Hip, Hip, Hey Rey!

Dave Paisley

The shock waves are still subsiding from the scintillating news item released on Tuesday. Yes, Rey Ordoñez, the man who wonders what that round wooden stick is for, received a whole wad of cash for "playing" baseball this season. Here's how it came across the Strikethree.com news desk:

NEW YORK, New York - SS Rey Ordonez agreed to a $1.65M, one-year contract Monday, avoiding salary arbitration. Ordonez, who hit .246 with one homer and 42 RBI but won his second straight Gold Glove last year, was asking $2.275M to the team's offer of $1.25M, but likely offered to settle so it wouldn't affect his hitting...

After making a paltry $320K last year, the arbitration eligible Ordoñez was asking for a 611 percent raise. The Mets offered 290 percent, and they settled on a mere 416 percent. I sure wish my salary negotiations were that lucrative. Let's face it -- if you make it to arbitration, you win whether you win, lose, or settle out of court.

Now, nobody begrudges Rey the opportunity to make a buck, but here's a guy who either:

a)  Has a fabulous agent;
b)  Knows where the bodies are buried;
c)  Both of the above.

The standard knock against Rey has always been that his offense is terrible, and it surely is mean, here's a guy who has broken .300 only once. I don't mean batting average, I mean on base average or slugging. Yes, in three almost complete seasons, he has broken the magic barrier just once, posting a .303 slugging average in '96, his rookie year. Note that he didn't beat it by much.

His fans counter by saying that he plays so brilliantly in the field at short that he makes up for his lack of hitting with pure defense. We'll call this the "Ozzie Smith defense." To be honest, though, he couldn't make up for his lack of offense if they gave him a rifle at short and allowed him to shoot at batters.

But enough of his offense. Rey is supposed to be the defensive magician, delighting ESPN viewers with highlight reel plays. But just how good is that defense? There are no definitive defensive stats to call upon, but one we can rule out up front is the only one people are familiar with: fielding percentage. Face it -- Rodin's "Thinker" (or say, Kevin Elster, for a slightly more mobile example) could put up a pretty good fielding percentage at short. Wouldn't get to many balls, but he wouldn't boot many either. Thus a high fielding percentage, but he'd still be a lousy fielder.

For my purposes, a decent fielding stat is Range Factor. It's simply putouts plus assists per nine innings played in the field. One would expect better fielders with greater range to get to more balls and make more outs. Simple, really.

Unfortunately, there are many factors that can play havoc with such a stat. For instance, a shortstop playing behind a predominantly ground ball pitching staff will see a lot more chances than one who plays behind a fly ball staff. Playing on turf or a badly maintained grass infield will lead to fewer plays made. It all adds up and makes absolute comparisons of fielders almost impossible in the context of one season. A rough average for shortstop range factor in recent years has been about 4.5.

However, over the long haul, we can expect some general trends of good and bad to emerge, and we can certainly test the theories for the differences. So what of Mr. Ordoñez?

I figured there are some natural comparisons to be made. First, we have two guys in the majors right now who have been playing mostly  shortstop for quite some time: Cal Ripken and Barry Larkin. Then we have the up-and-coming superstar shortstop, Alex Rodriguez, whose defense is frequently maligned -- to the point where some believe he'll be playing third within a couple of seasons (but not me, by the way). Finally, we have the recently retired Wiz himself, Ozzie Smith. The following chart shows Range Factor against age for these five guys.

What jumps out at me instantly is the very predictable decline in range factor of the three veterans. Sure, there's some random scatter, but the trend is relentless. And look at Rey -- he barely scrapes into the bottom of the veteran pack for a comparable age. There's nothing to suggest he helps a team get more outs than the average shortstop. He actually finished twelfth out of twenty-eight regular shortstops in '98, right behind Alex Rodriguez.

Speaking of young A-Rod, it's quite evident from the graph that he started playing regularly at a much younger age than this particular peer group, and his defense is inching upwards. It's quite possible he could improve for another couple of years, solidifying his presence at short for years to come.

Finally, note just how much better than the rest Ozzie Smith was. If Rey is supposed to be the new Ozzie Smith, the numbers certainly don't show it.

So is he worth $1.65M? When scrub second-string catchers are making $750K, it's hard to argue against a starting shortstop making a measly two mil or so. On the other hand, in a couple of years, Rey will probably be pulling down $5M+ on the strength of the defensive hype alone, when in reality he'll be Mike Bordick Lite.

about the author

Dave Paisley is currently appearing as Drew Carey's new wacky neighbor, and hopes to put in a good word for Mackey Sasser as a possible series regular. Suggest Gaylord Perry as the cranky new boss at drdjp@strikethree.com.