For St. Pete's Sake

Dave Paisley

Last year the two expansion teams both got banged around pretty hard, and the standard defense would be that, well, they're just expansion teams and everyone knows they bite for a few years. However, it's not like they didn't throw some money around, it's just that they didn't spend it at all wisely. Today, let's concentrate on the atrocities perpetrated in Tampa Bay last year, because they are about to be thrust upon the poor, innocent citizens of the Gulf Coast once again in 1999.

To be quite honest, Tampa Bay did a nice job of putting together a decent pitching staff last year, especially when you consider that Tropicana Field was quite friendly to hitters with a runs scored park factor of 108. Their team ERA was fourth-best in the league. Unfortunately, it was also fourth best in their division and was unsupported by any kind of offense.

Rolando Arrojo, Wilson Alvarez, Tony Saunders and Julio Santana all did a very respectable job with very little to show for it in 1998. In the bullpen, Esteban Yan, Albie Lopez and Jim Mecir very ably supported a sometimes shaky Roberto Hernandez. The main thing about the Devil Rays' pitching, though, was that except for Alvarez and Hernandez it was awfully cheap.

Overall, their pitching can be described as something of a pleasant surprise.

The same can't be said of their offense, though. It was every bit as dreadful as expected, and if at all possible, worse. The Rays threw a bunch of money at Fred McGriff, a nice enough guy, but someone that no Atlanta fan missed at all. Fred opened the year with a monster month of April, leaving many of us wondering of all he had needed was a change of scenery.

It didn't last, however, and his numbers slipped to the truly miserable in May and June and recovered to respectable by the end of the year. Still a long way under his career numbers, but enough to stave off embarrassment.

The other big offensive signing was Paul Sorrento, who had spent a very nice couple of years in Seattle under Lou Piniella. This off-season, the Rays picked up bat-for-hire Jose Canseco, creating a logjam of overpriced hackers. It's possible that the Rays will find ways to play them all, but they could also be looking to unload Sorrento before the season opens.

Continuing at 3B, Wade Boggs keeps the aging, declining veterans theme alive. A part-time player who has irrevocably lost his power and whose on-base average is now at risk, Boggs will play enough to get the 78 hits he needs to reach 3000. As he hasn't failed to get 100 hits in any season in his career so far, I'd say he's a sure bet. Won't help the team win much, though.

The remainder of the infield is best described as a sucking chest wound. Miguel Cairo isn't particularly spectacular, but Kevin Stocker was a black hole at short. However, middle infield backup Aaron Ledesma hit better than both of these clowns while subbing for them, providing a very weak ray of sunshine. Worst of all, though, is the Rays' idea that if you can't have one good catcher, two bad ones will somehow make up the difference. John Flaherty was simply awful, which resulted in Mike DiFelice getting almost as much playing time.

With most teams, there's usually a saving grace somewhere, and you might be thinking that perhaps the outfield is it for the Rays. But you'd be wrong. Not entirely, as young (well, young by Devil Ray standards) Bubba Trammell is a bright spot in left field. Unfortunately, the Rays seem to find lots of ways not to play him, by playing guys like Randy Winn instead. Meanwhile, Quinton McCracken isn't too bad in center. He's no Griffey, but he's all right. Last year in right field, Dave Martinez survived half a season before giving up the ghost. His batting was pretty awful anyway, so it was more of a mercy than anything else.

If you're paying careful attention, you'll notice that I didn't have to dip into the superlatives at all when describing the Rays' offense.

The curious thing about the Rays last year was that as bad as the offense was, they made the absolute least of the offense they did generate. From their league low .706 OPS they should have generated about 680 runs, but only scored 620. (Contrast that with Minnesota's .717 OPS and 734 runs scored.) Those missing runs would have won them about 7 games more and pseudo-respectability.

What of this season? Adding only Canseco on offense, the best they can expect is a team OPS around .720. That will still be dead last or close to it with just over 700 runs scored (provided that underachieving isn't a habit with them.) Fortunately, improvement in the pitching staff could reduce the team ERA to around 4.10 and only 720 runs given up. The biggest improvement in pitching should come from Hernandez and Alvarez if they can somehow get motivated.

If all that pans out, this team could win 79 games.

Surprising? It was to me when I ran the numbers. I'm not sure that I believe it even now, but the fact remains that the pitching staff performed very well and may even get better this year. The problem last year was a really, truly, desperately awful offense, and I'm not sure it can be quite that bad again.

While the Rays have stayed pat for the most part in the off-season, their freshmen chums, the Diamondbacks, have done anything but. Stand by for a look at the Rays' prospects in my next article.

about the author

Each day, Dave Paisley looks up the list of remaining free agents, notes that one particular person is still listed, and cries a solitary tear for Doug Drabek. Okay, so he doesn't. Write him anyway at drdjp@strikethree.com.