How The West Was Dumb

Dave Paisley

The last division in this cycle is home to my home team, the Seattle Mariners, so I definitely have a vested interest in its outcome. Recent history has held fairly constant, with the Rangers, Mariners and Angels battling for the division title with the once-mighty Oakland A's reduced to rubble after their K-Mart shopping sprees of the '90s. Of late, the division has usually been won with about 90 wins and is usually competitive down the stretch. So what's the scoop this year?

The Angels are a curious bunch. They usually have a decent nucleus, but just can't quite manage to put the rest of a team around it to make the playoffs, or they just have horrible injury luck. Last year, Tim Salmon's foot problem forced them to juggle the lineup to allow him to DH, and it looks like that will continue in '99. The acquisition of Mo Vaughn means that Darrin Erstad can move to the outfield where his numbers are much more suited. If Salmon can stay healthy enough to bat all season, he and Vaughn should make a decent core for the lineup.

Throw in Erstad and Edmonds and there's half an offense. Unfortunately for Anaheim, the rest consists of the likes of Gary DiSarcina and Garrett Anderson. DiSarcina had a pretty spectacular year last year -- for him, and given that he's a shortstop. Anderson seems to have tapered off at the level of a slightly-below-average left fielder. Unfortunately for the Angels, his peak trade value has probably come and gone. Overall, the offense has just a few too many question marks to be anything better than average.

Their pitching looks pretty good, with Chuck Finley, Tim Belcher and Ken Hill providing a veteran core. Jason Dickson had a poor year last year, and will have to demonstrate some improvement to hang on to his starting spot, while Jarrod Washburn will get a chance to fill out the rotation. Jack McDowell got the durability question out of the way early this year, breaking down before spring training has even started. He's out for the year, and probably done for his career.

However, the Angels also have Steve Sparks and Omar Olivares for the rotation if necessary, so McDowell shouldn't be missed too much. Troy Percival was pretty wild last year, giving up almost as many walks as hits. Fortunately for him, he didn't give up many hits. The rest of the pen is modestly decent, although they'll have to get by without Pep Harris. It doesn't look like the Angles will change much this year. A few different faces, same result.

The Rangers have been out on a big shopping spree, if you count the trades they made at the end of last season. They traded for Todd Stottlemyre, then lost him to free agency but got Mark Clark instead. They kept Esteban Loaiza and Royce Clayton, and finally got Rafael Palmeiro back. That's a bit more slugging than Will Clark, but not much difference otherwise. They'll definitely be a potent team on offense once again, with Palmeiro, Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez and Rusty Greer. The remainder should be adequate.

Meanwhile, over in the pitching department, Rick Helling and Aaron Sele will find it harder to win 39 games between them without disproportionate run support. Last year they were the right guys in the right place at the right time. That magic was gone by the end of last season, and it will be merely fluky if it happens again this year. Mark Clark is unlikely to be better than average, while John Burkett was close to putrid last year. Esteban Loaiza wasn't exactly great either.

Overall, it's a staff without an ace. Look forward to a lot of high-scoring firefights. The one bright pitching spot is John Wetteland, but he needs a lead to be of much use. Again, not much change for the Rangers over last year. They're perhaps a little more solid offensively, but they haven't really made any progress on the pitching front at all.

Oakland has been a team on the rise for a while, but it's been awfully slow, and they've been held back by the total lack of a pitching staff. Unwilling to spend big bucks for big names, they gambled on Kenny Rogers last year and were rewarded by a performance that got him to the fringes of the Cy Young race.

Tom Candiotti didn't work out quite as well, but he was still better than what they would have thrown out there instead. They'll try throwing Tim Worrell, Jimmy Haynes and Blake Stein out there this year to see what sticks, but even a Cy Young performance from Rogers won't save this staff from annihilation.

Offensively, the big gun is Ben Grieve, but he'd merely be the fourth or fifth weapon on a good team. Matt Stairs and Jason Giambi are the remainder of the real offensive threat, although Tony Phillips should add some provocation at the top of the lineup and perhaps keep the Oakland fans and police on their toes. But let's face it -- the addition of Mike Macfarlane at catcher and Marc Newfield in the outfield isn't exactly going to put this team over the hump. Expect last place again.

So it's on to the Mariners. Here's another team apparently dedicated to mediocrity. It's strange to say with the likes of Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, but none of the team's offseason moves have really done much to improve matters. On offense, the big problem is Jay Buhner's right arm. Offseason surgery will mean he's unable to play right field, so he'll be limited to first base, or perhaps even DH. That displaces David Segui into the outfield, and possibly puts Edgar Martinez at first for a while. None of that bodes well defensively, and Buhner's bat will be a big question mark anyway.

Signing John Mabry adds some flexibility defensively, but nothing offensively. Russ Davis seems bound for other places, if only the right deal can be made. That paves the way for David Bell to get some playing time. The only sure things are Griffey in center, Rodriguez at short and Wilson behind the plate. The rest is a hodge-podge that will only be resolved after another trade or two.

On the mound, Jeff Fassero and Jamie Moyer will provide their usual low-key genius, while Butch Henry will attempt to put in a full season on the mound. Don't hold your breath. Rounding out the rotation will be some combination of Ken Cloude, John Halama and Mark Leiter. The bullpen has once again been cleaned out, so we'll see if retread Jose Mesa can rebuild his life and close games again. If he fails, Mark Leiter awaits, as does the much better and younger Jose Paniagua. But who would trust manager Lou Piniella to get it right this time? Not me, that's for sure.

The really good news for Mariner fans is that Bobby Ayala will be gone, somehow, some way. And just to hark back to the Microsoft spell checker, is it any coincidence that one of its alternate suggestions for Ayala is "anal"? I'll leave any inferences as an exercise for the reader (and sure, go try that spell checker...)

So what's the score in the AL West? I expect that Texas is the most predictable and will win 85-90 games. Seattle could get lucky and win as many as 90 games, but they could also fall apart and win 75. Overall, though, I expect they'll finish second. The Angels just seem to have a few more questions, and I expect them to be close, but third in the division. Oakland just doesn't have any pitching again, and will finish last, but maybe not by a whole lot.

about the author

Dave Paisley has just been added to the cast of TV's "Frasier." Join the gang's wacky antics as Dave takes 'em to the KingDome to heckle Juan Gonzalez. Send your story treatments to drdjp@strikethree.com.