Don't Look Back
(You Might Need a Telescope)

Dave Paisley

Could life get more lopsided than the American League Central? Last year the Indians were the only team in the division to finish above even money, and with the White Sox dumping Albert Belle and Robin Ventura, the odds on a repeat of last year are looking pretty good. Assuming the Royals, Twins and Tigers don't suddenly become competitive, that is, although that's about as likely as James Cameron giving back his Titanic Oscar. This division is where all those AL losses go to die. It means that most AL East and West teams can have winning records. Isn't that kind?

The only uncharitable organization in the division is the Cleveland Indians. With Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome and a fairly decent supporting cast, the Indians continue to have the makings of a decent offense. Distractions like Omar Vizquel's little tantrum about his seven-year, "low-paying" contract may provide for some idle chatter during spring training, but once the season gets under way, it'll be all business.

In the pitching department, young Bartolo Colon has settled for a measly $220K for one season rather than sign a cheapo long-term contract. Provided he doesn't let Mike Hargrove abuse him this year, he's positioning himself for a much bigger payday sooner than the Indians would like. The Tribe seems to have no use for a solid, if aging, starter like Orel Hershiser, because apparently those aces Dave Burba and Dwight Gooden are tough to beat out. Hershiser's problem is that the Indians staff is all either young or mediocre. There's no way he replaces Colon or Wright, and he'd only replace Burba, Gooden or Nagy if they got injured for an extended period. I'm still puzzled why he signed with them in the first place, and why they wanted him. However, with his "get out of jail free" clause, he should be somewhere more appreciative soon.

After Cleveland, the division hierarchy is mostly moot. Whether the Tigers, White Sox or Twins finish twenty games back really isn't that fascinating. And let's not even think about the Royals. If they trade Kevin Appier they may not even win sixty games, and that would be very sad, in a pathetic kind of way.

The Tigers may have a slightly more laid-back attitude under Larry Parrish, but the primary obstacle to their success is mostly spelling. How many of you can spell Greisinger and Moehler correctly? And does Thompson have a 'p' in it or not? Then there's the pronunciation. Just imagine the nightmare for the opponents' announcers.

But even that isn't quite the nightmare that being a Tigers' season ticket holder will be. Just imagine 81 games of Brian Hunter hacking away. Unless he's the cornerstone of your hacking mass team, it's just not going to be a pretty sight. Apart from black holes like Hunter, the team has a few bright spots offensively, but it won't be enough to counter some dismal pitching.

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins
CLE	.799	4.28	864	754	92
DET	.752	4.78	771	839	74
CHI	.766	5.19	799	909	71
MIN	.756	5.07	779	889	71
KC	.710	4.95	688	868	63

Despite some dismal managing last year, the White Sox struggled to a reasonable record. Frank Thomas took the season off, either because he couldn't hack the DH role, or because he couldn't focus through divorce squabbles. One bad year doesn't ruin a career, but he'll have to bounce back substantially in 1999 to avoid some nasty gossip. It'll be tough regardless, because the Pale Hose have no pitching once again (Jaime Navarro: staff ace again?), and even less offense around Frank to build on.

This will be something of a put-up or shut-up year for Paul Konerko. After being one of the Dodgers' hottest prospects, he failed to impress in a short stint filling in for Karros early last season, and was shipped to the Reds, then Chicago. He's doing well in spring, but it will take at least a couple of months to see if he can start to cash in some of his potential. If he does, the White Sox may win about 73 games, instead of 71.

Over in Twin-land, things aren't much different. Less offense, slightly better pitching, just about the same result. Brad Radke should shine as well as humanly possible with this little offense, and Eric Milton should start to fulfill some of his promise. After that they're faced with the likes of Serafini, Hawkins and Sampson. Not looking too good, is it?

Offensively, they face the prospect of more decline from Terry Steinbach, and not much production from the outfield, third and short. David Ortiz and Todd Walker are the only two potential bright spots and neither is doing well in spring, and Ortiz is coming off a lengthy rehab stint. Is all that depressing enough for you? If it isn't, let's move on to the Royals.

A team almost entirely devoid of talent, the Royals seem intent on unloading what little they have in Kevin Appier and Jose Rosado. Trading them away won't make much difference unless they can somehow get the entire starting lineup of the Yankees in return. And don't let that sparkling record in spring training fool you. If you'd ever been to spring training you'd realize just how little the results of those games matter, and how meaningless the statistics are. Do I really believe that Chad Kreuter is a 1.200 OPS kind of guy? Of course not. And the Royals aren't a winning team, either.

So, as boring as it may be, the AL Central won't look much different than it did last year.

about the author

Dave Paisley has learned to sit behind the wire screen during spring training games after Royals manager Tony Muser repeatedly instructed his pitchers to throw at Dave for his insolent "analysis." Form a support group at drdjp@strikethree.com.