The Mailman Cometh

Dave Paisley

I just knew when I'd finished the two-part "Battle of the Ages" saga that there'd be someone I left out of one team or the other. I wasn't too concerned, though, because first, I knew those teams were almost as good as they could be, and second, if there were any glaring errors of omission my faithful readers would help me out. And so they did.

So let's go to the old postbag.

Mac writes:

Livan Hernandez (overworked, bad team, high ERA) over Kevin Millwood (not overworked, good team, medium ERA)?

Good points, Mac, but how much of the characteristics you mention are due to the pitcher, and how much due to his circumstances? Being on a bad team managed by Jim Leyland leads to overwork, which leads to a high ERA. Meanwhile, being the fifth guy behind a bevy of Cy Young Award winners allows for a great deal of babying along. Add great run support, and it's no wonder things turned out the way they did for these two guys.

Millwood gets hyped by association. Working in the same rotation as Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz, some of the glamor rubs off on him. The other part of the hype is that he simply plays for the Braves with all the attention that brings. High exposure and low expectations is the low pressure way to start your career. In that respect, you can contrast him with Carl Pavano, who was thrown in at the deep end at an earlier age and is expected to carry much more of the team load, while also playing in the murky obscurity of Montreal. High expectations and low exposure can't be much fun.

If I was to insert Millwood into the lineup, which one of the starters (Valdes, Colon, Pavano, Hernandez or Elarton) would I replace? The two I'd consider are Hernandez and Elarton, Hernandez because he is perhaps the biggest injury risk, and Elarton, simply because he hasn't had as much major league experience. Overall, though, I think I'll stay pat. If it doesn't work out, feel free to razz me at the end of the season, Mac.

Sam writes:

Hmm, I happen to disagree with your pitcher selection there. Both Kerry Wood and Kevin Millwood are "eligible" (Wood will be 23, Millwood will be 24) and even Millwood performed better than Pavano, Hernandez, and Colon. They both have a whole season of MLB experience, the same as Colon and more than Elarton. I think Jaret Wright should also be taken into the consideration of a starting spot; I think he'll be 23 in mid-season.

Well, it's a big fat "D'oh!" on Kerry Wood. It seems that I missed all the young pitchers who feature the word "wood" anywhere in their names. Sam is, of course, correct. There's no way Kerry Wood doesn't make the team. And given that I'm unwilling to have two overworked, broken-down young starters in my rotation, I'll definitely release Livan Hernandez this time.

Sam also picks up on the Millwood theme, but we've already dealt with that. Finally we get to look at Jaret Wright. Wright wasn't an oversight of mine when putting together the initial roster. He has all the makings of a complete flash-in-the-pan. Big post-season splash in '97, very poor year in '98. Much like Livan Hernandez, but without the excuse of being run into the ground by Jim Leyland. Looked at individually, I wouldn't pick him head-to-head over any of the incumbents, so out he stays.

So now my young buck rotation is: Ismael Valdes, Kerry Wood, Bartolo Colon, Carl Pavano and Scott Elarton, with Millwood the next guy in if anything goes wrong.

That improves the 25-and-under team just enough to tie overall with the geezers (age 35 and up) at around 119 wins against league-average competition. Just to reiterate, though, the youngsters should improve this year, while the geezers can be expected to decline overall, so put your money on the young bucks.

Speaking of the geezers, I was just checking out the eligibles for next year, i.e., players who are 34 this year. The obvious changes next year will be Barry Bonds in LF (for Rickey Henderson), Ellis Burks in CF (for Devon White), Kevin Brown in the rotation (for Chuck Finley or Jeff Fassero) and Mike Jackson at closer (for Randy Myers.)

All of those are serious upgrades, so provided none of the rest retire suddenly, the geezers will improve next season. Meanwhile, the young bucks will lose four out of ten pitchers and two out of nine hitters to the 25-year-old age limit. But now I'm getting way ahead of myself.

Finally, back to Sam:

Well, that's about it... hmm, how about a roster of the best benchwarmers? :-)

Mmmmmm, benchwarmers...

<cue rimshot...>

Now that would be the Orioles starting lineup, right?

But seriously folks, that sounds like fun. Why don't you e-mail me your favorite benchwarmer selections, and we'll see what kind of roster we can put together. It may be a great way to do your scouting for the '99 Hacking Mass competition.

about the author

After stealing all those Babe Ruth signatures, Dave Paisley would have gotten off scot-free if he hadn't substituted them with first-graders' drawings of fuzzy bunnies. Wish him a suspended sentence at drdjp@strikethree.com.