Feeling a Draft?

Jason Michael Barker

Got a fantasy league draft coming up? If not, go right out and get involved in a league of some sort. It's a great way to maintain your interest in baseball throughout the long season, even in August, after your favorite team has already been eliminated from playoff contention.

If you're already in a league, here are some things to keep in mind come draft day:

Value relative to position.
It's much more important to have a great catcher or shortstop than it is to have a great first baseman, because there are so many more good first basemen than there are shortstops or catchers. Think about it -- at first, you'd be fine with Mark McGwire, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Mo Vaughn, John Olerud, Raffy Palmeiro, Jeff Bagwell, and so on. But at shortstop, there's Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, Barry Larkin, and all the rest. At catcher, it's Mike Piazza, Pudge Rodriguez, Jason Kendall and maybe Jorge Posada, then a cast of thousands. Second base is even thinner, with a huge drop-off after the great Craig Biggio.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.
This will vary depending on how your league works, but you should try to obtain at least one ace starting pitcher -- Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, etc. -- to anchor your starting rotation. Not only are they very good pitchers, but they tend to eat a ton of innings while posting low ERAs, WHIPs, and winning quite a few games.

Also, look for pitchers pitching on very good teams who could win a ton of games without pitching all that well, as in David Wells or Rick Helling last season. Later on, try to grab mediocre-to-good starters who should give you 200+ innings. Oh, and be sure to avoid any pitcher who pitches for the Colorado Rockies. I don't care how good he is -- park effects will make him otherwise.

Key in on potentially undervalued players.
The first name that comes to mind is Frank Thomas, who might be undervalued in your league. He's coming off of a poor season (by his own lofty standards), but I expect him to bounce back this season. Other possible late-round steals include James Baldwin (pitched very well down the stretch), Ismael Valdez (new manager Davey Johnson is a whiz at handling pitchers) and Todd Greene (finally appears healthy), although I'm sure you can come up with a few of your own if you look.

Stick with proven players.
Rookies are great if you're in a keepers league and have time to develop a young player, but they probably won't perform at a high level in the first year, unless you're talking about J.D. Drew. There's also always the chance that your rookie will struggle and be sent down, in which case he has no value to you. Don't confuse "proven players" with "proven veterans," i.e., don't draft Cal Ripken Jr. when Scott Rolen is available.

Beware potential disappointments.
Watch out for those players who had a career year last season...at age 32. In particular, I'd avoid Scott Brosius, Jose Offerman, Mickey Morandini, and Ellis Burks, among others. Also keep an eye on older players who seem to be on the way down, including Ken Caminiti, Roberto Alomar, and Jeff Montgomery. If you have the urge to draft Jose Canseco, bang your head against the wall while shouting "I will not draft Jose Canseco!" Repeat as needed.

Take a chance or two.
If you're in an AL-only league, you might want to take a risk and draft Curt Schilling of the Phillies, even though he pitches in the NL. The reason? He's supposedly on the trading block, and if he winds up in the AL, he's all yours. I know a guy who used this strategy last season in an NL-only league and wound up with Randy Johnson. Save it for the late rounds, though, possibly your last pick.

Another idea is taking a chance on a hot prospect who doesn't look to start the season at the big-league level, as with Kerry Wood last season. He started the season at AAA, but was awesome once he was called up. This requires a bit more research, since you need to know a team pretty well to have an idea who might get an early shot, although a hunch will work just as well.

Good luck!

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is in a DiamondMind simulation career-type fantasy league which drafts on Saturday. He's no expert, but he'd be happy to field your fantasy league questions at jmb@strikethree.com. If there's enough interest, he might even write a fantasy column now and again.