Picks 'N' Predictions:
American League East

Jason Michael Barker

Making these picks and predictions is my favorite part of the off-season, because it means the real season is just around the corner -- there's less than a month to go until opening day around Major League Baseball. Today, we'll take a spin around the AL East, where I can bet you can guess who'll come out on top. Don't worry, though, as there are surprises to come in the other divisions. Look for this series to continue every Monday and Thursday.

The Predictions
(Teams listed in expected order of finish)

New York Yankees -- No, I don't think they'll be quite as good as they were last season, but they're still the class of the division. The starting rotation is superb, with David Cone, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Orlando Hernandez, and the Yanks boast one of the game's better bullpens as well. Add it all up, and you've got  the best top-to-bottom staff in the league.

Offensively, the Yankees don't suffer at any position on the field. They are particularly strong up the middle (adhering to that old baseball cliché), with SS Derek Jeter, 2B Chuck Knoblauch, C Jorge Posada and CF Bernie Williams. Williams' health, and that of Cone, are concerns to be sure, but even without 100% contributions from those two New York is strong enough to repeat in the East.

Key: Keeping everyone healthy and focused. That includes Joe Torre, whos bout with prostate cancer could serve as motivation or a distraction. Williams and DH Chili Davis both missed considerable time last season, and the rest of the team is getting up there in age (Cone, Paul O'Neill, Scott Brosius).

Boston Red Sox -- I really struggled with picking the middle of the division, where I feel not much separates Boston, Toronto, and Baltimore. In the end, the Red Sox get the nod because they're not as old as the Orioles, and they didn't just hire Jim Fregosi as their manager.

Much has been made of the loss of Mo Vaughn, and while he certainly be a big loss (pun intended), the Sox don't get enough credit for signing Jose Offerman. No, Offerman won't completely make up for what Vaughn provided with the bat, and no, he shouldn't be put at first, where he'd be sub-par offensively. If the Red Sox decided that he's really better off at 2B, they'd have one of the better middle infields in baseball with Offerman and Nomar Garciaparra. This is important since the outfield is relatively punchless.

On the pitching end of things, the rotation begins and ends with Pedro Martinez. Tim Wakefield is no star, but he eats up a ton of innings at around league-average performance, as should Bret Saberhagen if his arm holds up. The dark horse is Pedro's brother Ramon, who could be ready by the All-Star break. When healthy he's an ace-caliber pitcher, and the Sox would be able to add him mid-season without giving anything up.

Key: The starting rotation. Martinez, Wakefield and Saberhagen are a good top three if they all stay healthy, but after that Mark Portugal and/or Derek Lowe must step up. The Sox also have some good youngsters (Brian Barkley, Jin Ho Cho) who could be called upon sooner rather than later if Ramon Martinez isn't ready as expected.

Toronto Blue Jays -- The Jays made two huge moves this off-season which dramatically affect their 1999 outlook. The first was trading Roger Clemens, which turned them from Wild Card favorite to a team that simply isn't as good. The second was the firing of manager Tim Johnson, which should have been taken care of months ago. Perhaps the Jays would have had a more productive off-season without the cloud of Johnson's lies hanging over the team.

Former Phillies field general Jim Fregosi takes over for Johnson, which is a potential clash of style and personnel. Fregosi is best known for his work with veterans (see the 1993 Phillies), while GM Gord Ash has done his best to build around a core of young talent on both sides of the ball. The Jays are led offensively by Carlos Delgado, Jose Cruz Jr., Shawn Green and Shannon Stewart, a young group who showed considerable production and promise last season.

Youthful talent abounds in the rotation as well, with Kelvim Escobar, Cris Carpenter and Roy Halladay all competing for starting spots after David Wells, Pat Hentgen and Joey Hamilton. Escobar has been worked quite a bit recently and might be better off closing games, where he excelled down the stretch in 1997.

Key: Fregosi's patience with the young players. He needs to stick with an outfield of Green, Cruz and Stewart, and avoid the temptation to send Cruz down if he struggles, in addition to finding playing time at third base for Tom Evans. He also must ride the delicate balance between sticking with Escobar and Halladay and being careful not to abuse their delicate arms.

Baltimore Orioles -- The Orioles were one of the biggest flops in baseball last season, despite predictions to the contrary by many so-called "experts." Look for the decline to continue, despite the addition of slugger Albert Belle. Why? The O's are worse off at two positions, first and second, where Will Clark and Delino DeShields will replace Rafael Palmeiro and Roberto Alomar. Clark and DeShields are solid players, but don't bring as much with the bat or the glove as their predecessors. Baltimore also lost Eric Davis' production, and Belle can only make up for so much.

Then there's the inevitable decline at third base with the offensive black hole known as Cal Ripken Jr. With the Streak over and done with, it's clear he's just sticking around for 3000 hits at this point. Of course there's not much behind him, and that includes non-prospect Ryan Minor. The best prospect in the organization, Calvin Pickering, could easily start the season at 1B or DH and thrive, but he's inexplicably been sent to the team's minor league camp.

The starting rotation is also a question mark, at least after Mike Mussina. Scott Kamieniecki and Juan Guzman can both turn in good performances, but are also very inconsistent from year to year. Even Mussina is far from a sure thing, as he always seems to come down with a nagging injury during the season. Still, he's a Cy candidate in any given year. On a positive note, Aruban Sidney Ponson will win a job in the rotation, and he looks to be a good one.

Key: Age. Age (or rather, lack of youth) is a big deal on this team for two reasons: health (i.e., injury risk) and performance. The Orioles can't afford a major injury to one of their key players, nor can they afford a big drop-off in production from Clark, DeShields, B.J. Surhoff, or Harold Baines.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays -- Yes, they're better off than last season, but still not quite up to snuff. Pitching will once again be their strong suit, with a rotation led by Rolando Arrojo, Tony Saunders, and Wilson Alvarez, and a bullpen led by Roberto Hernandez, Jim Mecir and Esteban Yan. You might be surprised to learn that the Rays had the third-best ERA in the league last season, and that doesn't look to change much.

Their problem in 1999 will be the same as it was last season -- inability to score runs. As good as the pitching was last season, the Tampa offense was even worse. The D-Rays were last in the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and (as you might guess) runs scored. In fact, TB's 620 runs scored was nearly 100 fewer than those scored by Kansas City, who finished second-to-last in the AL.

It's reasonable to expect some improvement from the offense, both from younger players improving and veterans bouncing back from poor seasons. With the pitching staying about the same and a few more runs being scored, the Rays should improve their record slightly over last season, but won't be able to climb out of the cellar.

Key: Finding some sort of organizational direction. The Rays have gone the veteran route in the first couple of seasons, with middling to poor results. The young players they do have are cut from a similar mold -- high-average slap hitters with poor plate discipline. This isn't the way to compete.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker was hoping to land the Toronto managerial job, but his name was removed from consideration when it was discovered that he lied about his time with the Peace Corps. Offer similar stories or your condolences to jmb@strikethree.com.