Out of His Gord?

Dave Paisley

So Roger Clemens finally got his wish to be traded to a "contender." And what a contender it is now. I wrote a while ago that with the Yankees standing pat it would be an interesting experiment in repeatability to see how things turn out this year. So much for that, and out the window goes the repeatability experiment.

It seems to be a popular misconception that because David Wells was a contender for the Cy Young award last year that he must be almost as good as Roger Clemens. The fact is that while Wells is a good pitcher, he isn't in the same class as The Rocket (not many people are, mind you, so it's no disgrace.) What helped Wells last year was incredible run support from the Yankee offensive juggernaut. Wells was the beneficiary of 6.84 runs per nine innings last year, almost two full runs higher than Clemens' measly 4.99 (which was just a shade under league average.)

If he'd been able to make three more starts to match Clemens, he would probably have finished the year 21-4 and possibly stolen the Cy. It would have been a travesty, but such is the nature of BBWAA voting. Evidently his perfect game and that run support are why 40% of ESPN web voters think the Blue Jays got equal value in the trade, and they're wrong. If we flip the run support, Clemens would have finished around 22-4, while Wells would have been 14-8.

Wells is a decent pitcher, but last year was one of his best and he is unlikely to repeat or exceed it. As recently as '96, his ERA was a terrible 5.14 for Baltimore, and he could very easily tumble back to that form. Clemens, on the other hand, has become unstoppable since he left Boston and a situation that was obviously affecting his play. I can hardly imagine how much he will love playing for the Yankees and sticking it to the Red Sox. Not that the rivalry needed any more spice, but there it is, whether they need it or not.

So the Yankees gain the number one pitcher in the AL at a bargain price for two years (about $8M per year), giving up an inferior pitcher who was only signed for one more year and a couple of makeweights. Clemens will undoubtedly demand that his contract be renegotiated for next year, but will that bother the Yankees? Not a chance -- they'll probably sign him for another five years.

The mystery in all of this can be stated simply: What the heck were the Blue Jays thinking?

• Do they really think Wells is almost as good as Clemens?
• Did they believe that they really needed a replacement for Paul Quantrill? Lefty setup guys are pretty handy to have around, but worth pulling the trigger on this deal? Lloyd is two years older than Quantrill and is only good for half the innings. Surely that couldn't be it.
• Did they think Joey Cora would be so awful at second that they needed the light-hitting but speedy Homer Bush? Remember, speed never slumps. (Unless you're Vince Coleman and you get run over by a tarp...)
• Did they think that Clemens would tank and drag the team down the way Randy Johnson apparently did in Seattle last year? This time last year the Mariners were looking invincible in the AL West, yet the mysterious malaise swept the entire pitching staff and wiped out the season before it really got started. Was Gord Ash thinking the same thing would happen to a promising young Blue Jay squad that's just emerging as a viable playoff candidate?
• Did they think that bringing David Wells back would soothe the fans and make them forget the guy who just won back-to-back Cy Young awards? You'd have to think not, except that there may be one scenario where this makes sense.

But wait, I think I have it figured out. Hark back to the heyday of SCTV and remember when Doug and Bob McKenzie, those beer-swilling denizens of the Great White North ruled the roost, eh? When I think of "baseball" and "beer-swilling denizen", the first player that springs to mind is, of course, David Wells. Remember the spring training bar fight in '97?

It's obvious that the McKenzie brothers have somehow infiltrated Blue Jays management and obtained their favorite player no matter what the cost. Either that or they got Gord Ash wasted on Labatt Blue just before the now infamous phone call to Brian Cashman.

So there you go. Mystery solved. Happy to help.

Beauty, eh?

about the author

Dave Paisley used to be a Canadian resident, but was booted after he refused to order a pizza with "back bacon." Explain that we don't refer to American cheese as "back cheese" at drdjp@strikethree.com.