andy Ashby had a career season in '98 but fell apart over the last two months of the season, a bad sign of things to come.

The good news? The Padres were smart enough to let Steve Finley leave via free agency, and they'll replace him with perennial prospect Ruben Rivera, a favorite of mine. Rivera should be a huge upgrade over Finley, who had a very poor year at the plate in 1998. 2B Quilvio Veras, a good OBP guy and another personal fave, should be counted on to improve if he can stay healthy.

So other than CF and 2B, a decline is likely at every position on the field, not to mention the starting rotation. The bullpen was a strong suit last year, and should be again this season if the Pads can unload pricey veteran Randy Myers. So far there haven't been any takers, surprise surprise.

Key: Rebuilding. Even with all the departed veterans, this isn't a particularly young team, and there isn't a ton of hope in the minors. Closer Trevor Hoffman would have made great trade bait, but at the risk of a huge public relations fiasco. The Padres have a new stadium opening in a few years, and at this point it doesn't appear they'll have much of a team to play in it.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker auditioned for the role of one of the "old links" in the HotBot commercial but was turned down because they were looking for an "Otis Nixon Type." Tell Jason he'd have looked good in the legwarmers at jmb@strikethree.com.