A Battle for the Ages

Dave Paisley

Now that the last chip has been dipped, the last beer swilled, the latest Super Bowl patsies, well, patsied, we're finally into the stretch drive towards spring training, thank God. Well I guess there's the "Pro" Bowl left, but that only keeps a few dozen people occupied at best.

No, it's finally time to look ahead to another season of promise and wonder.

And I got to wondering, what with all the retirements in the off-season, just how good a team I could make out of the over-the-hill gang. Defining over-the-hill as age 35 and up (official age this season as of July 1) seemed to give me a decent pool to work with. Another criterion was that the players must be planning to play this season and that they're only eligible for positions they have played recently, prohibiting me from picking Mike Stanley as a catcher, for instance.

Possibly the weakest position on the oldsters is catcher. Not surprising really, as catching tends to wear players out before they reach 35. The best everyday catcher right now is probably Terry Steinbach, but I'm going to cheat slightly and take career part-timer Jim Leyritz for a little more offense.

At first base, it's a big fat no-brainer as Mark McGwire just moved into eligibility range. While it would take a telescope to see his nearest competition, Will Clark, Andres Galarraga and Mark Grace would all be decent choices for second place.

At second, the pickings are fairly slim, but with an excellent '98 season, Tony Fernandez is a shoo-in over Mike Devereaux and Shawon Dunston.

Third base is more interesting, as future Hall-of-Famers Wade Boggs and Cal Ripken are the big names, but Ken Caminiti is a better choice right now if he can stay healthy. There's more risk, but a higher payoff.

Player	Pos	Career OPS	'98 OPS
Leyritz	C	.790	.851
McGwire	1B	.967	1.222
Fernandez	2B	.738	.810
Caminiti	3B	.787	.862
Larkin	SS	.832	.901
Henderson	LF	.830	.723
D. White	CF	.735	.791
Gwynn	RF	.847	.865
E. Martinez	DH	.944	.994
Average		.830	.891

Shortstop is a cakewalk for Barry Larkin, who not only has the competition beat on career numbers, but also bounced back strongly in '98, far outclassing any rivals.

The outfield can also take its toll on a player, but there are plenty of eligible candidates out there still playing every day. Rickey Henderson may have lost some pop, but his skill at getting on base is still probably the best use of the left field spot. Viable alternatives include Tim Raines, Tony Phillips and maybe Dante Bichette. All right, I was kidding about Dante.

In center, the best of a relatively weak bunch is Devon White. Apparently the Dodgers do, too. When the opposition consists of Otis Nixon and Stan Javier, it's not really a close call. Right field features a pretty good crop, with Darryl Strawberry (maybe a stretch defensively), Paul O'Neill, Tony Gwynn and Eric Davis. It's a tough call, but I'll take Gwynn. O'Neill may be the only candidate likely to stay healthy through a full season, but I just don't care for the whining.

At DH, there just isn't anyone to compare with Edgar Martinez. The consummate professional, Martinez completely eclipses the likes of Harold Baines, Chili Davis and Mike Stanley.

On the pitching front, there's a wealth of talent oozing from  the Geritol gang. An easy first pick is Roger Clemens. Not only has he had an amazing career, he is as good now as he ever was. Backing him up in the #2 slot is Randy Johnson, who showed last season in Houston that he's as dominating as ever when his head is in the game.

Marginally behind those two is David Cone, who had a slightly off year for him while still winning 20 games and a World Series ring. Sticking with a mostly American League flavor, my rotation is filled out by Jeff Fassero, who has toiled in relative obscurity in Seattle the last two years, and Chuck Finley, ditto in Anaheim. Quite a rotation.

Starters	Career ERA	'98 ERA
Clemens	2.95	2.65
Johnson	3.36	3.28
Cone	3.17	3.55
Fassero	3.40	3.97
Finley	3.66	3.39
Average	3.31	3.37
Bullpen	Career ERA	'98 ERA
Myers	3.19	4.92
Assenmacher	3.35	3.26
Cook	3.80	2.38
Fossas	3.90	5.96
Mulholland	4.20	2.89
Average	3.69	3.88

In the pen, the choice of closers is somewhat slimmer. The best choices are probably Randy Myers and Rick Aguilera, but both had off years in '98 and neither may be up to the task this season. However, I'll take a flyer on Myers. Rounding out the pen are a bunch of wily lefties, Paul Assenmacher, Dennis Cook, Terry Mulholland and, just to show that any lefty can get a job, Tony Fossas.

So just how good would this team be?

The offense's average OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) last season was a healthy .891 and based on scoring rates from last year, that would be expected to yield 1035 runs scored against league average pitching. Assuming that the starters pitch 1000 innings between them and the pen picks up the rest, they can be expected to give up 627 runs against league average hitting (including an allowance for unearned runs.)

That translates to about 119 wins, 5 better than the awesome 98 Yankees. So don't talk to me about "over-the-hill."

Rather than pit this team against league average, though, I got to wondering how such an aging all-star team would stack up against a team of youngsters, specifically age 25 and under. Tune in next time to find out what that team looks like and how they fare against this grizzled bunch.

about the author

Dave Paisley spends his off hours genetically engineering the perfect starting pitcher. If you know a way to get a skin sample from Sandy Koufax, let Dave know at drdjp@strikethree.com.