Battle for the Ages, Part II:
The Young Bucks

Dave Paisley

Having taken a look at the all-star geezer team a couple of days ago, I promised you a look at an equally stellar array of young talent that would be a match for them. The criteria for inclusion on the youth squad are an age of 25 or younger at mid-season, and sufficient major league experience to establish at least a nominally decent performance level.

There are a few promising young catchers, but Jason Kendall of the Pirates is in a class by himself. If he played for almost any other team, this guy would be a household name. His time will no doubt come, but it won't be happening soon with the Bucs. Honorable mentions to Eli Marrero and A.J. Hinch.

There's a veritable cornucopia of choice at first, but none of the "big three" rookie prospects last year (Travis Lee, Todd Helton, Brad Fullmer) quite broke through in a big way, so I'm picking David Ortiz of the Twins. He had a stunning April before he was injured and was only recovering full form by the end of the season. I expect big things from him this year. Of course, none of the "big three" would be bad choices, either.

There are quite a few choices at second, but no real standouts, so I'm going with a youngster who didn't get much of a chance to play last year - the Indians' Enrique Wilson. Other choices include Tony Batista and Donnie Sadler, followed by Frank Catalanotto and Wilton Guerrero.

Player	Pos	Career OPS	'98 OPS
Kendall	C	.832	.884
Ortiz	1B	.815	.817
E. Wilson	2B	.789	.810
Rolen	3B	.869	.923
Rodriguez	SS	.907	.920
Grieve	LF	.849	.844
A. Jones	CF	.791	.836
V. Guerrero	RF	.905	.960
Garciaparra	DH	.898	.946
Average		.851	.882

At third, I get to my second no-brainer, that being the Phillies' Scott Rolen. Amazingly enough, Rolen will still be eligible for this team next year. Adrian Beltre may give him a run for his money then, but with Rolen's development, don't bet on it.

Completing the infield is a really tricky business, because shortstop is home to three of the best under-25 talents in the game, period. Although Derek Jeter gets lumped in with Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra, he really isn't in the same class. He's very good, but if he didn't play for the Yankees, he'd be as famous as, say, Omar Vizquel.

So the choice at short comes down to Nomar or A-Rod. Fortunately, there's a way out of my dilemma, in that there are no under-25 DH's, so I can allocate one of them to that slot. All other things being equal, I'll take A-Rod at short and Nomar at DH, because Alex had a higher range factor last year. Whatever.

The outfield is also brimming with talent, and I quickly settled on Ben Grieve, Andruw Jones and Vladimir Guerrero as my choices. Along the way to those selections, I turned down J. D. Drew, Darin Erstad and Jose Cruz Jr., all good players, but either unproven or just not as good as the starting trio.

Put together, that's a heck of an offense right there that can certainly hold its own with the heavy-duty geezer offense. The problem for the youngsters is in the pitching department. Pitching doesn't mature on as predictable a schedule as hitting, so the pitching staff isn't of the same caliber as the geezers. Of course, matching Clemens, Cone and Johnson isn't easy at any age. Nevertheless, here they are.

Amazingly enough, with four full seasons under his belt, Ismael Valdes is still eligible for this team, and I have no hesitation in slotting him in up front. Last year was up and down, with a month of Randy Johnson trade rumors hanging over him and a few weeks out injured, but he should be in good shape behind Kevin Brown this season. Next up is Cleveland's Bartolo Colon, who emerged last year as the de facto ace of the Indians' staff, although he did end the year poorly.

Next up is '97's postseason darling, Livan Hernandez. Although overrated and overworked in '98,  he's still definitely worth a rotation spot. After that, it gets a little tricky, but I'll take Montreal's Carl Pavano, who should emerge strong after a year of seasoning in the majors. My final pick is the Astros' (soon to be Blue Jays'?) Scott Elarton. Although he only had a September cup of coffee, his promise is enough to vault him into the fifth rotation slot.

Starters	Career ERA	'98 ERA
Valdes	3.23	3.98
Elarton	3.32	3.32
Pavano	4.21	4.21
Hernandez	4.23	4.72
Colon	4.32	3.71
Average	3.86	3.99
Bullpen	Career ERA	'98 ERA
Urbina	3.32	1.30
Anderson	3.27	3.27
Escobar	3.50	3.73
Howry	3.15	3.15
Mantei	3.96	2.96
Average	3.44	2.88

The bullpen is a curious assortment, as the term "young closer" is almost an oxymoron. However, we can thank God for Montreal, who really have no option. Hence, I have no hesitation whatsoever in inking Ugueth Urbina. After that, it's a bit of a crapshoot, but I'll take, in no particular order, the Tigers' Matt Anderson, the Jays' Kelvim Escobar, the White Sox' Bob Howry and the Marlins' Matt Mantei.

Only Escobar has more than about 50 innings, so this is an inexperienced pen, but they all seem to have what it takes. Narrowly missing the cut was Seattle's Jose Paniagua, who seemed to regain his early promise last year.

Based on '98 performances, the offense on this team would generate 1019 runs against league average pitching, while the pitching staff would only give up 642, assuming the starters pitch 1000 innings and the pen picks up the rest. That run differential would lead to 116 wins, 3 less than their aged counterparts.

In a full season head to head, the 35+ team would win about 83 games based on last year's performance levels. However, it isn't unreasonable to expect the 25 and under team to improve considerably this year over last, while it's equally likely that the 35+ team will fade. Overall, I'd expect that difference to tip the tables in favor of the young bucks.

I'll be tracking my two team selections against each other all year and providing periodic updates. I'd love to hear your thoughts on who you think should have been on the teams and how you think they'll do this year, so fire away.

about the author

Get in your car. Drive northwest without stopping for rest, while continuously listening to Led Zeppelin II. Find your way to a back alley in downtown Seattle, and knock on the third door on the left. Give the password, "Travis Lee should improve this year," and you'll be escorted to a private meeting with Dave Paisley.