The Magic 8-Ball

Derek Zumsteg

I've previously predicted that the now-hated "super-franchises" are likely to spend themselves out of contention before long, locking players into untenable contracts. In three to five years, baseball will be much different. My bold predictions for the near-term future of every NL franchise: whether in five years they'll be great, good, average, poor, or terrible. Coming soon: the AL!

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks: Poor. Spend all you want, it won't make any difference. They're making poor personnel decisions, and Travis Lee, like him as I do, isn't going to be able to make up for ghost runners at four other positions. This is going to get really ugly, I think, as Phoenix's love affair with the D-Backs runs up against Colangelo's insanity ploys, rising ticket prices, and the front office's inability to figure out how to assemble a winning team (big hint: wasting roster space on high-priced stiffs is bad).

Atlanta Braves: Average. In five years, the Braves can either continue their winning ways by trading wisely for talent their farm system lacks, giving up pitching they're stacked with for help on the other side of the ledger. More likely is that the recent spate of low-IQ signings and trades by the Braves will continue, and the team will return to first mortality, and then mediocrity. I used to hate the Braves, and then I learned to respect them. I'll be sad seeing them return to mortality. In their division, though, they could keep the division title for a couple more years regardless.

Chicago Cubs: Average. I expect this team to get much worse and then better. There's good talent in the system, and while I don't like Jim Riggleman, I think their front office is decent. Too tied to fan favorites and the older players, they're not going out and signing Ozzie Guillen to tombstone at short as an anti-defense weapon. I think when the Cubs do get much worse, they'll make the right moves and contend again quickly.

Cincinnati Reds: Average. They need to build the farm system and then make good acquisitions after they're heading towards competing on their own. GM Bowden has made some great moves in trades this year, resulting in a bizarre stockpiling of 1B/LF talent, importing some veterans, and making some waiver claims. I don't think they're going to be able to sign players who want to play for the Reds to below-market contracts anymore; Bowden's cold-hearted stabbing of both Brantley and Shaw will likely haunt him in years to come. I'm giving credit to Bowden in that I think he'll be able to keep this team average with more smart acquisitions.

Colorado Rockies: Poor. Planet Coors can't sustain them forever, and Jim Leyland's a bad manager. What in the world is the world famous young pitcher destroyer going to do in a stadium that almost automatically makes for bad outings? I shudder to think. The team's record of acquisitions is poor. I pity Todd Helton, who deserves to play for an organization with a clue.

Florida Marlins: Good. Many people think this is a team loaded with prospects that will pay off come 2001, and I disagree. I think the Marlins will return to competitiveness quickly, and with a steady, smart increase in payroll, they'll be in a great position to take advantage of today's super-franchises when they start to die. Their GM has shown he knows how to adapt quickly to wildly varying circumstances and is the ideal choice for this kind of forward-looking assignment. Bilks lesser GMs ruthlessly.

Houston Astros: Excellent. Not that I'm in love with this franchise or anything, but they're so cool. In the last three years, they rival the Braves and Yankees for wins while competing with a much smaller payroll. They make smart moves, develop good talent, sign good players to good contracts, and generally behave like there's a light on upstairs. I expect in coming years the Dierker-Hunsicker axis of power will only continue to succeed, developing good talent from the farm and taking smart risks to keep reeling off 100-win seasons. If other GMs were smart they'd learn lessons from the teams that win like this: developing good home-grown talent, making adjustments with the right trades and signings, and paying attention to OBP and underrated talent. They're not smart, though, so the secret's safe.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Average. This is a cop-out. I think this team's future stinks. Lasorda's terrible record as a GM last year, combined with other suspect acquisitions, has made this team a certain stinker in two years. But they've got Davey, and he'll win. The Dodgers are rich and have a farm system that can, in a couple of years, provide players ready to replace Gary "Asshead" Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, and the like as their contracts expire. Hopefully, they'll have a GM by then who will know better than to re-sign them.

Milwaukee Brewers: Terrible. And no one will care. What a crappy franchise, run by crappy people, managed like a crew of interchangeable thugs. I was happy to see this franchise, which played "NL ball," fail utterly to succeed in the NL. Small baseball doesn't work, ever. Get on base and hit for power, and you shall see the light at the top of your division. This is a franchise we should be talking about bringing to a merciful end. I don't think anyone would notice.

Montreal Expos: Terrible. In five years the farm system may have started to produce some more prospects, and maybe Jim Beattie can continue to bilk idiot GMs out of players for stiffs like Mark Grudzielanek. But that can only get you so far. Every time I think of the Expos, I think of what 1994 might have been. They may well have won it all, and denied their chance, they've been forced into this dance of poverty. They need to move, but where?

New York Mets: Average. They'll look good for a couple of years with their current batch of signings, and Mike Piazza could keep any team in shouting distance of .500, but they're making moves to chase a wild card position for the next few seasons, and then they're going to drop. The Mets give away too much and spend on the wrong things. They need a smart, savvy GM, like the wily franchises have, so they can build a winning team that can sustain itself.

Philadelphia Phillies: Poor. This isn't a team making smart moves, and it hasn't made smart moves in a while. Yech. Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen deserve much better than this.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Poor. What in the world is this franchise doing? It can't seem to decide whether to rebuild or just strangle itself. Can't address its own problems, can't see that Tony Womack's a stiff...there's talent in the system, but I have this bad feeling they're going to sign veterans at all the wrong positions, block rising talent, open gaps in other positions, and then it's going to get ugly.

St. Louis Cardinals: Good. I'm of two minds about the Cardinals. At once they're willing to pay whatever they need to to get J.D. Drew and like prospects, but on the other hand Tony LaRussa is going to melt his starters into an ugly heap while hashing on them in the press, and that's not where you build a winning team. I see the two coming out together. You can always bandage a suspect rotation together from random flotsam if the need be. The trick is to score so many runs it doesn't matter. With Drew, the Cardinals can do this. Likely to compete for the wild card spot and keep the Astros honest for years to come.

San Diego Padres: Average. They're going to be worse, probably much worse, for the next two years, and this will be a great window when they can trade off whatever veterans are hanging around for decent talent, keep Gywnn around to fill seats, and compete for real. I suspect they'll screw up -- this isn't a franchise known for its outstanding market acumen, and instead of coming back in 2002 with a young, talented squad, they'll be mixed with veteran stiffs and missing some of their prospects in random trades.

San Francisco Giants: Average. I used to be a huge Giants fan back in the Will Clark days, but Brian Sabean is an idiot, and while I like Dusty Baker personally, and he's managed to get good season out of players I don't bother to think of while not reviewing box scores (Marvin Benard, Charlie Hayes), I think Sabean, flush with new stadium money, will spend it stupidly. What a rosy outlook for the NL West.

about the author

Derek Zumsteg is currently laying low after he discovered that Gary Sheffield has read his work. Offer a list of Salman Rushdie's old haunts at dmz@strikethree.com.