It's in the Cards

or, "I'll Keep Picking Them Till They Win..."

Dave Paisley

Last year, the NL Central produced surprising runaway division winners in the Houston Astros. It wasn't actually so surprising, though, given that they picked up a seriously motivated Randy Johnson with eight weeks left in the season. However, just like their playoff rivals, the Padres, the Astros were unable to hold onto their high priced free agent ace, and things are back to the way they were early last year.

Their rotation isn't too bad, with Mike Hampton, Shane Reynolds and Jose Lima returning, and the promising Scott Elarton to add in. Behind the plate, a spot opens up for the promising Mitch Meluskey with the trade of Brad Ausmus, while Ken Caminiti returns to the Astro fold. Hopefully, he can stay healthy and avoid gimping ineffectively into the playoffs again.

Losing Moises Alou for a while is something of a blow, but they have adequate backup in Richard Hidalgo, so the loss shouldn't be too devastating. So the Astros will be fine, but this year they should get a stronger challenge from Tony LaRussa's boys.

Speaking of whom, the biggest disappointment in the division last year was the non-contention of the Cardinals. A disappointing and unlucky year for the pitching and a lack of quality offense around McGwire doomed their season early on. Eric Davis and Edgar Renteria are newcomers, with the former providing offense and the latter defense.

Acquiring Carlos Baerga to play second this year wasn't exactly a step in the right direction, but Fernando Tatis should compensate by developing at third. The bullpen should be very solid with Juan Acevedo returning as closer and newly-acquired Ricky Bottalico as backup. Scott Radinsky will be providing solid setup from the left side. With a bit more luck than last year, they should contend quite happily, challenging the Astros for the division, and winning it narrowly.

While I have the Cards winning by a couple of games, this one could go either way, with the loser becoming the front runner for the wild card.

What about those friendly, chirpy, lovable Cubs, I hear you ask? Well, I just don't expect quite such a charmed life for them this season, including a return to relative normalcy for Sammy Sosa. He could have a great year and still be way off last year's aberration. Kerry Wood will be fun to watch if Riggleman can avoid abusing him and having to shut him down again. Will Gary Gaetti be productive while drawing his pension? The Cubs should be an interesting team to watch, but they just don't have the wherewithal to compete at the top level.

Next in the firing order are the Cincinnati Reds. With approximately 821 outfield and first base prospects, the difficult part for them will be figuring which ones to play. Add to that the uncertainty of which Greg Vaughn will show up, and the Reds look like a .500 team.

The bottom end of the division is a toss-up between two franchises without a clue. Pittsburgh had the sense to unload Tony Womack, but only because they'd already signed Mike Benjamin. Credit them for acquiring Brian Giles, but take away three points for signing Pat Meares.

Deservedly bringing up the rear should be the Milwaukee Brewers. With Jim Abbott and Sean Berry the only major newcomers, nothing much has changed, and that includes their lack of contention.

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins
STL	.805	4.26	875	748	94
HOU	.773	4.00	812	705	92
CHI	.749	4.36	765	765	81
CIN	.728	4.26	723	748	78
PIT	.731	4.46	729	782	75
MIL	.730	4.63	727	811	72

Relative to last season, I show the Cardinals beefing up on both offense and defense, for a 13% overall improvement. Meanwhile, the Astros are going the other way, losing offense and pitching, especially the latter. The Cubs lose some offense, gain a little on pitching (buh-bye Mark Clark...) and they drop back to about .500, maybe a wild card contender with a bit of luck. Down at the bottom, it doesn't really matter what the Pirates and Brewers are up to, and precluding massive improvement from nowhere, they'll just be hanging around the bottom.

Team	Offense 99/98	Pitching 99/98	Overall 99/98
STL	1.08	1.05	1.13
HOU	0.93	0.88	0.82
CHI	0.92	1.04	0.95
CIN	0.96	1.02	0.98
PIT	1.12	0.92	1.03
MIL	1.03	1.00	1.03

So there you go. An interesting division race is shaping up, which isn't necessarily true of the next division I'll assess: the NL East.

about the author

Dave Paisley isn't so sure about Milwaukee's Miller Park -- he half-expects Rev. Robert Schuller to be meeting fans at the door. Suggest that Benny Hinn might be a better fit for the Brew Crew at drdjp@strikethree.com.