The Way Things Will Be

Derek Zumsteg

While baseball currently looks a grim thing, dominated by the super-teams, what's it going to look like in five years? Will the super teams eventually be beaten by smarter, nimbler teams?

In some cases. My bold predictions for the near-term future of every AL franchise: whether in five years they'll be great, good, average, poor, or terrible.

American League

Anaheim Angels, good. I don't like their pattern of signing decent players to big contracts they can underperform to. That's not a winning formula anywhere in the league. But Disney has some money, I've been told, and the Angels should be able to eat contracts, sign free agents to cover temporary holes, and then eat those contracts to. This is likely the start for the 'binge' portion of the cycle. Disney can't like Fox getting all the good press with the Dodgers, and I've got the feeling they're going to open the pocketbook in coming years. That'll do for a while, but whether the Angels follow proven ways to build a long-term success will determine what happens in the next ten and beyond.

Baltimore Orioles, average. An old team that each season seeks to cure its ills with old players. This is not, obviously, a formula for long term success. It can work for a while, done well, but this is a team with a lot of money that spends it in ill-advised ways. This year with a couple free agents bolting town, the Orioles could easily have made the transition to being a younger, more competitive club with money left to spend on a free-agent pitcher or pour into player development -- whatever. Instead they bought Albert Belle a ticket out of Chicago and signed Delino DeShields, neither bad moves exactly, but an indicator that in coming years Baltimore's going to try and keep their ship afloat with free agent veterans.

Boston Red Sox, average. I'm torn. Dan Duquette sometimes seems a smart GM, taking one of the better tacks to building good teams: signing superstars and supporting them with relatively cheap good players. It works. It's not as good as say, the Astros, who are more inclined to find solutions within their own organization, but it's good. However, every year it seems like the roster is rife with the walking wounded. The Red Sox have an opportunity to upgrade their outfield, put together a decent rotation and leave only, say, the last two spots for Duquette's fetish picks, and build a young, strong team led by Nomar and Pedro that can dominate. Instead they'll keep on playing for the wild card with a weak outfield, weakness at a couple of random infield positions, and a pitching staff that's not going to start winning.

Chicago White Sox, poor. A team that can't figure out whether it wants to strangle itself or not. A bad manager, a bad owner, a bad organization. Frank Thomas should be calling human rights organizations to get himself somewhere where he'll be treated well. If I could have one organization melt down and be forced to disband, I'd pick the Yankees. Then the Brewers. Then the White Sox. Can't put any team together, but can't seem to lose, either, propped up by players who deserve better. This isn't a team that's going to put it together, and will likely blunder along at .400-.500 for the foreseeable future as players start to defect to more pleasant places to work.

Cleveland Indians, good. Cleveland's done a good job of surrounding their great young players with a supporting staff, and that's smarter than many franchises ever get. So what if they don't win 100 games a season, they've kept a winning team on the field for a long while now, and done it without, say, writing blank checks to Scott Boras.

Detroit Tigers, poor. The way to success isn't with players who can't get on base. The output of good players is lost in this quagmire of stupidity. I have no idea what this team wants to develop into, and neither do they. In five years they'll still win about 70 games and lose 90, barring new management or enlightenment.

Kansas City Royals, poor-good. Cursed with the worst GM in the game, this team will not find long-term success until Herk Robinson is chased from town. If new ownership brings in a new, smart front office, this is a franchise that could return from the dead to make the Indians work for their titles. I'd like to see it.

Minnesota Twins, average. Their lineup of all-young players can only improve from here, and since they've left the offensive flotsam like Otis Nixon at a truck stop in one of the Dakotas, they seem to have seen the light. Their bleating about payroll woes aside, this is a club that's going to improve this year, and the next, probably to challenge for a wild card while on a youth movement. They've got great players in Todd Walker and Eric Milton, and if the Twins would only spend some good money to tie these guys up and carry a modest payroll, they could be great. If they do so to get their new ballpark, their prospects are great. Otherwise, they'll be the Expos circa 1995-6 on their way to 97-98, and that's no good.

New York Yankees, excellent. The Yankees are one of the superteams with unlimited resources that annoy me. They put together a great team with a lot of good farm talent and largely good free agent pickups, and they seem to already be forgetting how they got there. It's nice of them to give Scott Brosius that contract, but he sucks, really. And these monster contracts to old players, well, that'll haunt them. But for the Yankees I don't think it'll matter. There's good prospects in the system, the Yankees will continue to pick off the best international talent with big, Publisher's Clearing House-size checks, and sign the best free agents. They'll win as they decline and then win some more as they rise again. I can't imagine a way in which the Yankees wouldn't contend in the AL East for the next five years, even with some spectacular failures in player signings/development. They'll be mortal, but that's all.

Oakland Athletics, excellent. I used to hate the A's, back when Jose Canseco took money from kids for autographs while I cheered Will Clark across the bay. I laughed when they fell apart and openly mocked people who wore A's caps. They're turning out young hitters that scare other teams, hitters with power and strike-zone judgment (anti-Tigers, really). Their weak spot is pitching; Oakland has never been able to grow their own, and their recent drafts look like a promising but mixed bag. If they can start to turn that around, or keep their rotation together with discards and free agent signings, they'll be great to watch in the coming years.

Seattle Mariners, terrible. Led by an inept and entrenched idiot for a manager, a second idiot for a GM together forming a brain void rivaled by few clubs in all of baseball. This is a team getting a beautiful new ballpark that will, once again, be looking at the ass end of the division standings. The farm system is nearly barren of help, their free agent signings are consistently terrible, and there's really no question in my mind that Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez will find greener pastures to play in when their contracts end. This is a team that's been designed for years to win a weak division and break into the playoffs and no more. Already they've become a team that will struggle to reach .500, and they've lost me, life-long fan, to the Astros. I hope everyone in the front office, from Piniella and Woodward on down, is purged old Soviet-style and sent to Kansas City or New York or Milwaukee, towns that deserve this kind of treatment.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays, terrible. They might as well clone Rey Ordonez or Charles Johnson for all the good it would do this team. Their personnel moves verge on insanity. Despite their great pitching, they're never going to win if they don't score any runs. Likely to become New York's farm team for pitching, as New York unloads Paul O'Neill and other aging hitters on steep declines to BoggsLand to a team that can't get enough of Fred McGriff.

Texas Rangers, good. This division looks pretty good except for those stupid Mariners, doesn't it? They're into re-signing their stars, even when they don't particularly get along with them (Pudge) which bodes well for their ability to value talent over face. A decent farm system is balanced against their weird need to trade from it, but what's the farm system for if you're going to platoon role players? In a couple of years, this is a franchise will reel off 90 win seasons repeatedly and might even escape that 'wilt in the heat' thing the media loves to beat to death every year.

Toronto Blue Jays, average. Their strange moves of 98 don't bode well, and trading Clemens for David Wells and a beer to be named later, signing Joey Cora... why do teams do dumb stuff like this? The Blue Jays seemed to have seen the light late last year, when they went to a younger, better lineup (and were roasted by idiots in the media) that won games, but the Clemens trade shows the Gord Ash may have just stumbled onto that solution. They've got great young players, but I don't think they'll figure out what to do with them.

about the author

Derek Zumsteg writes articles when he's not shirking his duties as webmaster and resident beer taster. Lambaste him for his lapses at dmz@strikethree.com.