The South Will Rise Again
(Ad Infinitum)

Dave Paisley

Quick -- what do you get when you have a team that scores more runs than anyone in its division and gives up less? If you guessed a runaway division win, you'd be right.

If you were to guess that the team in question is the Atlanta Braves, you'd be right again.

For the trifecta, guess how many people outside of the southeast give a rat's behind about it. If you guessed zero, you win the grand prize, whatever that is.

The Braves have won their division eight of the last nine years, and it sure doesn't look like much is going to change this season. Of course, it doesn't hurt that their competition in recent times has included the pathetic Phillies and Expos, and with the exception of their brief flurry of competence in 1997, the Marlins. Rounding out the division we have the Mets, who are improving but just not there yet.

The Atlanta offense doesn't project out much worse than last year, despite the loss of Andres Galarraga. That is unless they do something silly, like trading for Hal Morris or Jeff King as has been rumored. I'm not expecting much out of Bret Boone, but Javier Lopez, Chipper and Andruw Jones, and Brian Jordan should provide enough to compensate. Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz will be their usual overpowering selves, but the remainder of the pitching staff is more of a question mark, with Millwood and Chen filling the last two starting slots.

While it doesn't hurt on the surface, their depth suffers if someone goes down early in the season. I guess I'm still amazed they gave away Neagle for so little. It'll be interesting to see if Ligtenberg can come back from his injury and continue last year's form in the bullpen, as well as John Rocker's emergence. And what of Mark Wohlers? It should be fun watching the Braves piece together a bullpen. Still, whatever they patch together will be good for 98 wins or so, and yet another division title.

Here are my 1999 NL East predictions:

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins
ATL	.775	3.75	816	663	98
NYM	.743	3.93	753	693	88
MON	.721	4.12	710	726	79
PHI	.719	4.42	706	775	74
FLA	.681	4.56	631	799	62

The Mets have made some key moves, adding Mike Piazza permanently to the lineup and signing Robin Ventura. But after John Olerud, their power drops off rapidly. Rickey Henderson should get on base at his usual clip at the top of the order, but Alfonzo, Cedeno and McRae just don't add enough offense to compensate for the presence of Rey Ordonez.

Overall, it's a marginally better than average offense, but without the basic tools to compete with Atlanta. As if competing with the Braves isn't tough enough on offense, try the pitching. Leiter, Reed, Jones, Nomo and Yoshii aren't bad, in fact they're pretty good. They just aren't of the same caliber as their division rivals.

A possible surprise this year in the East is the Montreal Expos, if the demise of the franchise in the city doesn't distract the on-field talent too much. And believe me, as long as they're getting paid, they really don't care where the team calls home or who's signing the checks. Anchored by Vladimir Guerrero, Rondell White, and to a lesser extent, Brad Fullmer, the Expo offense should be just about average.

Their pitching doesn't have any big names, but Dustin Hermanson and Carl Pavano head a young but developing staff. With Ugueth Urbina to anchor the bullpen, this team could surprise everyone by struggling toward respectability. Or maybe it's just my soft spot for the city showing through.

In Philadelphia, there's mighty slim pickings on the offensive front. After Scott Rolen and Bob Abreu there's just nothing to get excited about, unless you count Ron Gant. They do have Rey Ordonez Lite though, in Desi Relaford. The Phillie pitching is even slimmer, and will be non-existent once they trade Curt Schilling. If that happens early in the season, expect the Phillies to drop under 70 wins, which still may not be enough for them to hit the cellar. That's because our final contenders in the NL East sweepstakes are the Florida Marlins.

The Marlins won't be so bad because of their pitching. It isn't great, but Alex Fernandez will return (unless auctioned off) and Livan Hernandez is a decent second starter (if his arm hasn't fallen off.) No, although sub-par, pitching won't be the problem. The Florida offense is the real culprit. It'll be interesting to see if Alex Gonzalez (the other one) can actually hit better than the pitching staff. Add Jorge Fabregas to that contest, too. Throw in the underachieving outfielders Kotsay and Dunwoody and you have the makings of offensive powerlessness the likes of which hasn't been seen since the dead ball era.

So, much as I hate to say it, it sure looks like the Braves have the division by the throat again. Maybe I'll just keep sending this column in year after year until Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz retire.

about the author

He refuses to talk about it, but we once actually caught Dave Paisley watching baseball on the Superstation. He said he was just "researching an article," but we don't believe him. Air your skepticism at drdjp@strikethree.com.