AL East II: The Revenge

Dave Paisley

So what's up with that wacky American League East? Home of the relentless New York Yankees, the coming year will be an interesting experiment in repeatability. The pitching staff of Wells, Cone, Hernandez, Pettitte, backed up by Rivera, Lloyd and Nelson is still pretty formidable. Meanwhile, Posada, Martinez, Knoblauch, Jeter, Brosius, Williams, O'Neill, Ledee and Chili Davis will have no problem clobbering opposition pitching. However, last year's effort was a result of everything going right, and it remains to be seen how far they'll fall short when the pixie dust wears off. Of course, even with a big drop, they could still win 100 games.

Their competition is, of course, the entire American League, but the fight for the AL East division will be interesting again in itself. Boston has lost a little in offense with the departure of Mo Vaughn, and it's doubtful they can recover it elsewhere, especially with one of the lightest hitting outfields around. Nomar Garciaparra takes over as the big slugger in the lineup - a heavy burden for a guy with all those twitchy nervous habits.

The Bosox' pitching should be solid with Pedro Martinez heading up the rotation, but Saberhagen, Portugal and Wakefield are either fragile or suspect. The fifth starter will come from an assortment of young guys trying to establish themselves. Derek Lowe is probably the best bet, based on last year's performance. The bullpen will be solid, with Gordon backed up by Garces, Corsi and Guthrie. Overall, It looks to me as if the Red Sox have taken a step backward, not because they failed to resign Mo Vaughn, but because they failed to beef up anywhere else to compensate. Jose Offerman just isn't going to make that much difference.

A surprising occurrence over the winter was Roger Clemens' invoking his right to request a trade because he didn't think the Blue Jays were trying to be competitive, especially given their strong finish last year. Backed up by Pat Hentgen, the newly acquired Joey Hamilton and Chris Carpenter, the rotation looks OK, but The toronto bullpen is a little thin, especially with Paul Quantrill's unfortunate "toboggan" accident. The Jays' offense isn't terribly spectacular, but it has fewer holes now, with the development of Shawn Green and Shannon Stewart. Overall, I expect them to be better than the Red Sox.

In the early going last year, the Orioles vied with the Mariners for "biggest disappointment." However, unlike the Mariners, they managed to scrabble back to mediocre by the end of the season, primarily by ditching the overpaid over-the-hill gang they signed early on. However, never a team to spurn a losing strategy, they went fishing at the Mariner reject pond once more. Not satisfied with paying Mike Timlin a ton of money over four years, they felt obliged to pick up utility speedster Rich Amaral and bullpen arsonist Heathcliff Slocumb. I must admit, however, that Slocumb pitched very well after April last year, so he came cheap and may well prove to be a bargain.

It will be interesting to see how the Balto rotation works out. After Mussina, Erickson is at least an inning eater, while Juan Guzman continues to baffle. Will the Orioles get the good Juan Guzman or will his evil twin put in an appearance? On the offensive front, Will Clark isn't much of a drop from Rafael Palmeiro, and Delino DeShields is a decent replacement for Robbie Alomar. Albert Belle is the big-gun addition, while Charles Johnson's defense will be unlikely to compensate for his anemic bat. Overall, an improvement, and the team may well battle Toronto for second place.

There is another team in the division, but we needn't concern ourselves too much with them. Tampa Bay seems content to limp along in last place, just happy to be rubbing shoulders with the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox. Anchoring the rotation, they do have the decent Rolando Arrojo, but the remainder of the rotation is a mystery. Meanwhile in the pen, Roberto Hernandez is wasting away. He didn't pitch particularly well last year, but who could remain focused in that offensive desert?

Offensively, the team has obtained the services of Jose Canseco, adding him to Fred McGriff and Paul Sorrento, thereby cornering the market on aging ineffective sluggers. Throw in Wade Boggs, and this team could be collecting Social Security by the all-star break. Another sad year lies ahead for these guys. I'm guessing they'll finish last.

So overall, then, who could pick any other team than the Yankees to win the division? Certainly not me. Of the rest, I expect to see Toronto, Boston and Baltimore in a close race for second, with the aforementioned Devil Rays way the heck back.

about the author

Dave Paisley is the man who coined the phrase "high can of corn." It comes from a childhood trauma he'd just as soon forget about, so it's best not to ask via e-mail at drdjp@strikethree.com.