Rookie Roundup: National League

Jason Michael Barker

Having taken a look at the American League's top rookies on Thursday, it seems only fitting to give the cream of the Senior Circuit crop their due. The NL field is led by none other than J.D. Drew, who appears to be an early lock for Rookie of the Year. A few players on this list might take exception, however.

As with the American League list, this group contains more players than you'll see profiled during the regular season. As spring training becomes the regular season, we'll have a better idea of who's going to get the regular playing time in the majors, and more importantly, who's worthy of being included on the Roundup.

Michael Barrett, C/3B, Montreal.
Outlook: Searching for a position and a job. The Expos need to decide if Barrett is going to end up as a catcher or minding the hot corner, so he can stop worrying about it and focus on hitting. His defense is quite good at either position, especially considering he only learned catcher in 1996, so that isn't much of a concern. Obviously he'd be much more valuable behind the plate, and he's probably already better than the competition, Chris Widger and Bob Henley. Just 22, if he makes the big club he'd be making the jump from AA, where he hit .358/.525 (OBP/SLG).

Barrett improved his power numbers last season, hitting more home runs (19) than he had previously in his minor-league career (12), although he could still use some work on his plate discipline (27 walks in 453 at-bats). He'd probably be better off with a full season at AAA playing just one position, then getting a starting job in 2000, but the Expos don't really have anybody standing in his way at this point.

Ronnie Belliard, 2B, Milwaukee.
Outlook: Waiting for Fernando Vina to be traded. Wonder why the Brewers were so actively shopping Vina this off-season in hopes of landing some much needed pitching? Here's your answer. Belliard played at AAA last season, and put up very impressive all-around numbers for a 2B -- .406 OBP, .503 SLG, 36 doubles, 7 triples, 14 homers, 33 steals and 69 walks, good enough to be named the fourth-best prospect in the league. Given his power and on-base numbers, he's an ideal #2 hitter in almost any batting order, and his defense has improved greatly over the past two seasons.

Lance Berkman, LF, Houston.
Outlook: With Alou out for the season, he could land a starting job. I've heard Berkman described as "Jay Buhner, but with more power," so don't say you weren't warned. Still, Buhner's my favorite player and I think the comparison is unfavorable -- to Berkman. At 22 last season, he tore up AA in his first full season in the minors, hitting .424/.555 with 34 doubles, 24 home runs, and (here's the best part) 84 walks. He doesn't run well and isn't particularly adept in LF, but those minor concerns are laid to rest by his impressive bat and plate discipline.

With Alou out for the year, the Astros have a interesting situation developing in the outfield. Derek Bell figures to be in right, and then you've got Carl Everett and Richard Hidalgo, both of whom play centerfield. Hidalgo is a fabulous young talent, while Everett is 29 and coming off of his best season. My idea would be Hidalgo in center, Bell in right, and a Berkman/Everett platoon in left, but I suppose it'll be up to Larry Dierker. Either way, Berkman is going to be a star in a few years.

Bruce Chen, P, Atlanta.
Outlook: Fifth starter in the always-great Atlanta rotation. The Braves thought enough of Chen that they traded Denny Neagle for Bret Boone this off-season, even though Chen essentially skipped AAA (four starts last season before being called up). I can't condone the addition of Boone, although they had the right idea in making room for Chen, who some have called the top pitching prospect in baseball.

Statistically, there isn't much not to like -- he's posted tremendous strikeout-to-walk ratios, which are a great predictor of future success, and he has excellent control of four quality pitches. He hasn't been overworked, although he did approach 175 innings last season over three levels. Still, the Braves usually know what they're doing when it comes to pitching, and Chen should be one of the game's top starters in a few years. That, and he's left-handed.

Matt Clement, P, San Diego.
Outlook: Member of the 1999 San Diego Padres starting rotation. The Pads' top prospect of either variety, Clement would have made the rotation this year even without the loss of Kevin Brown to free agency. Despite pitching in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League last season, he kept his ERA under 4.00 and led the league with 160 strikeouts. On the other hand, there's his control. Clement has never been known for having outstanding control, but last season was, well, interesting.

In 171.2 innings last season, he walked 85 batters. That doesn't sound all that bad until you notice that he also hit 30 batters, and threw 18 wild pitches. He has good stuff including a fabulous slider, however, and should be a solid pitcher if he can get his wildness under control. Finally pitching in pitcher-friendly park should help, too.

Ben Davis, C, San Diego.
Outlook: Backup, if he wins a job. Like Barrett, Davis would be making the jump from AA if he makes the big club, and with Carlos Hernandez signing a big contract this off-season, it would make more sense for Davis to get in a year at AAA rather than play once or twice a week in San Diego.

Known for excellent defense behind the plate, the 22-year old Davis made big strides at AA last season, cutting his strikeouts while improving his walk rate. He also hit 14 home runs and 29 doubles, leading to a .460 slugging percentage. With continued improvement of his plate discipline and power hitting, he could be a very good catcher in a year or two.

J.D. Drew, RF, St. Louis.
Outlook: 1999 National League Rookie of the Year. I don't know what else there is to say, frankly. He'll start the year in right field, although with his range and strong arm he could handle center with no problems. He's a tremendous hitter, drawing walks and hitting for more than his share of power. He could hit 30 homers next season, and may have a few 50-homer seasons in him. In case you're interested, STATS Inc. projected him at .406/.560 with 96 walks, 29 homers and 34 doubles.

Alex Gonzalez, SS, Florida.
Outlook: Starting shortstop, he'll try to avoid hitting like Toronto's SS of the same name. The Marlins obviously think he's ready, having traded Edgar Renteria to the Cardinals this winter. Gonzalez held his own at AAA last season despite being only 21, hitting .330/.443 with 10 home runs and 10 triples in 422 at-bats. His has good power for his age and position, although his plate discipline leaves something to be desired. At AAA last season he drew just 28 walks while striking out 80 times.

His defense gets good marks despite a weak arm, and he was named the International League's top prospect last season. He's going to struggle quite a bit at first, but if he can continue to develop his power and add a walk or two, he'll be pretty well off. He isn't in the Rodriguez/Jeter/Garciaparra class, however.

Jeff Kubenka, P, Los Angeles.
Outlook: Should have a job in Davey Johnson's bullpen. A personal favorite because he's left-handed and throws a screwball, Kubenka has been dominant everywhere he's pitched, averaging well over a strikeout per inning with excellent control. There's talk of him becoming a closer some day, although he lacks a top-notch fastball. It will be interesting to see how he holds up to a full year's workload, as he's never pitched more than 60 innings in a season thanks to being moved around so much. He was awesome at AAA last season in a hitter-friendly league (40.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 40 SO, 12 BB), so you can imagine how well he should pitch in Dodger Stadium.

Mitch Meluskey, C, Houston.
Outlook: Battling Tony Eusebio and Paul Bako for the starting job, although he's already better than either of them, to be perfectly honest. Meluskey is capable of stepping in tomorrow and providing above-average offense for a catcher, and he's only getting better. His plate discipline is remarkable -- he drew 85 walks at AAA last season against a mere 59 strikeouts, which led to a .465 OBP. He also slugged .584 thanks to 41 doubles and 17 home runs, and all these numbers came in less than 400 at-bats.

Houston already has a fabulous offense, and adding Meluskey makes them that much better. He's still working on his defense, but it's improving and not a concern at this point.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is a lonely fellow, who sits at home memorizing every line of the STATS Major and Minor League Handbooks in order to win any argument regarding how a player performed last season. Test him if you wish when you write him at jmb@strikethree.com, but remember that he even knows what Chris Van Rossum hit for AA Shreveport last season (.161/.268/.226, and no, he's not a prospect).